President Donald Trump’s first in-person meeting with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, held on December 6, 2025, at the Kennedy Center during the 2026 FIFA World Cup draw, marked a turning point in North American diplomacy. While the world’s eyes were on the soccer tournament—set to be co-hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada—the leaders’ private discussions signaled a recalibration of priorities in a relationship long dominated by border security and immigration. Trade, tariffs, and the economic tremors of global supply chain upheaval took center stage, reflecting how interconnected and volatile the modern economic landscape has become.
According to the Associated Press, Trump and Sheinbaum’s long-delayed face-to-face came after more than ten months in office for Trump and multiple phone calls between the two. Their earlier plans to meet, including a scheduled encounter at the Group of Seven summit in Canada, were derailed by international crises—most notably, rising tensions in the Middle East. When they finally sat down, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney joined them, underscoring the trilateral nature of both the World Cup and the economic relationship cemented by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement.
Sheinbaum, before departing Mexico, had made it clear that tariffs would be high on her agenda. The Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs—25% on automobiles and 50% on steel and aluminum—continues to cast a shadow over Mexico’s export-driven economy. As Sheinbaum put it on social media after the meeting, “We agreed to continue working together on trade issues with our teams.” The sentiment was echoed by a senior White House official, who told AP that all three leaders discussed the opportunities and challenges presented by the World Cup and the broader trade relationship.
Despite the diplomatic pleasantries, the tariff threat remains very real. Trump, in his first term, had threatened sweeping 25% tariffs on all Mexican goods to pressure the country on fentanyl smuggling, only to later pause those plans. Yet, as AP reports, Mexico has not escaped all tariffs, with significant levies still in place on key sectors. Sheinbaum’s government, for its part, has worked tirelessly to mitigate these blows—securing extensions to avoid the broadest tariffs, though some items remain exempt under the USMCA. In October 2025, Sheinbaum announced another U.S. extension, buying time but not certainty for Mexican exporters.
Trade tensions aren’t just a North American affair. The U.S.-China trade war, as detailed by Reuters, has sent shockwaves through the global shipping industry, with American tariffs on Chinese imports spiking as high as 145% before settling at 30%, and China retaliating with a 10% tariff on U.S. goods. The result? American imports from China have more than doubled in cost, prompting a projected one-third decrease in cargo arrivals at the Port of Los Angeles. Recent data shows declines of 31% at LA and up to 40% at Long Beach, the nation’s busiest ports. These disruptions have forced businesses to store goods at ports, hoping for future tariff relief, and to consider shifting supply chains away from China—a move mirrored by North American firms seeking to diversify risk.
The ripple effects are profound. As Reuters notes, cargo ship departures from China have plummeted, causing chaos among shipowners and seafarers. Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and the activities of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet have led to rerouted shipping paths, with some vessels now taking the long way around Africa. For seafarers, these changes mean longer journeys and, in many cases, extended periods without pay. Dockworker unions on the U.S. West Coast are raising alarms about job losses and the risk that American ports and businesses will be sidelined as trade routes shift.
Back in Washington, the Trump administration’s approach to Mexico remains multifaceted—sometimes confrontational, sometimes conciliatory. Trump’s threats of mass deportations and the deployment of the National Guard to Democratic-run cities like Los Angeles, Chicago, and Portland have led to a spike in immigration-related arrests, with most detainees lacking violent criminal histories. The administration insists it is targeting “the worst of the worst,” but the impact on Mexican families and remittances—money sent home by migrants—has been profound. Remittance income, a lifeline for millions of Mexican households, has dropped for seven consecutive months. Sheinbaum’s government lobbied hard against a new 1% U.S. tax on remittances, but the measure was approved and is set to take effect January 1, 2026.
Even as immigration recedes from the top of the U.S.-Mexico agenda—thanks to a steep drop in illegal border crossings—security cooperation remains a flashpoint. Mexico has extradited dozens of drug cartel figures to the U.S., including Rafael Caro Quintero, a notorious figure wanted since the 1985 killing of a DEA agent. These moves have been welcomed in Washington, and Sheinbaum has given her security chief, Omar García Harfuch, greater authority to ramp up efforts against fentanyl production and cartel violence. The contrast with previous years is stark; the DEA once struggled to get visas for agents in Mexico, and trust was at a low ebb.
Still, not all proposals have found common ground. Trump’s suggestion to send U.S. troops into Mexico to combat the drug trade was flatly rejected by Sheinbaum, who argued there was “no way” American forces would be allowed to operate on Mexican soil. She also criticized U.S. strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and Pacific, drawing a line on sovereignty. Trump, never one to hold back, responded with a jab: “The president of Mexico is a lovely woman, but she is so afraid of the cartels that she can’t even think straight.” Sheinbaum, for her part, sidestepped the bait, refusing to escalate the rhetoric. According to AP, this ability to maintain composure—sometimes with a dose of humor—has helped her preserve a working relationship with the White House, even as she pushes back on key issues.
Meanwhile, the broader economic context remains fraught. The USMCA, though still in force, is under review by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, with a joint review process scheduled for July. The specter of further tariffs hangs over North American trade, especially as businesses across the continent reassess their supply chains in light of global disruptions. As Reuters observes, the shipping industry, though resilient, continues to face existential threats—from shifting trade routes and labor unrest to the unpredictable winds of geopolitics.
For now, the Trump-Sheinbaum summit has bought a measure of stability, but the underlying issues—tariffs, migration, and security—remain unresolved. The coming months will test whether the leaders’ cooperative rhetoric can withstand the pressures of domestic politics and global economic uncertainty. As the 2026 World Cup approaches, the spotlight will once again fall on North America, not just for its love of soccer, but for the high-stakes diplomacy playing out behind the scenes.
