The long, complicated relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia has once again taken center stage, as a series of high-profile visits and sweeping announcements signal a renewed—if somewhat qualified—commitment to strategic cooperation. Over the past month, the diplomatic dance between President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has been on full display, with both sides touting major defense, economic, and technology agreements. But beneath the pageantry and press releases, questions loom about the true substance and future direction of this storied alliance.
On November 18, 19, and 20, 2025, MBS embarked on a three-day visit to Washington, a trip that culminated in a lavish White House reception on December 5. President Trump greeted the Crown Prince with all the trappings of state—moving guard of honor, a fly-past, private lunch, and a 300-guest banquet—signaling a robust revival of ties that many observers say had frayed in recent years. According to Defense Priorities, this visit was designed to showcase a U.S.-Saudi relationship that, at least on the surface, is back in full bloom.
Central to the summit was the signing of a Strategic Defense Agreement, which formally designated Saudi Arabia as a "major non-NATO ally." This status, as reported by Defense Priorities and confirmed by the Indian Express, expedites defense cooperation and allows the Kingdom to purchase U.S. weapons more easily. As part of the deal, the U.S. agreed to supply $142 billion worth of military equipment, including the coveted F-35 aircraft. President Trump’s administration framed this as a historic step toward regional stability, while critics noted that similar promises of massive arms deals have often fizzled in the past.
But the defense pact was only one piece of a much larger puzzle. The summit also saw the announcement of cooperation on civil nuclear development, with the U.S. agreeing to help Saudi Arabia develop its civilian nuclear sector. However, as Defense Priorities points out, the nuclear agreement is currently just a “precursor” to a more formal “123” pact, which would require congressional approval and faces an uncertain future. Progress was also made toward collaboration in artificial intelligence, with the U.S. agreeing to sell previously restricted AI chips to Saudi Arabia under a memorandum of understanding. Yet, details remain scant, and observers remain skeptical about how much of these deals will materialize.
Perhaps the most headline-grabbing figure was the Saudi pledge to invest $1 trillion in the United States—an eye-popping sum that MBS reportedly raised from a previous commitment of $600 billion. According to the Indian Express, this number is nearly as large as the Kingdom’s entire GDP and would represent the full corpus of its Public Investment Fund. However, the specifics of the investment—its timeframe, novelty, and enforceability—are unclear. As Defense Priorities notes, “It’s not clear whether the $1 trillion Saudi investment figure is new investment or double-counted, what time period it covers, or if it’s anything more than empty rhetoric.”
The summit also included agreements for the U.S. to help build a Saudi rare earth processing facility, aimed at diversifying the global supply chain and reducing dependence on China. While this sounds impressive, Defense Priorities argues that the threat of Chinese dominance in the rare earth industry is overblown, and the deal is far from producing tangible results.
These developments take place against a backdrop of shifting global power dynamics and a U.S.-Saudi relationship that has weathered many storms. The alliance dates back to a secret “oil-for-security” deal struck in 1945 between President Franklin D. Roosevelt and King Abdul Aziz bin Abdul Rehman al-Saud. Though the U.S. is now the world’s largest oil producer, thanks to shale technology, and Saudi Arabia has diversified its partnerships to include China and Russia, the bilateral relationship remains deeply transactional.
Yet, the past few years have seen significant strains. The 2018 assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, reportedly ordered by MBS, sent shockwaves through Washington. President Biden, during his campaign, vowed to treat Saudi Arabia as a “pariah,” while Congress moved to halt most assistance for the Kingdom’s war in Yemen (though President Trump vetoed the law). More recently, Saudi Arabia has resisted U.S. pressure to formally recognize Israel, conditioning any normalization on the creation of a pathway to Palestinian statehood—a demand Israel has so far rejected. As Indian Express highlights, U.S. support for Israel’s military campaign in Gaza since late 2023 has made it even more challenging for Riyadh to turn a new page with Washington.
Within Saudi Arabia, the visit and its outcomes have sparked debate among members of the Al Saud family, spanning the second, third, and fourth generations. According to reports, some see MBS’s assertive diplomacy and massive investment pledges as a means to cement his grip on power and secure his legacy, while others remain wary of overextending the Kingdom’s resources or tying its fortunes too closely to Washington. The matter of succession and the transfer of power within the royal family remains a delicate issue, with MBS maneuvering to ensure his long-term position.
Despite the high hopes and grand announcements, many experts remain cautious. As Defense Priorities observes, “The deals sound impressive, but most are statements of intent, not enforceable pacts.” The lack of a final communiqué at the summit, as noted by the Indian Express, further underscores the ambiguity. The two sides papered over key differences on oil production, Iran, and the Kingdom’s drive for strategic autonomy. Saudi Arabia’s regional ambitions have grown under MBS, who has also concluded a strategic mutual defense agreement with Pakistan and played a role in regional diplomacy, including the 2023 rapprochement with Iran.
For the United States, the revived alliance is seen as a way to stave off Chinese and Russian encroachments in the Gulf and to maintain influence in a region where it has long played the role of security guarantor. But with the oil market facing a glut—global stockpiles have topped 7.9 billion barrels, according to the International Energy Agency—America’s dependence on Saudi goodwill is arguably less critical than ever. As Defense Priorities puts it, “The path to distancing ourselves from Saudi Arabia remains open. That’s the policy we should pursue, not because MBS is a murderer, but because courting Saudi Arabia doesn’t pay for Americans.”
The White House’s warm embrace of MBS, despite lingering concerns over human rights and regional stability, signals a pragmatic—if uneasy—return to business as usual. As the U.S.-Saudi relationship enters its ninth decade, the old “oil-for-security” paradigm is giving way to new, more nebulous drivers: technology, investment, and a shared desire to shape the regional order. Whether the promises made in Washington will translate into lasting change remains to be seen, but for now, both sides appear content to keep the myth—and the alliance—alive.
