As the clock struck 2:20pm in Edinburgh on January 13, 2026, all eyes in Scotland’s political world turned to the Scottish Parliament chamber. It was there that Finance Secretary Shona Robison, in her final act before stepping down from frontline politics in May, rose to deliver what many are calling one of the most pivotal Scottish Budgets in recent memory. With the nation facing economic headwinds, rising public expectations, and an impending election, the stakes could hardly be higher.
Robison’s budget, covering spending plans for 2026/27, was expected to set out the Scottish Government’s priorities on everything from health and housing to education and local government. According to The Scotsman, the budget statement was scheduled for the mid-afternoon, with the details of departmental allocations, tax changes, and welfare reforms eagerly anticipated by MSPs and the public alike. The budget’s passage would not be straightforward, given that the SNP no longer holds a majority in Holyrood and would require support from opposition parties to see its plans through.
For many ordinary Scots, the budget’s contents are not just numbers on a page but a matter of daily life. Take Alan Mcaulay, a 54-year-old customer sales adviser from Kilmarnock. With a household income of £23,800 and a mortgage-free home, Alan and his wife still find themselves carefully balancing their budget. "I’d like to see the Scottish government move the bands for income tax to make sure I’m not penalised for any pay increases," Alan told BBC News. His other priority? More funding for the NHS, a sentiment echoed by countless others who rely on Scotland’s public health system.
Public engagement was a clear theme ahead of the budget announcement, with BBC News inviting citizens to share their hopes and concerns for the coming year’s spending plans. The sense of anticipation was palpable, and not just among voters. Political parties across the spectrum were lining up their wish lists and criticisms, each hoping to shape the final outcome.
The Scottish Labour Party, led by Anas Sarwar, signaled that they would not oppose the budget—a pragmatic move, as the party is confident of electoral gains in May and thus more influence over future spending. However, Labour did push for increased housebuilding, highlighting the ongoing housing crisis as a key area needing attention. According to The Scotsman, Sarwar’s approach was less about immediate opposition and more about positioning Labour as the government-in-waiting.
By contrast, the Scottish Conservatives, under Russell Findlay, took aim at the spiraling welfare bill. With benefit payments currently at £7 billion per year and projected to hit £10 billion by decade’s end, the Conservatives called for lower taxes and reduced welfare spending. They also flagged concerns about recent business rates revaluations, which have seen some commercial rates skyrocket—an issue that has business owners on edge.
The Scottish Greens, meanwhile, continued to champion policies aimed at social equity and environmental sustainability. Their priorities included extending free bus travel to all under-30s, expanding free school meals and childcare, introducing a mansion tax, and raising taxes on casinos and betting shops. The Greens’ co-leaders, Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay, have argued that such measures would not only tackle inequality but also help Scotland meet its climate and social justice goals.
The Scottish Liberal Democrats also weighed in, advocating for more support for people with ADHD and autism, additional help with childcare costs, measures to tackle delayed hospital discharges, and targeted aid for island communities still reeling from the ferries scandal. Leader Alex Cole-Hamilton emphasized the need for practical support for vulnerable groups and communities at risk of being left behind.
As The Scotsman noted, the SNP’s lack of a majority made cross-party cooperation essential. Last year, deals with the Lib Dems and Greens helped the budget pass, but this year’s pre-election atmosphere has made negotiations more fraught. With just over 100 days until the Holyrood election, every party is keenly aware that budget decisions now could sway voters in May.
Yet the political wrangling is only part of the story. Scotland’s financial situation is, by most accounts, precarious. Audit Scotland projects a £4.7 billion spending gap within three years, and the Fraser of Allander Institute has highlighted significant shortfalls in capital spending. For 2027, the pipeline of construction projects is expected to reach £8.1 billion, but only £7.1 billion is available—a £1 billion gap that threatens infrastructure ambitions.
Despite these challenges, there are bright spots. Scotland’s economy, while hampered by long-term issues like low productivity, has recently outperformed the UK as a whole. And in November, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves adjusted national spending plans, resulting in an extra £820 million for Scotland by the end of the decade. Still, as The Scotsman points out, this windfall does not fully close the looming funding gap.
Welfare and social security spending remain hot topics. With the Scottish Government already allocating around £7 billion annually to benefits—and that figure set to rise—debate rages over how best to target support. The government also has £150 million previously earmarked to mitigate the UK’s two-child benefit cap, now lifted. Child poverty campaigners want this money redirected to boost the Scottish Child Payment or expand free childcare, both seen as effective anti-poverty measures.
Taxation, as always, is under the microscope. Holyrood controls nearly all aspects of income tax, and while First Minister John Swinney has promised not to change rates or the number of bands, speculation is rife that thresholds will be adjusted. This could push more Scots into higher tax brackets, increasing their tax bills. For context, a Scottish taxpayer earning £50,000 currently pays £1,500 more than a counterpart in England, though most Scots pay £28 less per year on average. Other devolved taxes—council tax, land and buildings transaction tax, landfill tax, and non-domestic rates—are also in play.
At the heart of it all lies the NHS, Scotland’s biggest spending pressure and a perennial political battleground. With public satisfaction and waiting times both under scrutiny, many—including Alan Mcaulay—are hoping for a significant boost in health funding.
The legislative process for the budget is set to unfold over the coming weeks, with a bill to be introduced on January 15, official publication on January 16, and debates scheduled throughout February. If all goes to plan, royal assent will be granted by March 31, just in time for the new financial year—and, crucially, before the next election campaign kicks into high gear.
As the dust settles on Shona Robison’s final budget, the choices made today will reverberate through Scottish households, public services, and political halls for years to come. The challenge now is not just to balance the books, but to chart a course that delivers on the hopes of citizens like Alan, addresses the concerns of every party, and keeps Scotland on a path toward a fairer, more prosperous future.
