The Cotton Bowl in Dallas is once again the epicenter of college football excitement as the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners square off in the latest chapter of the Red River Rivalry. With both teams entering Saturday’s clash carrying dramatically different narratives than preseason pundits expected, anticipation for this Southeastern Conference showdown has reached a fever pitch. The stakes? Bragging rights, conference momentum, and perhaps the future direction of two of college football’s most storied programs.
Texas began the 2025 season with all the hype, ranked No. 1 and boasting a roster filled with blue-chip talent. Yet, after a surprising 29-21 loss at Florida last week, the Longhorns find themselves unranked at 3-2 (0-1 SEC) and searching for answers. On the other side, Oklahoma entered the season with more questions than answers, but the Sooners have answered the bell in impressive fashion, rolling to a 5-0 record (1-0 SEC) and a No. 6 national ranking. The reversal of fortunes has set the stage for a high-stakes battle in Dallas, where the winner could emerge as a legitimate SEC contender.
“I love all aspects of it,” Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian said, reflecting on the annual spectacle. “I love that it’s neutral site. I love that it’s a state fair. I love that both teams are in the same tunnel. I love that the crowd is split 50/50. ... I don’t love that there’s some noise around how we’re playing, but that’s the reality of the situation. That’s what we signed up to do.” Sarkisian and his staff are acutely aware of the pressure, especially after Texas has won two of the last three meetings—by a staggering combined margin of 83-3 around Oklahoma’s own 34-30 victory in 2023. Texas still leads the all-time series 64-51-5, but recent momentum has shifted.
Quarterback play remains a central storyline for both teams. For Texas, Arch Manning arrived in Austin with sky-high expectations, but his performance has been inconsistent, particularly after last week’s disappointing outing against Florida. The Longhorns’ offensive line, anchored by left tackle Trevor Goosby, will need to step up in a big way to protect Manning and give him the chance to shine. Goosby’s matchup with Oklahoma’s star defensive end R. Mason Thomas—who already has 5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, and a forced fumble this season—could be one of the defining battles in the trenches.
“OU’s pass rush has been incredibly dominant,” a Texas analyst noted. “R. Mason Thomas came into the season as one of the top pass rushers in the SEC, and he’s picked up right where he left off in 2024. Goosby has been fairly solid in 2025, but he’ll have to step up against Thomas if Arch Manning is going to have any chance to succeed this weekend.”
The Sooners, meanwhile, have their own quarterback uncertainty. John Mateer, who threw for 1,215 yards and six touchdowns (with three interceptions) and added 190 rushing yards and five scores before injuring his throwing hand against Auburn on September 20, is still recovering from a broken bone. He missed last week’s 44-0 rout of Kent State, and while he’s pushing to return, head coach Brent Venables indicated that Mateer had not returned to full practice reps as of Tuesday. That means freshman Michael Hawkins Jr., who started last week, is likely to get the nod again. “When they tell me he’s available, I’ll let y’all know,” Venables said, leaving the door open for a late change but preparing for Hawkins to lead the offense.
Both teams are dealing with key injuries that could impact Saturday’s outcome. Texas star cornerback Malik Muhammad missed the Florida game due to an undisclosed injury and remains questionable. For Oklahoma, wide receiver Keontez Lewis suffered a scary head injury last week and was carted off the field, though Venables said Lewis avoided serious injury. His availability remains uncertain.
Defenses are expected to play a pivotal role. Oklahoma boasts the nation’s top-ranked total defense, allowing just 193 yards per game, while Texas ranks 13th, surrendering 260.2 yards per contest. Sarkisian praised the Sooners’ defensive unit: “They’re very active up front, very athletic group. Multitude of pressures, multitude of coverage. I think they lead the SEC in about everything. ... So we’ve got our work cut out for us.”
For Texas to have a shot, defensive end Colin Simmons must find his pass-rushing form. Despite being a preseason all-world selection, Simmons has been underwhelming as a pass rusher this year, though he’s been stout against the run. Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski is expected to scheme Simmons into more advantageous situations to disrupt Oklahoma’s quarterbacks—whoever is under center. “If there’s a game for him to ‘break out’ in that aspect, it’s this one,” the Texas staff emphasized.
On offense, the Longhorns are looking for tight end Jack Endries to rediscover his early-season spark. After a hot start, Endries has managed just three receptions for six yards over his last three games. With Oklahoma’s aggressive defense likely to send blitzing linebackers, Endries could become a key safety valve for Manning, especially on stick variations and underneath routes designed to exploit vacated zones.
Analytics and betting markets are split on how this rivalry will play out. The SP+ prediction model, which measures college football efficiency, gives Oklahoma a 68% chance of victory with a projected score of 26-18, favoring the Sooners by 7.6 points. Meanwhile, bookmakers have Texas as a narrow 1.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 43.5 points. The College Football Power Index, simulating the matchup 20,000 times, gives Texas a 60.9% chance to win, projecting the Longhorns to be 2.7 points better than Oklahoma. That divergence underscores just how close—and unpredictable—this contest could be.
With so much uncertainty swirling around both quarterback situations, defensive stars poised to make a difference, and the backdrop of one of college football’s most passionate rivalries, Saturday’s Red River Rivalry promises drama from the opening whistle. Whether it’s the Sooners’ undefeated run or the Longhorns’ fight to regain their preseason form, all eyes will be on Dallas as these two teams battle for supremacy and pride.
As kickoff approaches, the only certainty is that the Red River Rivalry never fails to deliver heart-stopping moments and unforgettable storylines. Fans on both sides can expect another chapter worthy of the rivalry’s storied history as Texas and Oklahoma face off with everything on the line.
