In a political twist few predicted a year ago, Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District—long considered a Republican fortress—became the epicenter of a heated and nationally watched special election on December 2, 2025. The contest, set in motion by the summer resignation of GOP Rep. Mark Green, pitted Republican Army veteran Matt Van Epps against Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn, drawing millions in campaign spending and the attention of party heavyweights from both sides.
Just last year, the district seemed unassailable for Republicans. Mark Green had won reelection by approximately 20 points, and Donald Trump carried the district by a similar margin in the 2024 presidential election, according to Inside Elections. But as the special election approached, the race tightened dramatically. An Emerson College/The Hill poll conducted November 22-24 showed Van Epps leading Behn by just two points—48% to 46%—well within the poll’s margin of error. Another 2% of respondents supported other candidates, and 5% remained undecided.
The narrowing gap was significant enough that the Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the district from “solid” Republican to “likely” Republican, while Inside Elections labeled it “Lean Republican.” The stakes were high, with the outcome poised to serve as a bellwether for the 2026 midterms, where Republicans’ already narrow House majority will be fiercely contested.
Both parties pulled out all the stops in the final days. Van Epps rallied in Franklin with U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson and Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters. Trump himself joined via speakerphone, calling Van Epps “fantastic” and urging supporters to mobilize. “He’s for everything that we represent,” Trump declared, while also suggesting that Behn was getting “a lot of publicity cause she’s got a little something weird and television is doing whatever it can.”
Van Epps, a first-time candidate and former member of Governor Bill Lee’s cabinet, leaned heavily on his military background and loyalty to Trump’s agenda. “We have the right solutions, the right plan to address affordability to drive down costs, to work on health care, childcare, housing and energy,” Van Epps told supporters. He warned that electing Behn would mean “a rubber stamp for Hakeem Jeffries and all the radicals in Congress.”
Behn, meanwhile, campaigned in Clarksville, joined virtually by former Vice President Al Gore and progressive House members Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pramila Jayapal. She countered Republican attacks by focusing on economic issues, which polling showed were top-of-mind for voters. “I was a private citizen,” Behn told CNN, addressing past comments about Nashville. “Nashville is my home. Do I roll my eyes at the bachelorette parties and the pedal taverns that are blocking my access to my house? Yeah, every Nashvillian does. But this race has always been about something bigger. It’s about families across middle Tennessee that are getting crushed by rising prices while Washington politicians and billionaires argue about this type of nonsense.”
Behn, a social worker and community organizer, is part of the Democratic Party’s progressive wing. She’s twice proposed legislation to eliminate Tennessee’s grocery tax and has made affordability the centerpiece of her campaign. “Trump and his billionaire friends are spending millions of dollars on a race they should have won handily,” Behn said, pointing to the influx of outside money and the higher-than-usual stakes for both parties.
The deluge of spending was remarkable. According to AdImpact, Republican advertisers poured over $3 million into the race, while Democrats spent $2.3 million. Two-thirds of the total spending came from outside groups, with MAGA Inc.—a super PAC supporting Trump—alone contributing $1.7 million. On the Democratic side, House Majority PAC invested $1 million, joined by Tennessee Rise PA, Planned Parenthood Votes, and Indivisible Action. Independent candidates like Jon Throp also appeared on the ballot, with some outside spending reportedly aimed at peeling votes from Van Epps.
Despite the district’s deep-red pedigree—Republicans have held the seat since 1982—recent Democratic victories in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City emboldened Behn’s campaign and gave national Democrats hope that even a close loss would signal trouble for the GOP. “Win or lose, Republicans have been forced to spend millions, deploy resources, and pull out all of the stops to try to save a seat in a district that Trump won by 22 points,” said Abhi Rahman, a deputy communications director for the Democratic National Committee.
Polling underscored the shifting dynamics. The Emerson poll found Trump’s approval rating in the district at 47%, a notable dip from his previous dominance, and Gallup reported his national approval at a second-term low of 36%. Mark Jones, a political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute, told TNND, “At the end of the day, Democrats are probably going to come out winning one way or the other.” He argued that even a narrow loss for Behn would be a significant signal of voter disapproval toward Trump and his policies, especially in a district he once dominated.
Both candidates faced their share of scrutiny. Republicans attacked Behn as a “radical,” citing her opposition to certain tax cuts and previous remarks supporting the defunding of police—comments Behn said she made before holding office and would not repeat now. Van Epps, for his part, was criticized by Democrats for unwavering support of Trump’s policies, which they argued contributed to the affordability crisis through measures like tariff increases and cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act.
Fundraising reports showed Behn holding a slight edge, having raised $1.2 million through November 12, including $1 million since October 1, and ending the period with $522,000 on hand. Van Epps raised $993,000 with $231,000 available in the campaign’s final weeks. Behn’s campaign relied on small-dollar donations, while Van Epps benefited from large individual donors and political action committees.
As Election Day dawned, both campaigns ramped up their ground games. Democrats celebrated knocking on 13,000 doors for Behn, while Republicans emphasized the need to mobilize their base in a typically low-turnout special election. “This is a special election, typically low turnout. That means they’re vulnerable to being gamed and we could get a result that doesn’t reflect the district,” Sen. Bill Hagerty told the Tennessee Lookout.
For many, the race’s significance extended well beyond Tennessee. Former Vice President Al Gore, speaking at Behn’s rally, declared, “By electing Aftyn, you can say you turned our country back on the right path.” Meanwhile, supporters at Van Epps’s events voiced concern that recent Democratic gains elsewhere could be replicated in their backyard. “I am scared to death that what happened in New York will happen in my backyard,” one attendee told the Lookout.
Regardless of the outcome, political observers agreed the contest had already shifted the narrative. Democrats forced Republicans to fight for a seat they once considered theirs by default, while Republicans, though still favored, faced an unexpectedly tough battle. As Mark Jones put it, “If Behn either wins or comes close to winning, that would be another piece of evidence that Republicans are looking at a pretty difficult election in November of 2026.”
In a year marked by political surprises, Tennessee’s 7th District special election became a microcosm of the national mood—restless, unpredictable, and fiercely contested, with both parties reading the tea leaves for what comes next.
