Beef prices and the policies shaping them have been at the center of a storm in recent months, as U.S. consumers continue to fill their plates with red meat even while the cattle herd shrinks and the industry reels from dramatic shifts in trade and tariffs. The saga, which intensified through the fall of 2025, now involves not just the livelihoods of ranchers and the wallets of shoppers, but also major legal and political battles reaching all the way to the Supreme Court.
At the heart of the matter is President Donald Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs—especially those imposed under the rarely invoked 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). According to filings reviewed by The Associated Press, Costco Wholesale joined about 20 other companies in early December 2025 in a lawsuit seeking a full refund of tariffs paid this year under Trump’s IEEPA orders. The suit argues that the government overstepped its authority, since the law allows the president to take certain trade measures during emergencies but does not explicitly authorize import taxes.
Through October, U.S. importers had shelled out about $200 billion in tariffs ordered by Trump under IEEPA, covering goods from China, Canada, Mexico, and—following an April 2025 declaration—nearly 90 other countries. Costco executives have noted that about a third of the company’s sales come from imported goods, with roughly 8% sourced from China. The company’s filing did not specify how much it paid in IEEPA tariffs, but the sums industry-wide are staggering.
The Supreme Court, for its part, heard arguments in November on a related challenge to Trump’s tariff authority. The justices debated whether the president’s use of IEEPA to impose import taxes was legal or an unconstitutional breach of the separation of powers. While there’s no ruling yet, the question of whether companies like Costco could receive refunds for these tariffs was discussed during the hearing.
For the beef industry, the impact of these policies has been dramatic and immediate. As reported by The Fence Post, U.S. beef consumption has climbed even as the national cattle herd continues to shrink—a trend driven by low prices, drought, and market instability. The border with Mexico remains closed to cattle due to the advance of the new world screwworm, while Brazilian beef faced a hefty 50% tariff starting in August 2025. These measures, combined with other tariffs on steel, aluminum, and more, have created what many in the industry describe as a “perfect storm.”
President Trump has made lowering beef prices a signature goal. Over the past seven weeks, he announced the removal of reciprocal tariffs on South American food products, plans to quadruple the quota for Argentinian beef imports, and a reversal of the Brazilian beef tariffs. These rapid policy shifts triggered the largest and fastest downturn in feeder cattle futures in U.S. history, with prices plummeting roughly 20% from their record highs.
However, beef prices at the grocery store didn’t follow suit. Boxed beef prices rose steadily through October before leveling off, defying the president’s hopes and the normal rules of supply and demand. As CoBank noted in August, “beef appears to be among the few exceptions to that rule, having defied common expectations surrounding price elasticity… demand has not softened—it’s actually edged upward.” Bone-in ribeye, for example, now costs $12.96 per pound, up from $10.28 five years ago and $7.70 a decade past.
Amid this turmoil, cattle producers and ranchers have pushed back against the idea that beef is overpriced. Steve Stratford, owner of Stratford Angus and a cattle buyer in Kansas, argued in an August Facebook video, “The prices… are needed with the way the inputs have been. They were all going to be broke if we didn’t get to these levels.” He continued, “Beef is still a bargain, we are at the price levels we should have been for a long time for what you get nutritionally and in comparison to the other things they are buying.”
Comparing beef to other staples, Stratford pointed out that a pound of corn chips costs $6, a sugary breakfast cereal $5, and a specialty oat milk latte $6.37. “Beef, eggs and milk,” he said, “are the best deal for consumers when considering the nutritional component.”
Yet, for many in the cattle business, the recent collapse in cattle prices has been devastating. Cory Hart, a North Dakota rancher and president of the Bowden Meat Processing cooperative, observed that “beef has been at a pretty consistent price. It has risen some, but it’s still affordable.” He attributes rising costs to inflation and the lingering effects of the pandemic. Hart insists tariffs are essential to level the playing field against countries with much lower production costs, and he advocates for mandatory country-of-origin labeling to further support U.S. producers.
“No one is getting rich from these cattle prices. We need these prices just to survive and expand the cattle industry,” Hart told The Fence Post. He also emphasized that cattle producers don’t control beef prices—those are set by meatpackers, retailers, and restaurants. Hart believes that the president’s promise to lower beef prices was likely a response to fast food industry pressure, but warns that such moves could hurt producers far more than consumers.
Robert Star, a Nebraska rancher and co-owner of Birdwood Beef, echoed these concerns. He described the fallout from Trump’s public comments as “catastrophic,” noting that live cattle prices in his family’s feedlot dropped up to $12 per hundredweight since mid-October. Star is wary of the Brazilian tariff repeal, fearing it will be “a lot more detrimental than anything that could’ve come out of Argentina.” Still, he’s optimistic about the future, pointing to rising demand for high-quality, locally sourced beef.
Scott Varilek, a broker at Kooima Kooima Varilek Trading Inc., summed up the market’s mood: “We have a consumer that knows what a good product it is.” While he sees strong demand and tight supplies as a boon for producers, he also acknowledges that government interventions and market panic have driven prices down. “Trump has made it known he wants beef prices lower, and that has scared the market,” Varilek said. He believes the market will eventually stabilize, as it usually does.
Meanwhile, President Trump has not been shy about his intentions. On October 19, he told reporters, “The only price we have that’s high is beef, and we’ll get that down… one of the things we’re thinking about doing is beef from Argentina.” On November 7, he posted on Truth Social, “While Cattle Prices have dropped substantially, the price of Boxed Beef has gone up—Therefore, you know that something is ‘fishy.’ We will get to the bottom of it very quickly. If there is a criminality, those people responsible will pay a steep price!” He also directed the Department of Justice to investigate the meatpacking industry for possible collusion and price manipulation.
As for consumers, their appetite for beef remains undiminished, even as prices rise. The Make America Healthy Again movement, led by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr., has spotlighted beef’s nutritional benefits and kept it in the public eye. While the industry grapples with tight supplies, regulatory uncertainty, and legal battles over tariffs, one thing seems clear: beef’s place on the American table is secure, at least for now.
With the Supreme Court poised to rule on the legality of Trump’s tariffs and the industry still adapting to rapid policy changes, the coming months promise more twists in this uniquely American saga of cattle, commerce, and the dinner plate.
