When Congressman Troy Nehls announced on December 2, 2025, that he would not seek reelection in 2026, the news sent ripples through Southeast Texas politics and beyond. Nehls, who has represented Texas’ 22nd Congressional District since 2020, became the fifth member from the region to declare an end to their current term, and the sixth Texas Republican overall to step aside ahead of the next midterm elections. His decision, he said, was motivated by a desire to "focus on my family and return home after this Congress," according to statements reported by Fox 7 Austin. But his departure is only the tip of a much larger iceberg of change looming over the Texas congressional delegation and the national Republican Party.
Nehls’ announcement follows a trend that’s been building throughout 2025: a wave of retirements and seat changes among Texas Republicans in the House of Representatives. Three of the five recent Southeast Texas departures are full retirements, one incumbent is seeking a U.S. Senate seat, and another is running for a different House seat due to redistricting. As ABC13 Houston reported, these collective decisions mean that six of the region’s ten congressional districts will see new representatives after the 2026 midterms. That’s a staggering level of turnover for a state known for its political continuity—and it’s raising tough questions about the future of Texas’ influence in Washington.
The list of outgoing Texas Republicans reads like a who’s who of the state’s political establishment. Alongside Nehls, there’s Michael McCaul, a ten-term congressman from Austin’s District 10, who announced he would not seek reelection in 2027, expressing excitement for new challenges in national security and foreign policy. Morgan Luttrell, representing District 8 since 2023, cited the need to be closer to home after witnessing devastating floods in the Texas Hill Country. Wesley Hunt, who has served Houston’s District 38 since 2023, is forgoing another House run to launch a campaign for the U.S. Senate. Chip Roy, from Hays County’s District 21, is also leaving to pursue the Texas Attorney General’s office. And Jodey Arrington of District 19, who currently chairs the House Budget Committee, said in his retirement video that he believes Congress should be a "short-term period of stewardship rather than a long career."
For many observers, the timing of these exits is not coincidental. This rare mid-decade redistricting effort, which the GOP hopes will boost its House presence by five seats, has upended political calculations across Texas. The new maps, drawn in the summer of 2025, have not only altered the boundaries of long-standing districts but have also shifted the partisan makeup of some. Two historically Democratic seats—Districts 9 and 18—have been redrawn, with District 9 now featuring a Republican majority and District 18 left vacant. According to ABC13, Democrat Al Green, who has long represented District 9, will run in District 18 if the Supreme Court upholds the new lines.
But redistricting isn’t the only factor driving this exodus. Political science experts point to a broader sense of fatigue and frustration among incumbents. Mark Jones, a professor at Rice University, told ABC13 that Nehls likely could have won reelection, but the prospect of serving in the House minority—should Democrats retake control—might have made another term unappealing. "When you're in the majority in the U.S. House, you can have an impact and get things done," Jones explained. "When you're in the minority, you pretty much are a bystander and all you can do is sit and complain and occasionally block things."
Nancy Sims, a longtime observer of Houston-area politics and a lecturer at the University of Houston, added that the current political environment is taking a toll. “With a lot of the Republican incumbents, they're stepping away by choice. And some of that may be due to the political environment, the political violence, the disruption of people's personal lives,” she said to ABC13. These sentiments echo a national trend: Ben Siegel, deputy political director for ABC News, noted that a potential "blue wave" and the possibility of the House flipping to Democratic control loom large in the minds of sitting Republicans. "Even if the wave doesn't crest quite high enough to unseat some of these Republicans, it's gonna be... it's gonna be bumpy sailing for them, and that's maybe one of the reasons why they're all deciding not to run for the House again," Siegel observed.
Indeed, the numbers are striking. As of early December 2025, there are 24 GOP House members nationwide who have announced their retirements, according to the Houston Chronicle. In Texas alone, more than half of the Houston area’s seven GOP members—including Nehls, McCaul, Luttrell, and Hunt—will not be in office after the 2026 midterms. This represents not just a loss of personnel, but also a significant erosion of seniority and influence for Texas on Capitol Hill. “That’s not just a loss of personnel, but of seniority and influence on Capitol Hill,” noted the Chronicle, underscoring the broader implications for the state’s clout in federal policymaking.
For those watching the races to replace these departing members, the field is already taking shape. Nehls has endorsed his twin brother, Trever Nehls, who officially filed for the District 22 seat on December 1, 2025. Trever’s candidacy was quickly joined by Rebecca Clark, a precinct chair who told ABC13 she had planned to challenge Nehls in the primary regardless of his decision. “I just felt like the time was right for a fresh face,” Clark said. “Someone who's not looking for a persona. I don't want to be a persona. I never had political aspirations to run for office, but I saw the need.” On the Democratic side, Marquette Greene-Scott, who is running in the 22nd District, criticized Troy Nehls for refusing to hold town halls or meet with constituents, stating in a video, "This further proves that he was not in it for public service."
Yet, as Rice University’s Mark Jones pointed out, late entrants to the race face a steep uphill battle. “Anyone who starts, other than Nehls, is going to have very little name ID,” he explained to ABC13. “In fact, close to zero name ID and operating under the clout of they're not entirely sure what district they'll be competing in. That of the old map or that of the new map.”
Historically, surges in congressional retirements have often preceded difficult midterm cycles for the party in power. Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, told the Houston Chronicle, "It’s pretty usual for a midterm year when the president’s party might be expecting a difficult election." Kondik noted similar waves occurred in 2018, when Democrats retook the House majority, and in the midterm cycles before both George W. Bush and Barack Obama saw their parties lose control of Congress. While Kondik believes most Texas GOP seats are likely to remain in Republican hands, the loss of experienced lawmakers and committee chairs still weakens the state’s leverage in Washington.
As the 2026 midterms approach, Southeast Texas—and indeed much of the state—stands on the brink of a generational shift in representation. The reasons for this are as varied as the districts themselves: family priorities, a changing political landscape, the grind of public service, and the uncertainty of redistricting. But one thing is clear: the Texas delegation that returns to Congress in January 2027 will look very different from the one that serves today, with new faces, new priorities, and perhaps a new balance of power in the House.
