It has been a tumultuous autumn for US-Mexico relations, with tensions escalating over a controversial series of American air strikes and a flurry of political barbs exchanged between leaders on both sides of the border. The drama reached a new peak on October 23, 2025, when US President Donald Trump declared at the White House, "Mexico is governed by the cartels," while simultaneously expressing admiration for his Mexican counterpart, Claudia Sheinbaum, whom he called "an extraordinary woman" and "very brave." According to BBC reporting, Trump also lumped Colombia into his assessment of countries he believes are led by organized crime organizations.
But that was hardly the only headline-grabbing moment of the week. Earlier that same day, President Sheinbaum had stood before Mexican reporters and firmly rejected the US’s ongoing bombing campaign in the Caribbean Sea and, more recently, the Pacific Ocean. The air strikes, which began on September 2, have been justified by the Trump administration as targeting drug-smuggling operations. Yet Sheinbaum was unequivocal: "Obviously, we do not agree," she said, as quoted by Al Jazeera. "There are international laws on how to operate when dealing with the alleged illegal transport of drugs or guns on international waters, and we have expressed this to the government of the United States and publicly."
The numbers behind the strikes are sobering. Since the campaign began, at least 37 people have died, according to official sources cited by The Guardian. The US claims it is targeting vessels ferrying narcotics near Venezuela, Colombia, and, more recently, the Pacific coast of Colombia. But the evidence to support these claims has been thin, and the victims have reportedly included fishermen and other civilians. In one particularly alarming incident, Ecuador released one of two survivors from a submarine targeted by US forces, stating there was no evidence of criminal activity. Colombian President Gustavo Petro has said that a fisherman, Alejandro Carranza, was killed in the strikes, and families in Trinidad and Tobago have expressed fears that missing loved ones were among the dead.
Legal experts and human rights officials at the United Nations have sounded the alarm, warning that the US air strikes likely violate international law, specifically prohibitions on extrajudicial killings outside of combat. The campaign has, so far, included nine separate strikes against nautical vessels, the most recent occurring just this past Wednesday, as detailed by Reuters.
Sheinbaum, for her part, has not minced words about Mexico’s position. She has repeatedly stressed the importance of sovereignty and international law. In May, after both leaders acknowledged that the US had offered to send soldiers to Mexico to combat drug cartels, Sheinbaum told reporters, "Sovereignty is not for sale. Sovereignty is loved and defended." She later reiterated, "We cooperate, we collaborate, but there will be no invasion. That is ruled out, absolutely ruled out. We have stated this in every call."
Despite these reassurances, speculation has swirled that the Trump administration is preparing for a more direct military intervention. Early in his second term, Trump announced plans to label Latin American cartels as "foreign terrorist organizations," a move that, while not authorizing military action by itself, raised fears that such a step was on the horizon. In August, reports emerged that Trump had secretly signed an order authorizing US military force against Latin American cartels, fueling anxiety in Mexico and beyond.
Trump’s rhetoric has only added to the uncertainty. In an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Trump stated, "We will hit them very hard when they come in by land. And they haven’t experienced that yet. But now we’re totally prepared to do that." According to The New York Times, the targets of the US campaign have included small boats and, in one case, a submarine allegedly trafficking drugs, but again, independent verification of these claims has been lacking.
All this comes amid mounting economic pressure on President Sheinbaum’s administration. Since Trump’s return to the White House in January, he has made stemming undocumented immigration and curbing drug trafficking top priorities. To that end, the US imposed steep tariffs—25 percent—on exports from both Mexico and Canada in late January, arguing that these measures were needed to hold America’s neighbors "accountable to their promises of halting illegal immigration and stopping poisonous fentanyl and other drugs from flowing into our country."
Faced with the threat of economic pain, Sheinbaum agreed on February 3 to reinforce Mexico’s border with 10,000 National Guard soldiers, hoping to stem the flow of drugs and migrants. Trump, in a phone call, reportedly praised Sheinbaum, saying, "You’re tough." The Mexican president’s ability to negotiate with Trump has even earned her the nickname "the Trump whisperer" in some media circles. Still, the 25 percent tariff was implemented in March, and the pressure only increased from there. In July, Trump threatened to raise tariffs to 30 percent unless Mexico did more to stop fentanyl trafficking, writing on his social media platform, "Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done, is not enough. Mexico still has not stopped the Cartels who are trying to turn all of North America into a Narco-Trafficking Playground." He warned that if Sheinbaum retaliated, he would match her tariffs with additional increases. After a tense call, Trump backed away from the threat, but the message was clear: the US expected more action from Mexico.
The economic squeeze did not end there. In June, the US Treasury sanctioned three major Mexican banks, accusing them of laundering drug money. The banks denied the allegations, but the impact was immediate—several lost access to international financial platforms, further straining Mexico’s economy and its government’s ability to respond to US demands.
For many in Mexico and across Latin America, the US’s increasingly aggressive tactics—both militarily and economically—have raised questions about the balance of power and respect for sovereignty in the region. Sheinbaum’s insistence on defending Mexican autonomy has struck a chord with her supporters, who see her as standing up to a powerful neighbor. Yet, the pressure from Washington remains relentless, and the specter of further escalation, whether through tariffs or military action, looms large.
As the year draws to a close, the fate of US-Mexico relations hangs in the balance. The air strikes have already claimed dozens of lives, and the rhetoric from both capitals shows no sign of cooling. For now, President Sheinbaum continues to walk a diplomatic tightrope, seeking to protect her country’s interests while managing an unpredictable relationship with the United States—a challenge that shows little sign of abating.