On a humid December morning in Miami, Senator Ruben Gallego could be spotted weaving through a crowd of churchgoers, greeting them in Spanish and handing out flyers in support of a Democratic candidate for mayor. His presence, casual and approachable, symbolized a broader shift underway in American politics: the battle for Latino voters is heating up, and the outcome could reshape the political landscape in Texas, Florida, and beyond.
Once, Republicans in Texas seemed poised for a major victory. Their redistricting strategy, crafted after President Donald Trump’s 2024 win, was designed to secure five Democratic-leaning congressional districts by leveraging Trump’s strong performance among Latino voters. As CNN reported, the GOP’s confidence stemmed from Trump’s double-digit margins in each of these districts—he had won them all by more than ten points. But the tide has turned, and both parties are scrambling to adjust their expectations.
Recent special elections in 2025 have upended earlier assumptions. Democrats outperformed Trump’s 2024 results in five U.S. House districts by at least 13 points, according to CNN. This swing is significant enough that three of the five newly drawn Texas districts could flip to the Democrats in the next cycle. While it’s not certain these strong showings will repeat everywhere, the momentum is undeniable. Special elections often have lower turnout, but the December contest in Tennessee’s 7th district drew numbers close to 2022 levels—Democrat Aftin Ben lost by just nine points, narrowing Trump’s previous margin by 13.
“I feel this on the ground,” remarked Representative Vicente Gonzalez, a Democrat from South Texas whose district is more than three-quarters Latino. “I truly expect that in the next cycle we will win back the majority and regain control in South Texas and in places that were traditionally Democratic but turned against us in the last few cycles with a huge number of disillusioned people.” Gonzalez’s optimism isn’t unfounded. The 28th district, represented by Henry Cuellar, is more than 90% Latino. Four of the five districts likely to flip are majority Latino, underscoring the community’s pivotal role.
The shifting allegiances among Latino voters are rooted in complex realities. Trump’s support among Latinos in Texas dropped sharply—from 44% in February 2025 to 32% by October, according to the UT–Texas Politics Project. The UH-TSU Texas Trends 2025 survey revealed that Latinos in Texas now express more uncertainty about their vote than the state’s population as a whole. When asked how they would vote if the 2024 presidential election were held again, Texas Latinos favored Democrat Kamala Harris by 11 points—a dramatic 19-point swing from the eight-point edge they gave Trump in 2024.
Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist, sees the shift as a return to pre-Trump norms. “I think they all will come back,” Rocha told CNN. “The question is, will they return to the norms that existed before Trump?” The underlying issues driving this change are familiar: affordability, labor shortages, and the increased visibility of immigration authorities. “Availability is really the main and central issue right now. I believe that is the core concern and the primary component of this,” pollster Patrick Ruffini told CNN. Gonzalez echoed this sentiment, explaining, “I don’t think Democrats, and especially Latinos who voted for Trump, ever expected this to happen. And now it’s happened, and it complicates many other issues we talk about, economic problems and inflation, and Americans continue to face difficulties.”
The Democratic Party is not leaving this opportunity to chance. Senator Ruben Gallego, himself a child of immigrants raised in poverty in Chicago’s Little Village, has become a key surrogate for Democrats seeking to win back Latino support. As the Associated Press reported, Gallego’s 2025 campaign stops have taken him to New Jersey, Virginia, and Florida, where he lent his support to Democratic candidates who ultimately won their races. He’s not just rallying the base—he’s laying the groundwork for a possible 2028 presidential run, even if he’s not as well-known as other Democratic hopefuls.
Maria Cardona, a Democratic National Committee member, called Gallego “our not-so-secret, secret weapon.” His authenticity and lived experience resonate with voters. Jesse Lehrich, a Democratic strategist, pointed out, “All of the Democrats are now talking about affordability, affordability, affordability. But how many of those actually know what it feels like to not know where the next rent check is going to come from? Or not know how they're going to pay for groceries this week?” Gallego’s background—working multiple jobs in high school, serving in Iraq with the Marines, and now serving in the Senate—gives him credibility few can match.
Gallego’s campaign style is unpolished but effective. He’s hosted boxing watch parties and organized rodeos and low rider car shows, dismissing concerns that such events might seem condescending. “He kind of feels perfect for the moment,” Lehrich observed. Gallego himself credits Trump for some border security measures and for his blunt, populist messaging—“no tax on tips” being a prime example. “We need to be identified as someone who’s pro-working class,” Gallego said in Miami, according to the AP.
Miami’s recent mayoral election illustrates the shifting winds. Eileen Higgins became the city’s first Democratic mayor in nearly 30 years, a result that would have been unthinkable just a few cycles ago. In Florida’s Interstate 4 corridor and Pennsylvania’s Puerto Rican communities, Trump made notable gains in 2024 by focusing on the economy and border security. Yet, the Democratic resurgence in 2025 signals that these gains may be fleeting.
Republicans, for their part, aren’t conceding the Latino vote. Eduardo Leal, press secretary for Texas Governor Greg Abbott, told CNN, “We compete for every vote, because elections aren’t won on past results but on a clear vision and proven experience that delivers for all Texans. We’re confident that message continues to resonate with Latino voters statewide.” Pollster Patrick Ruffini argued that Latinos remain the “most important voters to engage, because they are the least stable.” Without them, he warned, Democrats will struggle to achieve long-term success in presidential elections.
In Texas’s 15th congressional district, currently held by Republican Monica De La Cruz, the outcome is far from certain. Trump won the district by 18 points in 2024, but Democrat Beto O’Rourke had carried it by 11 points in the 2018 Senate race. The boundaries have barely changed, making it a key battleground in the upcoming cycle.
Nationally, Democrats are buoyed by a December 2025 CNN poll showing registered voters favoring them over Republicans by about five points in their House districts—a seven-point improvement over 2024. With Democratic voter motivation on the rise, the party’s prospects look brighter than they have in years. Yet, as Ruffini cautioned, “Donald Trump doesn’t need to convince people that he understands their pain, but he must prove that Democrats are too weak to fix it.”
The coming months will test whether Democrats can sustain their momentum and whether Republicans can adapt to the changing electorate. For now, the battle for Latino voters is wide open, and its outcome could decide not just the fate of Texas, but the direction of American politics for years to come.
