The Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl is back in the spotlight, bringing together two Texas programs with plenty to prove: the Texas State Bobcats and the Rice Owls. Scheduled for January 2, 2026, at 1:00 pm ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, this matchup is more than just another bowl game—it's a collision of contrasting styles, recent history, and a chance for both teams to close their seasons on a high note. With ESPN broadcasting the action, fans across the country are tuning in to see if Texas State can continue its bowl dominance or if Rice can snap a decade-long drought.
Texas State enters the Armed Forces Bowl with a 6-6 record, their third consecutive bowl appearance under head coach GJ Kinne. The Bobcats have been on a rollercoaster this season. They started strong, racing to a 3-1 record with impressive wins over Eastern Michigan and UTSA, only to stumble through a five-game losing streak that threatened their postseason hopes. But just when it seemed the wheels might come off, Texas State regrouped, finishing the regular season with three decisive wins against Southern Miss, ULM, and South Alabama—each by 17 points or more—to clinch bowl eligibility.
Head coach GJ Kinne, who has yet to lose a bowl game as a head coach, is aiming to keep his perfect postseason record intact. According to the College Football News, "This is the third bowl game in a row for the Bobcats, the third under head coach GJ Kinne, and it's the third ever bowl game for the Texas State program as it heads off to the Pac-12 after this." Kinne's leadership has been instrumental, and his offense is among the most dynamic in college football.
Quarterback Brad Jackson has been the engine behind the Bobcats' high-octane attack. Jackson has thrown for 3,050 yards and 18 touchdowns, while also rushing for 692 yards and adding 16 more scores on the ground. His dual-threat ability has made Texas State one of the most prolific offenses in the nation—ranking sixth in total offense with 475.8 yards per game and twelfth in scoring with 36.1 points per contest. Running back Lincoln Pare has chipped in with 1,022 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, and receiver Beau Sparks has hauled in 80 catches for 1,113 yards and nine touchdowns. Chris Dawn Jr. has also made his mark with 54 receptions for 931 yards and two scores.
On the other side, the Rice Owls arrive in Fort Worth with a 5-7 record, their bowl hopes kept alive thanks to a shortage of eligible teams nationwide. While their season has been a mixed bag, Rice started out 3-1, notching wins over Louisiana, Prairie View A&M, and Charlotte before enduring a tough stretch against Navy, FAU, and UTSA. The Owls managed to pick up wins against UConn and UAB but ended the regular season with losses to North Texas and South Florida.
Rice's offense is built on a bruising ground attack, and they're not shy about their game plan. The Owls have rushed for 2,407 yards this season—an average of 218.8 per game, their best mark since 2013. Five different players have topped 200 rushing yards, with Quinton Jackson leading the way at 808 yards. The team relies on controlling the clock and grinding out possessions, aiming to keep the ball for 35 minutes and rack up close to 200 rushing yards per game. When they hit that mark, they've been competitive; when they don't, things get dicey. As College Football News puts it, "The formula is basic. Run, keep running, and keep the clock moving. Don't be stunned when they hand the ball off 50 times and keep the ball for about 35 minutes."
First-year head coach Scott Abell is hoping to become the first Rice coach to win a bowl game in his inaugural season. According to the Rice Football Fact Book, "Scott Abell is the second first-year coach to take Rice to a bowl game (Todd Graham, 2006) and looking to be the first to win a bowl championship in his inaugural season." Linebacker Andrew Awe leads the defense with 101 tackles, the most by an Owl since 2019, while the team has been stingy with turnovers, losing just seven all season—a mark that ranks fourth nationally.
The series history between these two programs is short but intriguing. This is the sixth meeting, with Texas State holding a 3-2 edge. They met as recently as the 2023 First Responder Bowl, where Texas State cruised to a 45-21 win. The Owls have a storied bowl history, but it's been a while since they tasted postseason glory—their last bowl win came in 2014.
When it comes to defense, both squads have their struggles. Rice ranks 95th in total defense, allowing 401.1 yards per game, and 118th in scoring defense at 32.25 points per game. Texas State isn't exactly a brick wall either, but their offense often compensates for any defensive lapses. That sets up a classic strength-on-strength battle: Rice's run-heavy approach against Texas State's explosive, up-tempo attack.
Oddsmakers are firmly behind the Bobcats. The consensus line has Texas State favored by anywhere from 13.5 to 16.5 points, with the over/under hovering around 57.5 to 58.5 points. The moneyline sits at -500 for Texas State and +380 for Rice. Most predictions see the Bobcats scoring in the mid-30s and Rice struggling to keep pace. As Sportsbook Wire noted, "Texas State hangs up over 36 points per game, and even if they are limited somewhat, Rice may not have the juice to answer." Their official prediction? "Texas State 35, Rice 16."
But don't count out the Owls just yet. Their ability to limit turnovers and control the clock could keep things interesting, especially if they can get their ground game rolling early. Rice has a knack for hanging around in games when they establish the run and avoid falling behind. Still, with Texas State's offensive firepower and the leadership of Brad Jackson, the Bobcats have every reason to feel confident.
Fans can catch the action live on ESPN, with streaming available on the ESPN app and audio on RiceOwls.com, the Rice Game Day App, and the Varsity Network. The game will also feature live stats via Statbroadcast. In the stands and at home, everyone will be watching to see if the Bobcats can cap their Sun Belt era with a third straight bowl win—or if the Owls can make history for their new head coach.
As kickoff approaches, anticipation is building in Fort Worth. Both teams have plenty at stake, and while Texas State enters as the favorite, Rice is eager to play spoiler. One thing's for sure: the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl promises plenty of action, and perhaps a few surprises before the final whistle blows.
