The by-election in Gorton and Denton, held on February 26, 2026, has emerged as one of the most closely watched and unpredictable political contests in recent British history. Traditionally a Labour stronghold, the southeast Manchester constituency was thrust into the spotlight after the resignation of long-serving Labour MP Andrew Gwynne, who had secured the seat with a commanding 13,400-vote majority. Yet, as the dust settled on polling day, it became clear that Labour’s grip on the area was far from secure, with the party facing an unprecedented three-way challenge from Reform UK and the Green Party.
For decades, Gorton and Denton—newly formed from portions of three previous constituencies—represented the heartland of Labour support. But the political landscape has shifted dramatically, reflecting broader national trends. Polls leading up to the by-election showed a razor-thin margin separating the three main contenders: Labour’s Angeliki Stogia, a city councillor selected after Prime Minister Keir Starmer controversially blocked Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing; Reform UK’s Matthew Goodwin, a GB News presenter and academic-turned-pundit; and Hannah Spencer, a local councillor and plumber representing the Green Party.
Forecasting site Britain Predicts captured the intensity of the race, reporting the Greens at 31%, Reform at 30%, and Labour at 29%. According to their analysis, only a few hundred votes were expected to separate first from third, making turnout and tactical voting critical. In an era of multi-party politics, such tight margins have become the norm, with by-elections increasingly decided by which party can best marshal its supporters and convince others to vote strategically.
As reported by The Week, this contest was not just about the candidates, but about the system itself. The first-past-the-post voting mechanism, designed for a simpler two-party era, now routinely produces winners with less than a third of the vote in multi-party races. Ian Simpson of the Electoral Reform Society observed that, in these circumstances, more than two-thirds of ballots cast are “simply ignored.” The debate, he argued, becomes less about policy and more about “which party is best placed to stop another party from winning.”
The campaign reflected these dynamics. Both Labour and the Green Party positioned themselves as the only effective bulwark against Reform UK, urging voters to back them to prevent a rightward shift. But, as John Rentoul of The Independent pointed out, such claims were “unsubstantiated,” since much of the voting—especially by post—had already taken place before any clear tactical consensus could emerge. The result, he suggested, would hinge on whether voters perceived the Greens or Labour as the likeliest to defeat Reform, and whether smaller parties would be squeezed out by the pressure to back a frontrunner.
The constituency itself is a microcosm of the challenges facing British politics. As The Economist noted, Gorton and Denton comprises wards with stark socio-demographic contrasts: predominantly white, working-class neighborhoods that have drifted toward Reform, and areas with large student and Muslim populations, many of whom feel disillusioned by Labour’s centrist repositioning and the party’s perceived reluctance to criticize Israel’s actions in Gaza. This disaffection provided fertile ground for the Greens, who, under the energetic leadership of Zack Polanski, have expanded their platform well beyond environmental issues to include support for the Palestinian cause and the legalization of drugs.
Hannah Spencer, the Green candidate, captured the mood among disenchanted progressives, declaring that a Green victory would “send shock waves through the political establishment.” On the other side, Starmer’s campaign sought to rally traditional Labour supporters, warning against Green drug policies and urging voters to reject what he called Reform’s “hate and division.”
But the by-election’s significance stretched far beyond local concerns. As reported by the Associated Press, Prime Minister Starmer’s leadership has come under increasing strain since Labour’s landslide general election victory in July 2024. His government has struggled to deliver on promises of economic growth and improved public services, while a series of policy U-turns and unpopular welfare cuts have eroded public confidence. The situation was further complicated by the so-called Jeffrey Epstein files, which implicated former UK ambassador Peter Mandelson in passing sensitive information to Epstein and led to Mandelson’s arrest and subsequent release on bail. Although Mandelson faced no allegations of sexual misconduct, the scandal reignited Labour lawmakers’ anger at Starmer’s judgment and led to high-profile resignations within his team.
Starmer’s decision to block Andy Burnham—a popular figure in Greater Manchester and a potential leadership rival—from standing as Labour’s candidate in Gorton and Denton only fueled speculation about internal party divisions. According to Rob Ford, a political science professor at the University of Manchester, even a narrow Labour victory would merely “buy him a reprieve,” with further peril looming in the upcoming May 7 elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and local councils in England, where Labour is expected to struggle.
Meanwhile, Reform UK, led nationally by veteran hard-right politician Nigel Farage, has been riding high in national opinion polls, outpacing both Labour and the Conservatives for months. Despite holding just eight seats in the House of Commons compared to Labour’s 404, Reform’s rise has sent shockwaves through the political establishment, challenging assumptions about the durability of Britain’s traditional two-party system.
For the Greens, the by-election offered a platform to demonstrate their transformation from a single-issue party into a broader “eco-populist” movement capable of attracting disillusioned voters across the spectrum. As The Guardian’s Jessica Elgot observed, a Green victory would be “the most catastrophic result for Starmer’s leadership,” signaling that the party is “a serious progressive force, not a protest vote.”
The outcome, due to be announced at 4 a.m. on February 27, 2026, is expected to have far-reaching implications. A Labour win would “embolden Starmer and prompt a thousand think-pieces about a corner turned,” as Rentoul put it. Victory for Reform’s Matt Goodwin would be “the biggest sign yet” that Reform’s poll lead “represents real voter intentions” and not just “dissatisfaction with the government.” A Green win could reshape the left-of-center political landscape and intensify calls for electoral reform.
Whatever the result, the Gorton and Denton by-election has already forced a reckoning with the realities of a fragmented electorate and the limitations of the current voting system. With only a few hundred votes likely to separate the top three parties, every side will be tempted to overinterpret the outcome. But as commentators have warned, the real lesson may lie not in who wins, but in how the contest was fought—and what it reveals about the shifting tides of British politics.