The Minnesota Timberwolves are seizing their moment as the Western Conference landscape shifts, and Tuesday night’s home clash against the Miami Heat at Target Center is the latest chapter in their determined campaign. With the season nearing its midway point, Minnesota has its eyes on the No. 2 seed, sitting just 2.5 games back and brimming with confidence after a recent run of strong performances. The stakes were high on January 6, 2026, as the Timberwolves (23-13) hosted the Heat (20-16) in a nationally televised showdown, broadcast live on NBC and Peacock at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Entering this matchup, the Timberwolves had every reason to believe they could continue their ascent. They’d already toppled the Heat just three days prior in Miami, walking away with a 125-115 victory that showcased the explosive talents of Anthony Edwards and Naz Reid. Edwards poured in 33 points, attacking relentlessly and getting to the line for an impressive 11-for-14 free-throw display. Reid, meanwhile, came off the bench to torch Miami for 29 points on just 15 shots, maintaining his reputation as a Heat killer—he’s now averaging 19.7 points per game over his last six against Miami, with three games of 20 or more.
“We know what we’re capable of when we stick to our game plan,” said Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch in the pregame press conference, echoing the team’s growing belief. “Miami’s a tough test, but our guys are hungry.” The Timberwolves entered the contest with a 6-3 record against the spread in their last nine outings, and their 12-6 home record at Target Center spoke volumes about their comfort on their own hardwood.
On the other side, the Miami Heat were looking to keep their own momentum rolling. Despite dropping the recent head-to-head, they’d bounced back from a rough stretch—having lost 9 of 11—to win 5 of their last 6, including victories over the New Orleans Pelicans and Indiana Pacers. Yet, Miami’s road record was a shaky 7-10, and the prospect of facing a surging Timberwolves squad in Minneapolis was daunting.
The Heat’s lineup was in flux leading up to tip-off. Tyler Herro, recovering from a toe injury, was listed as questionable, though head coach Erik Spoelstra described him as day-to-day: “We’ll see how Tyler feels before the game. He’s been working hard to get back.” Jaime Jaquez Jr., out with an ankle issue for the previous game, was upgraded to available, while Terry Rozier remained the only definite absence for Miami. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, were nearly at full strength, with only Terrence Shannon Jr. sidelined by a foot injury. Anthony Edwards was a late addition to the injury report as questionable, raising some eyebrows, but the expectation was that he’d suit up for this high-profile contest.
Statistically, the matchup promised fireworks. The Timberwolves entered as 4.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at a lofty 238.5 points—a nod to both teams’ offensive firepower. Minnesota was averaging 119.6 points per game, fifth-best in the NBA, while Miami was even more prolific at 120.8 points per contest, ranking third. Yet, both teams also had defensive credentials: the Wolves allowed 114.6 points per game (11th in the league), while the Heat surrendered 117.3 (18th). It was a classic case of strength versus strength, and something had to give.
Looking back at the January 3 clash, the Timberwolves’ victory came despite shooting just 29 percent from beyond the arc (11-of-38). Miami, in contrast, hit 38 percent (14-of-37) from deep. But Minnesota made up for it with ruthless efficiency inside, converting 74.4 percent of their two-point attempts (35-of-47) compared to Miami’s 54 percent (27-of-50). Turnovers were another key: Minnesota’s defense forced 19 Heat miscues, with Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, and Nikola Jovic combining for 11 of those giveaways. That kind of opportunistic defense has become a calling card for the Wolves this season.
Rudy Gobert’s presence in the paint has been pivotal. Averaging a double-double on the year, Gobert posted 13 points and 12 rebounds in Miami, and his ability to dominate the glass was expected to be a major factor once again. “Rudy’s been a force for us,” Finch noted. “He anchors our defense and gives us second-chance opportunities.” Kel’el Ware, meanwhile, was drawing attention as a best bet to notch at least one assist—he’d recorded an assist in two straight games, including the recent matchup with Miami, and was over this mark in more than half his starts.
Miami’s backcourt featured the gritty Davion Mitchell, who put up 14 points and six assists in the last meeting. Mitchell’s rebounding had also been a bright spot, cashing the Over 2.5 rebounds prop in three of his last four games. Norman Powell led the Heat with 21 points in that contest, while Bam Adebayo and Ware combined for 20 points and 17 boards. For the Timberwolves, Julius Randle contributed a solid 23 points and 10 rebounds, shooting above 44 percent against the Heat for the first time since 2023. Randle, however, had been held under 23.5 points in five consecutive outings—a trend worth monitoring.
As for the betting landscape, Minnesota had been favored by 4.5 points or more 27 times this season, with an 11-16 record against the spread in those games. Miami, as underdogs of 4.5 points or greater, were 6-4-1 ATS. Both teams had been involved in high-scoring affairs: Timberwolves games had gone over 238.5 points nine times out of 36, while the Heat had hit that over in 18 of 36 contests. The predicted score from several analysts? Timberwolves 120, Heat 116—a nail-biter in the making.
The Timberwolves’ recent form was solid, with a 6-4 record in their last 10 games (5-5 ATS), while the Heat were 6-4 as well, but 7-3 against the spread. Minnesota’s home-court advantage had been pronounced, with an 11-4 record as moneyline favorites at Target Center. The Heat, meanwhile, had fared better as road underdogs than favorites at home, a trend that added another layer of intrigue to this matchup.
With both teams boasting dynamic scorers, deep benches, and playoff ambitions, this clash in Minneapolis was set to be a litmus test for where each squad stands as the season heats up. Would Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves keep their foot on the gas, or could the Heat’s resilience and savvy road play spark another upset? NBA fans had every reason to tune in, as the action on the court was sure to match the high stakes off it.
As the teams tipped off under the bright lights, one thing was certain: the Western Conference race just got a little more interesting, and the Timberwolves are right in the thick of it.
