Tropical Storm Melissa, a name now etched into the minds of millions across the Caribbean, has become the latest meteorological threat to sweep through the region, carrying with it the potential for devastation. As of Thursday, October 23, 2025, Melissa was lingering in the central and northern Caribbean, nearly stationary, with maximum sustained winds hovering near 45 mph and moving north at a sluggish 2 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Its lethargic pace, combined with the region’s exceptionally warm waters, has set the stage for what forecasters are calling a "recipe for disaster"—especially for Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.
Melissa’s impacts are already being felt and, if forecasts hold true, will only intensify over the weekend and into early next week. The NHC has issued a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning for Jamaica and southwestern Haiti, including the capital, Port-au-Prince. These alerts are not issued lightly; a hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours, while a tropical storm warning signals that tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours. Residents in these areas have been urged to make preparations swiftly, as high winds and flooding make last-minute actions dangerous, as reported by the Tampa Bay Times.
Melissa’s slow movement is particularly concerning. According to the Washington Post, such sluggish storms can dump relentless rainfall over the same areas for extended periods, dramatically increasing the risk of flash flooding and landslides. For the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica, the NHC predicts between 8 and 14 inches of rain through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Further north and west, including northern Haiti and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. These totals may rise as the storm’s track and speed remain uncertain, potentially prolonging the deluge.
"Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides anticipated in southern Haiti," the NHC warned. This stark assessment underscores the gravity of the situation for communities already vulnerable to extreme weather.
Sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are currently between 86 and 88 degrees Fahrenheit, providing Melissa with ample fuel for rapid intensification. The NHC has noted that while the storm is currently battling strong wind shear—upper-level winds that disrupt storm organization—these inhibiting factors are expected to subside later in the weekend. As the wind shear diminishes and Melissa remains over these bath-like waters, forecasters predict a dramatic strengthening, possibly reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher, with winds exceeding 111 mph) as soon as Saturday, October 25, or Sunday, October 26.
According to Houston Chronicle, “rapid intensification appears likely this weekend and early next week,” and as Melissa intensifies, its wind field is expected to grow and become more symmetric. This means not only stronger winds but also a broader area of impact, increasing the threat to islands in the storm’s path. The NHC has even suggested the possibility of Melissa reaching Category 4 strength by early next week, a scenario that would bring devastating winds and storm surge to affected areas.
Jamaica, in particular, is bracing for impact. As of Thursday morning, Melissa’s center was about 220 miles southeast of Kingston, the island’s capital, and was forecast to move closer in the coming days. Even if the storm’s core bypasses Jamaica, the island will not be spared from heavy rainfall and flooding. Minor coastal flooding is likely along Jamaica’s shores by late Friday into Saturday, but there is also the risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the south coast, as Melissa intensifies and moves closer. The NHC has cautioned that due to the storm’s slow pace and the uncertainty of its track, it is still too soon to determine exactly how high the storm surge could reach.
Haiti and the Dominican Republic are also on high alert. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for southwestern Haiti, from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince. The southern parts of both countries are expected to bear the brunt of the rainfall, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides anticipated in southern Haiti. The slow crawl of Melissa means that rain will continue to fall over already saturated ground, compounding the risk of disaster.
The storm’s future path remains somewhat uncertain, with models showing a spread due to weak steering currents. However, most forecasts agree that Melissa will turn west over the weekend, drawing it closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti. There is also some concern, albeit low at this time, that the storm could eventually pose a threat to Florida. The Tampa Bay Times reported that while Florida’s risk from Melissa is considered low, it cannot be ruled out entirely, a reminder of how quickly hurricane forecasts can shift.
Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba over the next several days, adding to the hazards of big waves and dangerous surf. The National Hurricane Center emphasized that even areas outside the direct path of the storm could experience hazardous conditions due to these swells and the potential for minor coastal flooding.
As the weekend approaches, residents across the Caribbean are being urged to stay vigilant and heed official warnings. Emergency preparations are underway, with local authorities coordinating response efforts and advising communities to prepare for power outages, road closures, and possible evacuations in flood-prone areas. The slow, uncertain march of Melissa is a reminder of the unpredictable nature of tropical cyclones—and the importance of preparation and resilience in the face of nature’s fury.
For now, meteorologists and emergency managers alike are keeping a close eye on Melissa’s every move, hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. The coming days will be critical for the Caribbean’s vulnerable islands as they brace for a storm that could leave a lasting mark on the region.