Thailand is once again at the center of a political whirlwind, with the nation’s future hanging in the balance as rival parties vie for control and constitutional questions swirl. In the latest chapter of this ongoing saga, the country’s House of Representatives is set to vote on September 5, 2025, to select a new prime minister, just a week after the Constitutional Court ousted Paetongtarn Shinawatra from the top job for breaching ethics laws. The dramatic removal stemmed from a controversial phone call with Cambodia’s Senate President Hun Sen, which was linked to a deadly five-day border conflict in July.
What’s unfolding in Bangkok is more than just a routine change of leadership. According to AP and The Nation, the turmoil has left Thailand under a caretaker government since last week, with the ruling Pheu Thai party scrambling to maintain its grip on power. But that grip has grown increasingly tenuous. The Bhumjaithai party, once a coalition partner, withdrew its support in June after the damaging leak of Paetongtarn’s call with Hun Sen, leaving Pheu Thai’s coalition with a razor-thin and unstable majority.
In a bold move on September 3, the main opposition People’s Party—successor to the dissolved Move Forward Party—announced it would back Anutin Charnvirakul, the leader of the conservative Bhumjaithai party, as the next prime minister. This surprise alliance, reported by Reuters and Bangkok Post, is conditional: Anutin’s government must dissolve Parliament within four months and call a general election. The deal also requires holding a referendum on constitutional amendments, paving the way for a new charter to be drafted by an elected constituent assembly.
People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut explained the rationale, stating, “We do not trust any prime minister to run the country. We need a prime minister who will move forward with dissolving Parliament and drafting a new constitution. This is the People’s Party’s decision, focused on the country’s future rather than popularity and personal risk.” (The Nation)
This agreement is no small feat. Anutin claims to have secured 146 votes from his party and allies, while the 143 People’s Party lawmakers will also support him. That’s well above the 247 majority needed out of the 492 House members currently serving, according to AP. With these numbers, Anutin seems poised to become Thailand’s 32nd prime minister—unless last-minute legal twists intervene.
The Pheu Thai party, however, is not going quietly. Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai warned of economic repercussions from a prolonged political crisis and attempted to block Anutin’s ascension by petitioning King Maha Vajiralongkorn to dissolve Parliament and call a snap election. “With all of these problems, our lawmakers think we should return power to the people and let the people decide,” Phumtham said (Bangkok Post). But the king’s Privy Council reportedly rejected the caretaker government’s request, citing legal faults in the draft royal decree for dissolution.
This back-and-forth has put Thailand in what some analysts are calling “constitutional crisis territory.” As Thai political observer Ken Lohatepanont put it, “We’re in constitutional crisis territory here, because we truly do not know what will happen next – no acting government has ever tried to dissolve parliament.” (The Diplomat) The legal uncertainty is palpable: Can an acting prime minister dissolve Parliament? If a new prime minister is selected, can they rescind such a request? The answers remain elusive, and the stakes could hardly be higher.
Underlying this immediate drama is a deeper struggle over Thailand’s political future. The People’s Party, previously known as the Move Forward Party, won the most seats in the 2023 general election but was blocked from power by the military-appointed Senate, which opposed its platform of monarchy reforms. The Senate, a legacy of the military government, no longer participates in prime ministerial votes, but its influence lingers. After Move Forward was sidelined, Pheu Thai formed a coalition government with more conservative and military-aligned parties, a decision many in the progressive camp saw as a betrayal.
Both Pheu Thai’s recent prime ministers—real estate executive Srettha Thavisin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra—lasted only about a year before being dismissed by the Constitutional Court for ethical violations. The revolving door at the top has left Thailand’s government looking fragile and, some would say, rudderless.
Anutin Charnvirakul, the man now at the center of the storm, is no stranger to the limelight. Known for championing the decriminalization of cannabis—a policy now facing tighter regulation for medical purposes—he also served as health minister during the COVID-19 pandemic, though he faced criticism for delays in securing vaccine supplies. His political journey has seen him serve in both Pheu Thai-led and military-backed governments, giving him a reputation as a shrewd, if sometimes controversial, operator.
The deal between Bhumjaithai and the People’s Party is built on five key points. Besides the four-month timeline for dissolving Parliament and the promise of a constitutional referendum, Bhumjaithai has agreed not to form a majority government, meaning it cannot pass legislation without opposition support. If the Constitutional Court rules that a referendum is required before drafting a new constitution, Bhumjaithai will organize one before the next election. Otherwise, the parties will move directly to amending the constitution and setting up an elected assembly.
Why did the progressive People’s Party choose to back a right-wing party like Bhumjaithai? Observers suggest it was a strategic move, perhaps even an act of political revenge after Pheu Thai’s perceived betrayal in 2023. By supporting Anutin under strict conditions, the People’s Party aims to force early elections and open the door for a new, more democratic constitution—goals that have eluded Thailand’s reformists for years.
Yet, the outcome remains uncertain. If King Vajiralongkorn does not approve Parliament’s dissolution by September 4, the scheduled vote for prime minister will likely proceed, making Anutin’s appointment all but certain. But given the legal ambiguities and the high-stakes maneuvering, nothing is set in stone.
For now, Thailand waits. The next few days could determine not only who leads the country, but also whether its political system can finally break free from the cycle of crisis and instability that has haunted it for decades. The world will be watching as events unfold in Bangkok, where the echoes of history are never far from the present.