South Carolina Republicans are preparing for a high-stakes, fast-moving primary to fill the U.S. Senate seat left vacant after the sudden death of longtime Senator Lindsey Graham in July 2026. According to a new Emerson College poll conducted July 28-29 and released Thursday, Rep. Ralph Norman leads the crowded GOP field with 22% support among likely primary voters, closely followed by newly appointed Sen. Darline Graham at 19%. Rep. Russell Fry trails with 12%, former Rep. Mark Sanford with 11%, businessman Mark Lynch with 7%, and Danny Ford II with 2%. Notably, a quarter of GOP voters remain undecided as the August 11 special primary approaches, reflecting the uncertainty and fluidity of the race (The Hill, Nexstar, CNN).
The poll, sponsored by Nexstar Media and surveying 500 likely Republican primary voters, carries a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points. The data, weighted by gender, education, age, and region, reveals generational divides: Norman draws his strongest support from voters under 50 (24%) and those in their 50s (25%), while Graham’s base is older, with 30% of her supporters over age 70 (Emerson College Polling, The Hill).
Darline Graham’s candidacy is unique and, for some, controversial. After Lindsey Graham’s unexpected death from an aortic dissection due to arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease at age 71, she was appointed to serve the remainder of his term. President Donald Trump played a central role in orchestrating her appointment, and just days later, publicly encouraged her to run for a full six-year term, calling her a “true American Patriot.” Trump’s endorsement, however, has landed with mixed reactions among South Carolina Republicans. While 29% of voters say it makes them more likely to support her, a majority—53%—say it has no impact, and 18% say it makes them less likely to back her (The Hill, CNN).
Some GOP insiders and activists have voiced frustration with what they see as a “backroom deal” and a “family Senate seat being passed down.” CJ Westfall, chairman of the Dorchester County GOP, told CNN: “The issue is that the president continues to get bad advice about South Carolina. We certainly empathize with Darline—and even the president, as Lindsey was a really good friend of his—but he’s certainly getting bad advice. We’ve got a lot more exciting options for this seat. It’s a once-in-a-generation opportunity.” Other state lawmakers and county officials echoed concerns about the optics of “coronations” and “monarchies,” suggesting that voters may resent the appearance of an inherited seat.
Still, Graham’s allies believe she will win over South Carolina Republicans now that her brother’s funerals—attended by dignitaries including President Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—are behind her and she can fully campaign. Graham herself has leaned into her outsider status, saying at a recent joint appearance with her competitors in Lexington, “I’ve never had any desire to be a politician. I’m here today because I’m answering President Trump’s call to serve. I want to stand up for South Carolina and I want to fight for President Trump’s agenda.”
Graham’s campaign is expected to highlight her career in state government, including her tenure since 2019 as commissioner of the South Carolina Commission for the Blind, and her record of making government more efficient. “We turned it from a struggling organization into a national model,” she said Saturday. Since her appointment, she has inherited her brother’s committee assignments and quickly cosponsored major bills, such as the SAVE America Act—a Trump priority—and a Russia sanctions bill named after Lindsey Graham. She’s positioned herself as more focused on domestic issues than her late brother, remarking, “Lindsey was an expert on the federal budget. I’m an expert on the family budget.”
Despite Trump’s backing, Graham faces stiff competition. The primary field is crowded, and the race is expected to go to a runoff—a debate is already scheduled for a week after the primary. Rep. Ralph Norman, who describes himself as a “proven conservative,” has the backing of Sens. Mike Lee and Rick Scott, as well as fellow South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace. Norman’s campaign spokeswoman, Brittany Yanick, said he “will run a positive campaign and focus on highlighting [his] proven America First conservative record.”
Rep. Russell Fry, meanwhile, touts his status as part of a “new generation” of leadership and maintains he has a long record of loyalty to Trump. “When nobody else really in this field was with the president, we were,” Fry said in a radio interview this week. “He’s very high on me too.” Fry has been endorsed by 40 state lawmakers and has already raised more than $800,000. Mark Sanford, the former governor and congressman, has a super PAC spending over $1 million on his behalf. Mark Lynch, who challenged Lindsey Graham earlier this year, is running again, emphasizing the need for fresh solutions.
The field’s diversity reflects a broader debate within the GOP about the direction of the party, the influence of Trump, and the importance of political experience versus outsider credentials. Tyson Grinstead, a Republican National Committee member from South Carolina, suggested Trump’s endorsement may carry more weight in the Senate race than it did in the recent gubernatorial primary, noting that South Carolina Republicans value effectiveness in Washington and a close relationship with the president.
The poll also sheds light on the issues animating voters. Sixty percent of special election voters say the economy should be the next senator’s top priority, followed by immigration (19%), healthcare (8%), and foreign policy (4%). On pocketbook issues, 42% of Republican voters blame President Biden for grocery prices, while 32% blame former President Trump for high gas prices. When it comes to foreign policy, 73% support U.S. military action in Iran, 20% oppose it, and 8% are neutral (Emerson College Polling).
Debate is a key demand: 88% of Republican voters believe Senate candidates should participate in a debate before the special election, signaling a desire for transparency and direct engagement. As one longtime GOP activist, Eaddy Willard, observed, “Overall my sense of Darline has always been that she’s just very grounded… She seemed comfortable in any situation and not flustered by sometimes the pomp and circumstance that is politics.”
With the August 11 primary fast approaching, South Carolina’s GOP voters are facing a rare and consequential choice—a race defined by family legacy, national political forces, and the urgent issues that matter most to everyday citizens. The outcome remains uncertain, but the contest has already sparked one of the most spirited debates in recent state memory.