The NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend is closing out with a bang as the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Houston Texans in what’s shaping up to be a classic grind-it-out playoff battle. Set for January 11, 2026, at the Steelers’ home turf, this matchup is more than just a game—it’s a collision of two teams who fought tooth and nail to reach the postseason. With frigid temperatures and a chance of snow in the forecast, the stakes—and the drama—couldn’t be higher.
Pittsburgh clinched its playoff berth in dramatic fashion, barely squeaking in after a last-second missed field goal gifted them the AFC North title. The Steelers finished the regular season with an average of 23.4 points per game, just a hair behind the Texans’ 23.8. Houston, on the other hand, locked up a wild card spot by finishing second in the AFC South, thanks in large part to a defense that allowed just 17.4 points per game—the second-best mark in the entire league. That defensive prowess could be the difference-maker in a game where every inch counts.
But who will step up when it matters most? The player prop market is buzzing, and fans and bettors alike are zeroing in on some key names to watch. For the Steelers, all eyes are on DK Metcalf, the team’s top wide receiver. After serving a suspension for an altercation against the Detroit Lions in Week 156, Metcalf is back and ready to make an impact in his first playoff game with Pittsburgh. According to Sports Illustrated, “Metcalf, in the regular season, was below average in covering the over on his Monday night receiving yard line set at 55.5 yards. He hit the over in just four out of 15 games. However, in the postseason of his career, he has been much better at covering the over on this line. Metcalf, in his career, has played in four postseason bouts and has had over 56 receiving yards in all games by a wide margin most times. He had over 95 receiving yards in three of the contests.”
With quarterback Aaron Rodgers expected to target Metcalf early and often, the over on Metcalf’s 55.5 receiving yards prop is looking tempting. In fact, the consensus among analysts is that Metcalf’s playoff pedigree makes him a strong anytime touchdown scorer pick at +230 odds. As one CBS Sports analyst put it, “It was easy to tell how badly Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers missed Metcalf in the season finale against the Ravens. Pittsburgh's top receiver will be back from his suspension for the playoffs, and it's easy to imagine Rodgers trying to get him involved early and often.”
But Metcalf isn’t the only weapon in Pittsburgh’s arsenal. Running back Kenneth Gainwell has emerged as one of Rodgers’ favorite targets, especially in the passing game. Gainwell’s receiving yards over/under line is set at 33.5 yards, and he’s exceeded that mark in three of his last four games. Houston’s defense, for all its strengths, has shown some vulnerability here—allowing an opposing running back to surpass 30 receiving yards in three of their last four regular-season contests. This sets the stage for Gainwell to play a significant role, particularly if the Texans’ pass rush forces Rodgers to check down more frequently.
Of course, the Steelers’ ground game faces a stiff test. Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh’s other prominent running back, has a rushing yards under line of 52.5 yards. The Texans’ run defense has been stout, allowing the 10th fewest rushing yards per game over their last three outings. In fact, only one of the last three opposing RB1s managed to cover the over on Warren’s line. Compounding matters, Warren hasn’t logged 15 or more carries in any of his last six regular-season games, making the under on his rushing prop an attractive play for those looking to bet against the run.
On the Houston side, the offense has its own set of playmakers ready to shine. Wide receiver Nico Collins stands out as the top anytime touchdown scorer pick for the Texans at +145 odds. The Texans’ running game has been lackluster all season, ranking 30th in both rushing success rate and red zone touchdown rate. That means Houston will likely lean on its aerial attack, and Collins is the one truly dynamic player in that group. As the CBS Sports analysis notes, “The Texans got a measly nine touchdowns from running backs this year. Houston was an astonishing 30th in rushing success rate and were 30th in touchdown rate in the red zone. The Texans will lean on their defense to carry the day here, so it'll likely be the usual suspects on offense. That points us towards Collins, the one truly dynamic player in this aerial attack.”
Running back Woody Marks, who’s become the Texans’ main ball carrier, faces a tough road. His rushing yards prop is set at 54.5, but the Steelers’ run defense has been lights out, allowing the fourth fewest rushing yards per game in their last three regular-season contests. Marks’ versatility as a pass-catcher gives him some upside, but on the ground, it’s hard to see him breaking loose against Pittsburgh’s front seven.
Meanwhile, tight end Dalton Schultz could be the X-factor for Houston. The Steelers have struggled to contain opposing tight ends, allowing TE1s to catch more than 4.5 passes in three of their last four games. Schultz has covered the over on his 4.5 reception prop in four of his last six games, making him a prime candidate to rack up catches in this matchup. If Houston’s ground game stalls, look for quarterback C.J. Stroud to lean heavily on Schultz as a safety valve over the middle.
As for the weather, the threat of snow in Pittsburgh looms large. Cold, slippery conditions could favor the defenses and force both teams into more conservative, run-heavy game plans. But with both the Steelers and Texans ranking near the bottom in rushing efficiency, don’t be surprised if this turns into an aerial chess match, with Rodgers and Stroud dueling for a spot in the next round.
With so many storylines converging—Metcalf’s return, Rodgers’ playoff experience, the Texans’ stingy defense, and a forecast that could throw a wrench in both teams’ plans—this wild card showdown has all the makings of a classic. The game is still to be decided, but one thing’s for sure: whichever team adapts best to the conditions and capitalizes on their playmakers will earn the right to keep their Super Bowl dreams alive.
