SoftBank Group Corp., the Japanese technology and investment conglomerate, has staged a dramatic return to profitability, riding high on the surging valuation of its bold bet in OpenAI. After a turbulent period marked by losses and market skepticism, SoftBank reported a net profit of 248.6 billion yen ($1.62 billion) for the October to December 2025 quarter, marking its fourth consecutive profitable quarter. This turnaround, announced on February 12, 2026, is largely attributed to the company's significant—and some say audacious—investment in OpenAI, the artificial intelligence powerhouse behind ChatGPT.
According to Reuters, SoftBank’s earnings have been “flattered by the rising valuation” of its OpenAI stake, which has become one of the most closely watched holdings in the global tech sector. The Tokyo-based company has poured more than $30 billion into OpenAI, amassing an 11% stake as of December 2025. The company disclosed that its investment gain on OpenAI stood at an estimated $19.8 billion by the end of the year, a figure that has generated both excitement and caution among investors and analysts alike.
SoftBank’s journey back to profit is especially notable given the scale of its commitment to OpenAI. As reported by CNBC, the company posted a $2.4 billion gain at its Vision Fund in the December quarter, driven by a $4.2 billion gain on the value of its OpenAI investment during the fiscal third quarter. This gain helped offset losses from declines in other high-profile bets, such as Coupang and Didi, as well as a markdown in its stake in ByteDance, the creator of TikTok. The result: a fiscal third-quarter net profit of 248.6 billion yen ($1.6 billion), reversing a loss from the same period the previous year.
SoftBank’s founder and CEO, Masayoshi Son, has made no secret of his belief that artificial intelligence will reshape the future. In 2024, Son predicted the emergence of artificial superintelligence (ASI) within a decade, describing it as a technology “10,000 times more intelligent than humans.” This conviction has driven SoftBank to position itself at the heart of the AI revolution, with Chief Financial Officer Yoshimitsu Goto revealing during a recent presentation that 60% of the company’s assets are now “ASI-oriented investments.”
“We assume OpenAI will be able to lead this industry and this era, and we are quite convinced. So that’s [why] we are making an investment in this company,” Goto stated, according to CNBC. The company’s AI push is further evidenced by the creation of a new ‘AI Computing Segment’ in its earnings report, which includes chip designer Arm, as well as Graphcore and Ampere—two other semiconductor businesses it has acquired. This segment, however, posted a loss of 91.8 billion yen in the nine months ending December 2025, a result of higher headcount and acquisition-related costs associated with Ampere.
SoftBank’s aggressive investment in OpenAI has not come without its challenges. To finance its bets, the company has been selling off stakes in other major tech firms. In October 2025, SoftBank sold its entire stake in Nvidia for $5.83 billion, and between June and December, it sold $12.73 billion worth of T-Mobile stock. The company has also expanded a margin loan secured by shares in Arm to $20 billion, up from $13.5 billion previously, and increased borrowings against its domestic telecom unit to 1.2 trillion yen from 800 billion yen. These maneuvers have helped SoftBank funnel more capital into OpenAI, but they have also raised questions about the company’s risk exposure and financial stability.
As reported by Reuters, SoftBank’s loan-to-value ratio—a key measure of indebtedness—rose to 20.6% at the end of December 2025, up from 16.5% three months earlier. Meanwhile, its cash reserves decreased to 3.8 trillion yen over the same period. Despite these concerns, SoftBank shares closed up 2.4% on February 12, 2026, ahead of the earnings release, buoyed by strong results at its telecommunications unit and a rally in Arm’s stock price.
While SoftBank’s stake in OpenAI is housed within the Vision Fund 2 investment vehicle, 17% of which is owned directly by Masayoshi Son, the company is increasingly being viewed by investors as a publicly traded proxy for OpenAI itself. This perception has led to heightened scrutiny of SoftBank’s spending spree and its impact on the company’s finances, especially as competition in the AI space intensifies.
OpenAI, once considered the dominant player among large language model developers, now faces stiff competition from the likes of Google and Anthropic. The latter, in particular, has publicly criticized OpenAI over its decision to test ads in ChatGPT and its spending plans, while Anthropic’s Claude Code and Claude Cowork have gained traction among business customers. According to CNBC, OpenAI is reportedly raising a new funding round of around $100 billion, though SoftBank’s CFO Goto stated on February 12, 2026, that “nothing has been decided” regarding further investment by SoftBank in the startup.
Despite these competitive pressures, OpenAI’s products continue to show robust growth. Last week, OpenAI chief Sam Altman told employees that ChatGPT is “back to exceeding 10% monthly growth,” while Codex, a rival to Anthropic’s Claude Code, is also seeing strong uptake. These developments underscore the dynamic and rapidly evolving nature of the AI landscape—a landscape in which SoftBank is betting heavily on OpenAI to emerge as a long-term winner.
Yet, as SoftBank’s exposure to OpenAI deepens, so too does the market’s concern about the risks of concentrating so much capital in a single, still-unprofitable firm. According to Reuters, five analysts surveyed by LSEG projected a wide range for SoftBank’s quarterly net income, reflecting uncertainty about the company’s future prospects. The heavy exposure to OpenAI means that SoftBank’s fortunes are increasingly tied to the success—or failure—of the U.S. AI firm, especially as OpenAI prepares for what could be one of the largest initial public offerings ever.
For now, SoftBank’s all-in wager on OpenAI appears to be paying off, at least on paper. The company’s anticipated total investment gain of $19.8 billion as of December 2025 is a testament to the soaring value of its stake. Whether this gamble will continue to deliver returns in the face of growing competition and rising costs remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: Masayoshi Son and SoftBank are determined to stake their future on the transformative power of artificial intelligence, come what may.