Tropical Storm Melissa, the thirteenth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, has spun to life in the central Caribbean, setting the stage for a tense week across the northern Caribbean islands. While the mainland United States is expected to dodge the worst of Melissa’s wrath, the same can’t be said for Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Cuba, where forecasters are warning of heavy rains, strong winds, and the looming threat of dangerous flooding and mudslides.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Melissa formed on October 21, 2025, about 300 miles south of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and a central pressure of 1003 mb. The storm’s initial westward movement at 14 mph is expected to slow, with a gradual turn to the northwest and then north anticipated over the coming days. This trajectory puts southwestern Haiti and Jamaica directly in Melissa’s crosshairs by late in the week, with the Dominican Republic also bracing for impact.
The NHC has issued a hurricane watch for the southern coast and Tiburon peninsula of Haiti, as well as a tropical storm watch for Jamaica. These advisories mean hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours, prompting residents and local authorities to scramble with last-minute preparations. "Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by Thursday," the NHC emphasized in its latest bulletin, as reported by Naples Daily News.
Forecasters are particularly concerned about the potential for significant flooding and landslides. Melissa is expected to unleash 5 to 10 inches of rain on Haiti and the Dominican Republic through Friday, with additional downpours possible into the weekend. Some models, cited by CNN, suggest that localized rainfall totals could exceed a foot, especially in the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola—a recipe for flash floods and mudslides that could prove devastating.
Puerto Rico and Jamaica are also in line for heavy rain, with 1 to 3 inches expected through Friday. The outer bands of the storm could bring gusty winds and flash flooding to these islands, particularly in urban and low-lying areas. The NHC has warned that flash and urban flooding will be possible across Puerto Rico at least through Friday, though the worst of the storm is expected to skirt the island.
One of the key factors fueling Melissa’s strength is the abnormally warm water in the Caribbean, which is currently running 3 to 4 degrees above average for this time of year. As ABC News notes, these elevated sea surface temperatures are essentially “rocket fuel” for tropical systems, raising the risk of rapid intensification. In fact, Melissa is expected to reach Category 1 hurricane status by Saturday morning, with maximum sustained winds forecasted to climb to 70-80 mph by the weekend.
But if there’s one thing that’s certain about Melissa, it’s the uncertainty. The storm’s future track and intensity remain difficult to pin down beyond the next couple of days. As the NHC puts it, “The future intensity of Melissa is linked to the track and since that is quite uncertain beyond a couple of days, the strength of the storm is also quite uncertain.” Bryan Norcross, a hurricane specialist with Fox Weather, echoed this sentiment, stating, “There is some possibility of it becoming a very strong hurricane before it makes its move to the north. In that case, direct impacts of a major hurricane are possible on Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and/or somewhere in the Bahamas.”
For the United States, the threat from Melissa appears minimal—at least for now. The most likely scenario has the storm curving north and staying well offshore, sparing the mainland from a direct hit. However, a low but non-zero chance remains that Melissa could drift west before being scooped north by a dip in the jet stream, potentially bringing rough surf and rip currents to the East Coast next week. Florida, in particular, has a “medium risk” of tropical rain or wind impacts from October 27-30, according to AccuWeather, though the odds of a direct hurricane landfall are described as “extremely small.”
There are, however, alternate scenarios that forecasters are monitoring. If Melissa misses its northward turn, it could continue west across the Caribbean, drawing closer to Central America—potentially Nicaragua or Honduras—by next week. In this scenario, the northern Caribbean would still endure several days of wet and windy weather, but with lower rainfall totals and a reduced flood risk as Melissa moves steadily west. Alternatively, a late northward turn could bring the storm over Cuba or even toward the Bahamas, with the risk of strong winds and flooding shifting accordingly.
Historical context offers a sobering reminder: late-season storms can and do strike the U.S. In recent memory, Hurricane Nicole made landfall in Florida as a Category 1 in early November 2022, and Hurricane Zeta struck Louisiana as a Category 3 in late October 2020. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs until November 30, and as CNN meteorologist Chris Dolce points out, “tropical systems can still form after that date.”
For now, the focus remains squarely on the Caribbean. The NHC has dispatched an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft to investigate Melissa, hoping to get a better handle on the storm’s structure and strength as it evolves. In the meantime, officials across Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Cuba are urging residents to heed warnings and finalize preparations. The combination of torrential rain, mountainous terrain, and already vulnerable infrastructure makes the region especially susceptible to disaster.
Swells generated by Melissa are expected to reach Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba in the coming days, adding dangerous surf and rip currents to the list of hazards. Even as the storm’s center remains hundreds of miles offshore, its impacts will be felt far and wide.
As the week unfolds, meteorologists and emergency managers alike will be watching Melissa’s every move, hoping for a turn that spares lives and property. But with the Atlantic hurricane season showing no signs of winding down quietly, the northern Caribbean is bracing for whatever comes next.
For millions across the region, the message is clear: stay alert, stay prepared, and don’t underestimate the power of late-season storms.