It’s shaping up to be another pivotal year in U.S.-China relations, but don’t expect the long-anticipated face-to-face between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to happen anytime soon. Despite Trump’s recent hints of an imminent summit, U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue made it clear on Tuesday that a meeting is now more likely in 2026, not this fall as previously suggested. Perdue, speaking alongside a bipartisan congressional delegation in Beijing—the first such visit since 2019—acknowledged that while both leaders are "looking forward" to meeting, the timeline has shifted, and the road ahead is anything but straightforward, according to CNBC.
That uncertainty comes as the fate of TikTok, the wildly popular social media app, continues to overshadow broader trade talks between the world’s two largest economies. The delegation, led by Representative Adam Smith, met with Premier Li Qiang and Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss the recent Trump–Xi call and the ever-contentious issue of TikTok’s ownership. Smith didn’t sugarcoat the situation, telling reporters that communication between the two sides remains fraught: "We’re still talking past each other," he said, as reported by CNBC.
Just last week, Trump sounded an optimistic note after trade talks in Madrid, suggesting progress on a potential TikTok deal as a U.S. ban loomed. "Trade talks in Madrid went very well," Trump said, hinting that an agreement was within reach. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later confirmed that negotiators had reached a "framework" agreement to pivot TikTok toward U.S. ownership—a move that, if finalized, could reshape the tech landscape and calm some of the tensions roiling Washington and Beijing.
But as with so much in U.S.-China relations, the devil is in the details. According to Bloomberg’s Big Take Asia podcast, the proposed TikTok deal is more than just a business transaction; it’s a test of diplomatic muscle and influence. Analysts on the podcast dissected who gained the upper hand at the negotiating table, with both sides eager to claim victory but reluctant to show their cards too soon.
For many in business circles, hopes for a sweeping U.S.-China trade agreement have faded. As CNBC’s The China Connection newsletter noted this week, TikTok’s uncertain future has dominated the latest round of trade talks, leaving little room for progress on other thorny issues like tariffs, fentanyl, and semiconductors. Even the basic question of what TikTok’s divestiture from its Beijing-based parent ByteDance should look like remains unsettled. China has floated the idea of a tech licensing deal that would keep TikTok operational in the U.S. while complying with Chinese laws—a far cry from the detailed proposals coming from the American side, which include everything from investors to board seats.
Winston Ma, an adjunct professor at NYU School of Law, told CNBC that Beijing’s silence on future meetings—despite Trump’s public statements about an agreed summit at the upcoming APEC meeting in South Korea—suggests a deliberate negotiating strategy. "China said nothing about [an] APEC meeting," Ma pointed out. "That suggests that China is taking time to negotiate when the U.S. is keen to have deals." In other words, while Washington is eager for quick wins, Beijing is playing the long game.
The gap in expectations was further underscored by a Politico report, which cited a senior White House official claiming the Trump administration is "100% confident" it will force ByteDance to spin off TikTok’s U.S. operations. Yet, as Gary Dvorchak, managing director at Blueshirt Group, told CNBC, "Honestly, I really don’t see why the Chinese side would have any interest at all in divesting the ... U.S. TikTok. What’s their gain from it? They’re losing control of one of the crown jewels of China’s technology." Dvorchak likened the situation to the U.S. being asked to sell off parts of Google or Facebook, arguing that "the U.S. would disagree if China wanted America to sell part of Google or Facebook. So why would they do something that we would never do?"
Behind the scenes, China has been projecting confidence and technical prowess. As the Madrid talks wrapped up, China’s antitrust regulator announced that Nvidia had violated monopoly rules, a move that raised eyebrows given the timing. The action came on the heels of a military parade on September 3, where Beijing showcased new weapons in a bid to assert its status as a tech superpower. The parade, along with China’s national cybersecurity week from September 15 to 21, was widely seen as part of a broader effort to highlight the country’s commitment to national security and technological self-sufficiency.
Amid all this, Beijing has maintained a calculated coolness. After Trump’s Truth Social post last Friday, in which he said he "appreciate[s] the TikTok approval" following his call with Xi, the Chinese government responded with a vague statement, offering little in the way of concrete details. According to CNBC, Beijing’s readout made no mention of meeting plans, even as U.S. officials continued to share specifics about the proposed TikTok arrangement.
Despite the standoff, China hosted the bipartisan U.S. House delegation in mid-September—the first such visit in six years. Representative Adam Smith told reporters that while TikTok was discussed with Chinese leaders, "we did not get into technical details." This lack of specificity has led some analysts to predict that, while there may be "positive noises" about TikTok, the deal could still collapse at the eleventh hour.
The TikTok saga has become emblematic of the broader challenges facing U.S.-China relations. As Duncan Clark, chairman of BDA China, told CNBC, "The U.S. cannot afford to overplay its hand as China currently has the advantage." That sentiment was echoed in the financial markets, where investor confidence in ByteDance’s valuation soared to $400 billion after news of the framework agreement broke. Meanwhile, mainland China and Hong Kong stocks bucked regional declines, with the Hang Seng Index and CSI 300 both posting gains.
On the tech front, Apple’s iPhone 17 has seen a surge in demand in Beijing, though the highly anticipated iPhone Air remains unavailable due to its eSIM design. At the same time, new U.S. H-1B visa rules have created uncertainty for Chinese nationals, who accounted for nearly 12% of approved visa holders last year. China has responded with its own K-Visa policy, signaling a willingness to compete for global talent.
Retail sentiment has also mirrored the geopolitical drama. On Stocktwits, investors have been bullish on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI), with SPY up 14.8% and MCHI up a striking 38.9% so far this year. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) has gained 18.2%, though sentiment there remains more muted.
All told, the coming months promise more posturing, more negotiation, and—if history is any guide—more surprises. Whether the Trump-Xi summit materializes in 2026 or the TikTok deal finally gets inked, the stakes for both countries, and for the world, couldn’t be higher.