Amid the muggy heat and mounting anxiety in the northern Caribbean, Tropical Storm Melissa has become the region’s latest—and potentially most dangerous—weather threat of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. By Wednesday, October 22, 2025, Melissa was already dumping heavy rain on parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, leaving officials and residents scrambling to prepare for what forecasters warn could be a catastrophic week ahead.
According to the Associated Press, the slow-moving storm was located about 330 miles south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and roughly 300 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. With maximum sustained winds measured at 50 mph and a sluggish westward drift of just 1 to 2 mph, Melissa’s ponderous pace is cause for concern. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and meteorologists at The Washington Post have both pointed out that such slow movement only increases the risk of prolonged heavy rainfall, flooding, and devastating mudslides.
“People across Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba and Jamaica need to prepare for the increasing threat of torrential rainfall, flash flooding, power outages, and roads being washed out,” warned Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, in comments reported by the Associated Press. “The impacts from Melissa could be catastrophic.”
Dominican President Luis Abinader wasted no time responding to the threat. On Wednesday, he announced that schools in nine provinces under alert would close for two days—Wednesday and Thursday—and that public sector and nonessential private businesses were to shut down by early Wednesday afternoon. Urging residents in flood-prone areas to seek higher ground, officials in the Dominican Republic had already opened shelters for dozens of people, while some 500 voluntary rescue personnel fanned out across the region to assist.
The storm’s impact was already being felt: more than half a million Dominicans found their water supply disrupted as dozens of water systems went out of service. In the capital, Santo Domingo, torrential rains snarled traffic and forced the cancellation of professional baseball league games—a reminder that even before landfall, Melissa’s effects were being felt in daily life.
On the other side of the island of Hispaniola, Haiti was bracing for even worse. A hurricane watch was in effect for the southern part of the country, stretching from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince. Jamaican officials, meanwhile, issued a tropical storm watch and began mobilizing resources. Matthew Samuda, Jamaica’s Minister of Water and Environment, announced that 881 shelters would be made available across the island as needed. The government also ordered all courts to close by Wednesday afternoon and all public schools to close on Thursday, shifting classes online.
Forecasts from the NHC, as reported by WPBF 25 News and WJCL 22 News, suggest that Melissa could strengthen into a hurricane by Friday, October 24, and possibly approach Jamaica and southwest Haiti later in the week. Hurricane conditions are possible in southern Haiti starting Friday, while tropical storm conditions could begin affecting Jamaica late Thursday or on Friday. The NHC cautioned, “Unfortunately, it is becoming increasingly likely that Melissa will become a large and dangerous hurricane.”
Rainfall projections are sobering. Five to ten inches (12 to 25 centimeters) of rain are forecast for southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic through Friday, with even higher totals possible in isolated areas. Jamaica is expected to receive several inches, while lighter amounts are predicted for northern Hispaniola, Aruba, and Puerto Rico.
But the storm’s future path remains a puzzle. As WDSU and WPBF 25 News highlighted, forecast models diverge on exactly where Melissa will go next. Some models show a more westerly track, potentially pushing the storm closer to southern Cuba, while others predict an earlier northeast turn. The consensus, however, is that Melissa will remain in the Caribbean through at least the middle of next week, stalling or moving very slowly, which could prolong the risk of flooding and mudslides.
One thing’s for sure: the storm is expected to intensify. As of Wednesday afternoon, Melissa was still battling wind shear, which was holding back its strengthening. However, meteorologists at WDSU and WJCL 22 News agree that conditions—warm ocean water and decreasing wind shear—are likely to become more favorable for rapid intensification in the coming days. By Monday, October 27, Melissa could reach Category 4 strength, packing winds well above 100 mph and posing a grave danger to anyone in its path.
Despite the uncertainty about Melissa’s exact track, there is little concern about the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico, according to the latest model forecasts. Instead, the focus remains squarely on the northern Caribbean, where the slow pace and potential for stalling could make things much worse. “Flooding is historically the deadliest calling card of tropical systems in this part of the world, and the threat Melissa brings will be no exception,” said Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist and storm surge expert, in comments cited by the Associated Press.
Meanwhile, residents in the region are no strangers to such threats. Haiti, in particular, has suffered devastating floods in past storms due to widespread erosion, poor infrastructure, and limited resources for disaster response. The looming risk of washed-out roads, power outages, and water shortages only compounds the anxiety for those living in vulnerable areas.
Melissa is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, and notably, the first named storm to form in the Caribbean this year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had predicted an above-normal season, expecting 13 to 18 named storms, with five to nine becoming hurricanes and two to five reaching major hurricane status—defined as Category 3 or higher. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, but the most destructive storms often arrive in the later months, when ocean temperatures peak and atmospheric conditions favor rapid intensification.
As the region waits for Melissa’s next move, officials and meteorologists are urging everyone to stay vigilant. Emergency kits are being prepared, shelters readied, and evacuation plans reviewed. The uncertainty in the storm’s path means that even communities outside the immediate forecast cone should keep a close eye on updates from local authorities and the NHC.
For now, with the storm crawling through the Caribbean and its future still uncertain, the best advice is to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. As the days tick by and Melissa’s winds gather strength, the people of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica are bracing themselves—once again—for nature’s fury.