As tax season draws to a close in 2026, millions of Americans are discovering surprises—some pleasant, some decidedly not—in their refund checks and IRS mail. While the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) reports that the average tax refund has climbed to $3,571 as of March 20, up from $3,221 at the same point last year, many filers are still left scratching their heads over smaller-than-expected refunds, sudden tax bills, and, in some alarming cases, the fallout from identity theft.
According to IRS data cited by USA TODAY, this year’s average refund marks an 11% increase, or about $350, compared to last year. That’s certainly better than a decrease, but it falls short of the nearly $1,000 bump that the Trump administration had forecasted in late January, touting new provisions like no tax on tips, overtime, and car loan interest as part of its sweeping tax bill. For context, the average federal income tax refund at the end of the 2025 filing season was $3,167, making this year’s uptick seem less dramatic than some had hoped.
By March 20, the IRS had already issued about 56.7 million refunds—roughly a million more than at the same time in 2025. However, just under 78 million taxpayers had filed their returns by late March, about a million fewer than the previous year. So, what’s behind the numbers, and why are some filers left disappointed or even blindsided by unexpected tax bills?
Tax experts point to several common culprits for lower refunds in 2026. H&R Block, a leading tax preparation company, highlights a few key pitfalls: gig workers not paying estimated taxes on all income streams, failing to complete multiple W-4 forms for multiple jobs or after a raise, and changes in eligibility for tax credits or deductions. For instance, if a child turned 17 before the end of the 2025 tax year, the dependent credit could drop from $2,200 to just $500—a difference that can sting come refund time. Outstanding debts, such as overdue child support or state tax bills, can also shrink refunds, sometimes unexpectedly.
Income level plays a big role, too. According to a February report by the Center for American Progress, more than 90% of Americans earning over $100,000 are likely to see increased refunds this year. In contrast, less than half of households making under $100,000 will see their refunds rise. The lion’s share of increased refunds is heading to those earning qualified overtime pay or paying hefty amounts in state and local taxes. As USA TODAY puts it, this trend is partly because higher earners are taxed at higher rates, and the new provisions favor those with more complex tax situations.
For many, the logistics of getting a refund haven’t changed much. Electronic filers in Wisconsin, for example, can expect their state tax refund within three weeks, while paper returns may take up to 12 weeks, according to the Wisconsin Department of Revenue. Federal refunds for electronic filers are also typically processed within three weeks, but paper returns can take considerably longer, the IRS notes. Taxpayers can check their refund status online via their state’s portal or the IRS’s “Where’s My Refund?” tool.
But it’s not just smaller refunds or delayed checks that are causing headaches this year. In a troubling development, identity theft scams are on the rise—especially those targeting gig economy platforms like DoorDash. In early April, a Neenah, Wisconsin accountant, Kurt Heling of Heling & Associates CPAs, told WBAY that he had recently assisted two clients who received IRS notices for DoorDash income they never earned. The scam, he explained, involves criminals using stolen Social Security numbers to sign up as DoorDash drivers, often with fake IDs. Victims, who have never worked for the delivery service, suddenly find themselves facing tax bills for income they didn’t make.
“We’re finding out is, people are using fake IDs when they’re signing up for DoorDash and it gets to be two or three years later and the person with the real ID is getting this IRS notice,” Heling told WBAY. The fraudulent income reported in these cases ranged from $24,000 to $30,000, resulting in tax bills—after interest and penalties—of $8,000 to $12,000. For the unsuspecting victims, it’s a nightmare scenario that can take months to resolve.
DoorDash, for its part, says it has implemented a multi-layered identity verification process and requires more than 100,000 “Dashers” to re-verify their identity each week. Still, as Heling points out, identity theft often traces back to old data breaches or hacks, with stolen information sometimes lying dormant for years before being used. “That’s a tough one to answer. And it’s hard, you know. It’s something that’s floating out there in the dark web. It could have been a hack from 10 years ago, and whoever took that information sat on it and now it pops up,” Heling explained.
So, what can taxpayers do to protect themselves? Experts recommend several steps: obtain an IRS Identity Protection PIN—a six-digit number that prevents anyone else from filing a tax return using your Social Security number. Freezing your credit, monitoring your accounts, and watching for unexpected 1099 forms or IRS letters about back taxes can also help catch fraud early. Parents are urged to lock down their children’s identities using the same precautions, as child identity theft is a growing concern. If you do fall victim, fill out IRS Form 14039 (the identity theft affidavit) and file it directly with the IRS, including a copy with any response to an IRS notice. Victims should also report the theft at IdentityTheft.gov, the federal government’s clearinghouse for identity theft recovery resources.
With Tax Day set for Wednesday, April 15, 2026, the clock is ticking for those who haven’t yet filed. Missing the federal deadline can be costly—the standard penalty is 5% of any tax due for each month the return is late, up to a maximum of 25%. In Wisconsin, the penalty structure is similar, with a $50 late-filing fee, 1.5% monthly delinquent interest, and a 5% monthly penalty, also capped at 25%. The good news? Any taxpayer can request an extension until October 15, provided they do so before the April 15 deadline, either by mail or through the IRS website.
As the 2026 tax season wraps up, Americans are navigating a landscape shaped by new tax laws, evolving gig economy realities, and the ever-present threat of identity theft. Staying vigilant, double-checking forms and credits, and locking down personal information are more important than ever. For those caught off guard by a surprise bill or fraudulent activity, resources exist—but swift action is key. Ultimately, while the average refund may be up, the real story this year is about the growing complexity—and risk—of filing taxes in a digital age.