In the rolling plains of South Dakota, a quiet crisis is reshaping the future of American beef. As the sun rises over cattle ranches, industry leaders and political figures are clashing over the causes—and potential cures—of soaring beef prices, shrinking herds, and the vanishing presence of young ranchers. The debate, which has spilled from rural barns to the halls of Washington, reveals a story far more complex than a simple supply-and-demand equation.
At the heart of the issue, according to South Dakota Searchlight, is a dramatic decline in the number of cattle producers. Aberdeen’s DemKota beef processing plant, a regional powerhouse, bought cattle from 400 producers in 2024. This year, that number dropped to just 300. Adam Bode, DemKota’s CEO, didn’t mince words when speaking to the Sioux Falls Downtown Rotary Club: “That wasn’t because we chose to. It’s because the producers aren’t there any longer.”
The statistics are sobering. The average age of a South Dakota cattle producer is now 63, and the pipeline of new entrants is drying up fast. “It is a high capital business to get started. That’s the biggest hurdle to get new players in it, and we desperately need them,” Bode urged, appealing directly to bankers to support young ranchers. Since 2019, the South Dakota Governor’s Office of Economic Development has approved just $4.6 million in bonds for 13 beginning farmers and ranchers statewide—an average of about $354,000 per award. It’s a drop in the bucket given the capital required to break into the industry.
The volatility of cattle markets only makes things tougher. Dave Geraets, who manages 2,500 head of cattle and grows row crops near Colton, described the business as “wildly volatile.” Diversification—combining cattle with crops—can help buffer the blows of market swings, especially when corn prices spike. But for newcomers, the cost of land and livestock is daunting. “No matter if it’s land or cattle, all of it is expensive,” Geraets said, voicing a hope that his own children might stay in the business.
That volatility reached historic levels in 2025. In August, cattle prices soared to an all-time high, driven by low inventory. But the rally was short-lived. President Donald Trump, aiming to lower beef prices for consumers, announced plans to increase tariff-free beef imports from Argentina from 20,000 to 80,000 metric tons annually. The result, as Ryan Eichler of the South Dakota Cattlemen’s Foundation put it, was dramatic: “We retracted that market by 25% in two weeks. Imagine the stock market retracting 25% in two weeks.” Craig Bieber, vice president of the South Dakota Cattlemen’s Association, called the move “a gut punch.”
The fallout has reverberated across the industry. U.S. Senator Mike Rounds of South Dakota met with Trump’s team to discuss ranchers’ concerns, and Trump soon called for federal investigations into the so-called “big four” beef packers—JBS, Cargill, Tyson, and National Beef—for potential collusion, price fixing, and price manipulation. “There still aren’t enough animals,” Bode observed, noting that even the industry giants are struggling. Last month, Tyson announced the closure of its Lexington, Nebraska plant, which could process 5,000 cattle a day but was running at only 3,600. Bode predicted more closures would follow: “It’s the first of several, really, in our opinion.”
But the battle over beef has also become a political flashpoint. On December 4, 2025, Peter Navarro, a top trade adviser to Trump, posted a video on X (formerly Twitter) squarely blaming President Joe Biden for what he called “hamburger inflation.” Navarro’s argument was pointed: “Hamburger is way too expensive. We can all agree on that.” He cited higher diesel, feed, and fertilizer costs, as well as new grazing limits on federal land, as evidence that Biden’s policies were squeezing ranchers and consumers alike. “So Biden left us with the smallest cattle herd in more than 70 years and soaring prices,” Navarro declared. He argued that beef production is a long pipeline—“Beef takes up to two years from birthed calf to burger, so Biden’s damage is baked in”—and promised that Trump’s return would bring cheaper beef through “drill-baby-drill, expanded grazing and pro-rancher policies.”
Navarro’s parting shot was pure politics: “Democrats cause inflation. Trump cures it.” But experts and industry observers offer a more nuanced picture. According to the Associated Press, beef prices have been climbing for years, long before either Biden or Trump took office. The U.S. cattle herd has been shrinking for decades, and as of January 1, 2025, stood at 86.7 million—its lowest since 1951 and down 8 percent from its 2019 peak, according to the Agriculture Department. Trump’s own tariffs on Brazilian beef, a major source of imports, had previously squeezed supply before the recent policy reversal. Even Trump’s call for a Justice Department investigation into foreign-owned meat packers, issued after Republican losses in the 2025 elections, is seen by some as more political theater than economic solution.
Industry concentration is another sticking point. Four companies—JBS, Cargill, Tyson, and National Beef—dominate the U.S. beef market. Their ownership structure has remained stable in recent years, and while critics allege price manipulation, trade groups representing packers insist they are not the villains. Still, the perception of “hyperconsolidation” has fueled bipartisan calls for greater scrutiny and reform.
Meanwhile, demand for beef remains robust. Americans are still willing to pay for steaks and burgers, even as prices rise. Glynn Tonsor, who leads the Meat Demand Monitor at Kansas State University, told the Associated Press that consumer appetite for beef has not cooled. This unyielding demand, combined with a shrinking herd and ongoing industry volatility, keeps prices elevated and the pressure on producers intense.
For smaller operators like DemKota, the challenges are daunting but not insurmountable. The company processes about 300,000 cattle annually, focusing on higher-end cuts to differentiate itself. But as Bode quipped, “We have an internal joke in our industry: If you ever want to make a couple million bucks in beef processing, just start with a couple billion.” Capital access remains a major hurdle—not just for ranchers, but for processors as well.
As the beef industry faces an uncertain future, one thing is clear: the path forward will require more than political soundbites or quick fixes. It will demand investment, innovation, and a new generation willing—and able—to take the reins. For now, the fate of America’s beef remains as unsettled as the prairie winds.
