On the eve of Tanzania’s Independence Day, the country stands at a crossroads, its streets tense and its citizens bracing for what could be another violent confrontation. The government’s crackdown ahead of planned protests on December 9, 2025, has drawn international scrutiny, ignited diplomatic disputes, and left many Tanzanians fearful for their safety and their future.
Prime Minister Dr. Mwigulu Nchemba, in a move that underscores the government’s anxiety, urged citizens to celebrate Independence Day from their homes unless absolutely necessary. His directive, issued on December 8, 2025, was clear: avoid public gatherings that could be construed as participation in unlawful demonstrations. The Minister for Home Affairs, George Simbachawene, echoed this sentiment, assuring the public that national security "remains stable and continues to improve" following the unrest that erupted on October 29, 2025.
That unrest, triggered by elections widely condemned as neither free nor fair, marked a turning point in Tanzania’s post-independence history. President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared the winner with 98 percent of the vote, after key opposition leaders were barred from running. According to Kenya Insights, opposition party Chadema documented between 1,000 and 2,000 deaths related to the election violence, while United Nations human rights experts reported at least 700 fatalities. The government, however, refused to release official casualty figures, arguing that doing so would be to "celebrate the deaths." Instead, security forces allegedly transported bodies to undisclosed locations, leaving families to search hospitals and police stations in vain.
Amid this turmoil, the government imposed a sweeping communications blackout, deployed military forces alongside police, and instituted a nationwide curfew. Transport, markets, the internet, and newspapers were shut down—an unprecedented move since the country’s independence. Gas stations and grocery stores closed, and the streets of Dar es Salaam and Dodoma emptied as Tanzanians hunkered down, fearing further violence as security forces reportedly fired live ammunition at demonstrators.
The international response has been swift and pointed. The United States, Tanzania’s largest bilateral donor, announced a comprehensive review of its relations with the East African nation. The US State Department cited repression of religious freedom, obstacles to American investment, and disturbing violence against civilians during the October 29 elections as grounds for reconsidering six decades of partnership. Principal Deputy Spokesperson Tommy Pigott stated, "These actions have put American citizens, tourists, and U.S. interests in Tanzania at risk, and threatened to undermine the mutual prosperity and security that have defined our partnership for decades." He warned that "the future of our bilateral relationship with the Government of Tanzania will be based on its actions."
Between 2012 and 2022, the US provided an estimated $2.8 billion per year in tangible benefits to the Tanzanian economy, according to AidData. Health sector investments alone, primarily through the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), have totaled nearly $7 billion since 2003, saving an estimated 750,000 lives. Trade between the two nations reached $1.4 billion in 2024, with American investments exceeding $1 billion in sectors such as renewable energy, infrastructure, aviation, and environmental technology.
But the US review has not gone unchallenged. Moroccan politician Said Bakkali, head of international relations for Morocco’s Party of Progress and Socialism, accused Washington of wielding its review as a propaganda weapon designed to destabilize Tanzania. Speaking to Sputnik Africa, Bakkali argued, "The United States does not have the right to intervene and to impact the result of elections and the orientation of the voters in African country." He linked the timing of the US announcement—just days before the planned December 9 protests—to an attempt to encourage disturbance and chaos. Bakkali further warned, "Pressure with the US’ ‘diplomatic weapon’ aims to discredit the Tanzanian government and jeopardizes African sovereignty and stability."
His comments reflect a growing sentiment across the continent. As African governments increasingly diversify their international partnerships, many are turning to Russia and China, citing skepticism about US neutrality. This broader realignment in African geopolitics is reshaping relationships amid competing great power interests.
Meanwhile, condemnation of Tanzania’s post-election violence has been nearly universal among international organizations. The European Parliament has called for new elections and investigations, while Ghana became the first African state to demand a credible inquiry into the violence. Observers from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union concluded that the polls failed to meet electoral standards, noting widespread intimidation, irregularities, and limited transparency.
Within Tanzania, the government’s response has been a mixture of defiance and limited concessions. President Hassan announced an inquiry commission to investigate the killings and called for leniency for some protesters facing treason charges. "I am deeply saddened by the incident. I offer my condolences to all the families who lost their loved ones," she told parliament. Yet she also blamed foreigners for inciting the deadly protests, a narrative that resonates with some in the ruling party but has done little to ease international criticism.
Human Rights Watch and other organizations have called for the respect of the right to peaceful protest and the immediate release of arbitrarily detained activists. Journalists, too, have been caught in the crossfire, with many silenced by fear after election-related killings and arrests. The family of journalist Maneno Selanyika, for example, concluded mourning rites in November without ever recovering his body, a haunting testament to the risks faced by the press.
Fifteen foreign missions in Tanzania, including the EU Delegation, the UK, and Canada, issued a joint statement on December 5, 2025, urging an investigation into deaths related to the unrest and citing evidence of concealment. Domestic leaders, for their part, have repeatedly called for peace, nation-building, and for Tanzanian youth to avoid actions that could destabilize the country. But with activists calling for nationwide demonstrations on Independence Day and police declaring such protests illegal, the potential for further violence remains high.
The current crisis marks a dramatic reversal from the optimism that greeted President Hassan when she assumed office in 2021. Early reforms included restoring licenses to banned newspapers, dropping terrorism charges against opposition leader Freeman Mbowe, and lifting restrictions on political rallies. The Council on Foreign Relations and other observers praised her initial efforts, noting improvements in the business climate and dialogue with opposition politicians. Yet by mid-2024, the government had intensified its repression, with dozens of opposition officials disappearing and the political space narrowing even further.
As Tanzanians stocked up on food and water over the weekend, the country’s future hangs in the balance. Whether international pressure will compel meaningful reforms or further entrench authoritarianism remains to be seen. What is certain is that the stakes have never been higher—for Tanzania, for its people, and for the broader region watching closely as events unfold.