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Syria Faces Uncertain Future One Year After Assad

A year after Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, Syria’s new leadership contends with sectarian violence, foreign intervention, and the daunting task of national reconstruction.

6 min read

One year after the dramatic toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s decades-long regime, Syria stands at a crossroads—brimming with both hope and uncertainty. The euphoria that swept Damascus in December 2024, when celebratory gunfire pierced the night sky and jubilant crowds surged through the city’s forbidden palaces, has faded into a sobering reality. Today, Syria’s new rulers, led by former jihadist Ahmed al Sharaa, face the monumental task of rebuilding a nation devastated by war, haunted by sectarian wounds, and caught in the crosshairs of regional rivalries.

According to Sky News, the ousting of Assad and his family, who were sent packing to Moscow, unleashed an outpouring of public joy unseen in generations. For the first time in over fifty years, Syrians sang and danced in the streets, savoring freedoms long denied. Yet, as the dust settled, it became clear that the revolution’s promise would be tested by daunting challenges.

Ahmed al Sharaa, once known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani—the nom de guerre reflecting his Golan Heights roots—emerged as the unlikely face of Syria’s new era. His journey from Al Qaeda commander and Islamic State adversary to pragmatic statesman stunned both Syrians and the world. As BBC News reports, Sharaa’s diplomatic overtures have paid off abroad: he won the backing of Saudi Arabia and Western powers, culminating in a historic May 2025 meeting with US President Donald Trump. The moment was as surreal as it was symbolic—Trump, in a show of camaraderie, doused Sharaa with his own branded cologne and presented him with a bottle for his wife, quipping about the number of wives the new president had. “One,” Sharaa replied, blinking away clouds of fragrance.

This charm offensive proved fruitful. Within weeks, the US scrapped the $10 million bounty on Sharaa’s head. Sanctions that had crippled Syria’s economy—including the punishing Caesar Act—were suspended, with talk in Washington of full repeal by 2026. Investment from Turkey and Gulf states began trickling in, and business deals to modernize oil, gas, and airports were inked. President Trump, according to BBC News, became Sharaa’s most important backer, declaring it “very important that Israel maintain a strong and true dialogue with Syria, and that nothing takes place that will interfere with Syria’s evolution into a prosperous state.”

Yet the road to stability is littered with obstacles. Syria’s physical scars are everywhere: in Aleppo, Homs, and countless villages, families huddle in skeletal buildings gutted by years of bombing. “Syria is still in ruins,” wrote Jeremy Bowen of BBC News, who described visiting cities where people live among rubble and devastation. For all the new government’s achievements—emptying the regime’s notorious prisons, disbanding its secret police, and tolerating alcohol and women’s participation in public life—Sharaa’s authority remains tenuous.

The new administration does not control the entire country. Kurdish forces rule the northeast, while Druze militias in the south, emboldened by support from Israel, seek autonomy. On the Mediterranean coast, Alawite communities—Assad’s sect—live in fear, still traumatized by the massacres of March 2025. The UN human rights office (OHCHR) expressed serious concern in early December 2025 about the “slow pace of justice,” noting that, despite some encouraging steps, “these steps are only the beginning of what needs to be done.” Hundreds have been killed over the past year by security forces, former regime loyalists, local armed groups, and unidentified individuals. The violence, according to the OHCHR, has disproportionately affected Alawite, Druze, Christian, and Bedouin communities, fueled by rising hate speech both online and offline.

Israel’s response to Syria’s transformation has been marked by suspicion and force. Having long opposed the Assads, Israeli airstrikes destroyed much of the new government’s military hardware and seized territory in southern Syria, repeatedly violating Syrian sovereignty. In November 2025, Israeli forces raided the border village of Beit Jinn, arresting alleged Sunni militants and killing at least 13 locals in the ensuing clash. The Damascus government called it a war crime, and calls for retaliation grew louder. As Khalil Abu Daher, a resident wounded in the raid, told BBC News, “I was in my house with my children. We went from one room to another. They shot at my two daughters. One was hit, and the other died instantly. When I picked her up, I was shot in the hand.” His wife, Umm Mohammad, voiced the despair felt by many: “The future is difficult. We have nothing, not even schools. Our children are living in hell here. There is no safety for them. How will we live? We want safety. We go to sleep and wake up afraid.”

Sectarian tensions threaten to unravel the fragile peace. The UN found no evidence that Sharaa’s government ordered the attacks against Alawites in March, but its inability to control armed Sunni factions within its own security forces remains a grave concern. In July, violence between Druze and Bedouin communities in Suweida province forced a rapid American intervention to avert an even bloodier conflict. Tens of thousands were displaced, and the Sharaa administration was shaken to its core.

Islamic State, though weakened, persists as a threat. Its attacks in late 2025 targeted Kurdish-led forces and government soldiers, stoking fears of renewed chaos. Jihadist hardliners denounce Sharaa as a traitor for joining the US-led coalition against IS, branding him an apostate on social media. Despite these dangers, the new government has thus far managed to avoid a full-scale relapse into civil war—a feat that, as one senior Western diplomat told BBC News, is crucial for regional stability.

For all its diplomatic successes, the Sharaa government faces mounting criticism for its slow progress toward genuine political reform. Power remains concentrated in the hands of Sharaa and a small circle of trusted aides, with little sign of a broader, accountable framework. The task of rebuilding Syria—physically, economically, and socially—has largely fallen to individuals, as the government lacks a national reconstruction fund. Deals with foreign investors have yet to deliver meaningful improvements to ordinary Syrians’ lives.

As the anniversary of Assad’s fall passes, Syrians are left to weigh the revolution’s promise against its perils. The window for progress is narrowing, and the country’s future hangs in the balance. Will Sharaa seize the opportunity to forge a stable, inclusive state, or will Syria’s old demons—sectarianism, foreign intervention, and authoritarianism—reassert themselves? For now, the answer is uncertain. But as Umm Mohammad’s words echo through the ruins of Beit Jinn, the longing for peace, security, and a better life remains as urgent as ever.

The coming year will test whether Syria’s new leaders can deliver on the hope that erupted so spectacularly one year ago, or whether the country will slip back into the abyss it so recently escaped.

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