Shares of Strategy Inc. — the company formerly known as MicroStrategy and led by Michael Saylor — have been on a rollercoaster ride in early January 2026, reflecting the high-stakes intersection of cryptocurrency market swings and pivotal regulatory decisions. The latest developments underscore just how closely the company’s fortunes are tied to both the price of bitcoin and its standing in major stock indexes, with billions of dollars in passive investment potentially hanging in the balance.
On January 6, 2026, Strategy Inc. shares tumbled about 5% to $156.41 during regular trading, mirroring a 2.2% drop in bitcoin, which hovered around $92,362, according to Reuters. This decline followed a Monday regulatory filing that revealed a staggering $17.44 billion unrealized loss on digital assets for the fourth quarter and a $5.40 billion unrealized loss for the full year of 2025. These numbers, while eye-popping, are paper losses — reflecting the fluctuating value of bitcoin held on the company’s balance sheet, not actual sales or cash outflows.
Investors have long treated Strategy as a leveraged proxy for bitcoin, given its massive and growing cryptocurrency holdings. When the price of bitcoin moves, Strategy’s stock tends to swing even harder, with accounting gains or losses from its bitcoin stash often overshadowing the company’s underlying software business. The company’s most recent update showed that, from January 1 through January 4, it had acquired another 1,283 bitcoins for $116 million, bringing its total holdings to 673,783 bitcoins as of January 4. These purchases were funded through an at-the-market program, allowing the company to sell new shares gradually into the open market.
But that’s not the only moving part. Strategy also reported a U.S. dollar reserve of $2.25 billion as of early January 2026, a cash cushion set aside to support preferred-stock dividends and interest payments on debt. The company noted, however, that this update was prepared by management and had not been reviewed by its auditor — a detail that adds another layer of complexity for investors trying to assess risk.
The company’s stock had already been battered in 2025, dropping about 47.5% as crypto market volatility hammered firms with large token holdings. In December, Strategy slashed its 2025 earnings forecast, blaming a prolonged stretch of weak bitcoin prices. Other crypto-linked stocks, such as Coinbase Global and Marathon Digital, also suffered declines in afternoon trading on January 6, down about 2.4% and 2.8% respectively, as reported by Decrypt.
Despite these challenges, some analysts remain upbeat. Bernstein analysts, in a research note cited by Reuters, described Strategy’s cash reserve as “a fortress” and reiterated their “Overweight” rating on the stock, with a price target of $450. They argued that as fears of forced liquidation recede, the premium investors assign to the company’s net asset value — essentially, the value of its bitcoin holdings per share — should recover.
Yet the downside risk is clear: if bitcoin prices fall further, Strategy’s paper losses will deepen. Moreover, any reduction in the premium on its shares could make future stock sales more dilutive, potentially making additional bitcoin purchases less attractive for shareholders. The company also retains the right to adjust the size of its cash reserve at its own discretion, adding yet another variable for market watchers to track.
But just as the regular session closed with a gloomy tone, after-hours trading brought a dramatic reversal. Strategy shares soared 6% after MSCI, the influential index provider, announced it would not exclude digital asset treasury companies (DATs) from its indexes in the upcoming February 2026 Index Review. According to Investing.com and Decrypt, this decision was eagerly anticipated by the market, as exclusion could have triggered a wave of forced selling and the loss of billions in passive capital flows for Strategy and similar firms.
MSCI explained its rationale in a statement, noting, “Distinguishing between investment companies and other companies that hold non-operating assets, such as digital assets, as part of their core operations rather than for investment purposes requires further research and consultation with market participants.” For now, MSCI will maintain the current index treatment for companies whose digital asset holdings represent 50% or more of their total assets — meaning Strategy and its peers will stay put in the indexes, provided they meet other requirements.
However, MSCI isn’t closing the book on the issue. The index provider signaled plans for a broader consultation on how to treat non-operating companies in general, acknowledging growing investor concerns that some digital asset treasury companies resemble investment funds, which are typically ineligible for index inclusion. While the status quo remains for now, MSCI clarified it will not increase the Number of Shares, Foreign Inclusion Factor, or Domestic Inclusion Factor for affected securities, and will defer any additions or size-segment migrations for these companies.
The relief was palpable across the sector. Other DATs, such as Bitmine Immersion, Sharplink, and Twenty One Capital, saw modest after-hours gains — with Bitmine Immersion shares climbing 3.5%. Even bitcoin, which had been under pressure for much of the day, bounced about 1% on the news, trading around $93,500, according to Decrypt.
For Strategy, the MSCI decision removes a major overhang — at least for now. The company’s continued inclusion in key indexes means it will retain access to passive investment flows from funds that track those benchmarks. This could help stabilize its share price and provide more flexibility for future bitcoin acquisitions.
Yet volatility remains the name of the game. As highlighted by Bitwise, a leading crypto asset manager, three major tests loom for the broader market in 2026: the risk of forced liquidations has faded, but progress on U.S. crypto market structure legislation remains uncertain, and a sharp downturn in equities could still derail crypto’s momentum. For Strategy and its investors, the ride is likely to remain bumpy, with fortunes tied tightly to both regulatory winds and the ever-unpredictable price of bitcoin.
In a landscape where digital assets and traditional finance increasingly collide, the past week has shown just how quickly sentiment can swing — and how crucial regulatory clarity remains for companies straddling both worlds.
