Republicans managed to hold onto Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District in a high-stakes special election on December 3, 2025, but the victory came with a far slimmer margin than in years past, fueling debate and concern within both parties about what the result means for the 2026 midterms. Matt Van Epps, a military veteran and former state general services commissioner from Nashville, defeated Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn by just 9 percentage points, a sharp drop from the 21-point margin enjoyed by outgoing Republican Mark Green in 2024, according to the Associated Press.
This contest, which drew national attention and millions in outside spending, was seen as a bellwether for the political climate heading into next year’s congressional races. The district, redrawn by Republican lawmakers in 2022 to dilute Nashville’s liberal voting base, has long been considered reliably conservative—Trump carried it by 22 points in the last presidential election. Yet, as AP and other outlets reported, Democrats outperformed their 2024 presidential showing in this and other special elections by an average of 16 points, signaling a possible shift in voter sentiment.
The stakes were clear from the start. Van Epps, who won a crowded Republican primary in October with a late endorsement from former President Donald Trump, tied himself closely to the former president throughout the campaign. Trump’s involvement was anything but cursory: he endorsed Van Epps, participated in two tele-rallies, and congratulated him on social media after the win, declaring, “the Radical Left Democrats threw everything at him.” Van Epps echoed this loyalty at his victory party, telling supporters, “No matter what the D.C. insiders or liberal media say, this is President Trump’s party. I’m proud to be a part of it and can’t wait to get to work.”
Republican leaders pulled out all the stops in the campaign’s final stretch. House Speaker Mike Johnson and national Republican chair Joe Gruters visited the district on December 2 to rally support, and the Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc. spent nearly $1.7 million—its first campaign expenditure since the 2024 presidential race—largely on digital advertising, according to a memo cited by AP. The Republican National Committee also deployed staffers and coordinated with state officials to boost turnout.
Despite the full-court press, the result was closer than many Republicans would have liked. “This is one of the biggest flashing red light warning signs we’ve seen yet for Republicans,” strategist Matt Whitlock wrote on social media, warning that similar numbers nationwide could spell a “blue wave far worse than 2018.” U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz told Fox News, “We could have lost this district,” and urged his party to “set out the alarm bells” for the coming turnout battle.
Democrats, meanwhile, saw the outcome as evidence that their message is resonating, even in deep-red territory. Behn, who ran as an unapologetic progressive, focused her campaign on economic issues—especially inflation and affordability—criticizing Trump’s tariffs and spending policies as favoring the wealthy and corporations. At her campaign gathering after the results came in, Behn appeared energized, singing Dolly Parton’s “9 to 5” and telling supporters, “Tonight isn’t the end. It is the beginning of a next chapter of Tennessee and American politics—one of possibility, one of power and one of progress for the people that we love.” She noted, “Nobody in Washington believed we could get even this close.”
National Democratic leaders echoed her optimism. Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin declared that Republicans should be “shaking in their boots” ahead of the midterms, adding, “What happened tonight in Tennessee makes it clear: Democrats are on offense and Republicans are on the ropes.” The House Majority PAC poured $1 million into Behn’s campaign, and she received high-profile support from figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, former Vice President Kamala Harris, and Al Gore, who all participated in rallies and events on her behalf.
Yet, the race also exposed tensions within the Democratic Party about strategy and candidate selection. Some centrist voices, like Lanae Erickson of the think tank Third Way, argued that nominating far-left candidates in swing districts risks alienating moderate voters. “Each time we nominate a far-left candidate in a swing district who declares themselves to be radical and alienates the voters in the middle who deliver majorities, we set back that cause,” Erickson said in a statement cited by AP. Republicans capitalized on such rhetoric, running television ads highlighting Behn’s self-description as a “radical” and past comments criticizing Nashville and its tourist scene.
The district’s demographics and recent history added another layer of complexity. Only about 20% of voters in the 7th District reside in Nashville, the state’s Democratic stronghold. The rest of the district spans 14 counties, many of them deeply conservative. Republicans redrew the map three years ago to make it even harder for Democrats to compete. Still, Behn managed to run up the score in Davidson County, home to Nashville, while Van Epps dominated the rural areas.
Early voting wrapped up the day before Thanksgiving, and Election Day landed on the following Tuesday, an unusual schedule that may have affected turnout. Chip Saltsman, a former Tennessee Republican Party chair, observed, “In Tennessee, it’s been a long time since we thought about beating Democrats. It’s been a lot more important to beat Republicans in a primary. This time, we had to pay attention.”
For Van Epps, the win is both a personal triumph and a party imperative. Maintaining control of the House is crucial for Republicans—and for Trump, who remembers how Democrats used their majority to launch an impeachment inquiry during his first term. The former president has urged GOP-led states to redraw congressional maps to shore up their prospects, and the Tennessee result may intensify those efforts nationwide.
For Democrats, the near-win is a morale boost and a strategic data point as they look toward 2026. As Behn told her supporters, “Let’s keep going. We’re not done. Not now, not ever.”
With both parties taking stock, the Tennessee special election stands as a microcosm of the national mood: anxious, competitive, and unpredictable. As the 2026 midterms approach, the lessons from this race—about turnout, messaging, and the shifting allegiances of American voters—are sure to echo far beyond the Volunteer State.
