In a political twist that few saw coming a year ago, Ohio's Senate race has taken center stage in the national battle for control of Congress. A new Fox News poll, released on June 4, 2026, shows Democratic nominee Sherrod Brown leading Republican incumbent Senator Jon Husted by a solid eight-point margin, 53% to 45%. The poll, conducted from May 28 to June 1 and surveying 1,015 registered Ohio voters, has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points, placing Brown's lead comfortably outside the statistical margin.
This sudden shift in the political winds is reverberating well beyond the Buckeye State. Just two years ago, Ohio seemed to be cementing its reputation as a Republican stronghold after former President Donald Trump carried it by more than 11 points in 2024. Brown, a three-term senator, had narrowly lost his seat to Republican Bernie Moreno in that same election. But now, with Brown seeking a return to the Senate, the tables appear to have turned.
The poll results suggest that Brown’s resurgence isn’t a fluke. His support base is broad and diverse, cutting across traditional party lines. According to Fox News, Brown draws 98% support from Democrats, but also manages to attract 31% of non-MAGA Republicans and 13% of all Republicans. He’s particularly strong among voters under 35 (leading by 33 points), independents (up 18 points), women (up 14 points), and non-white voters (who favor him by a whopping 58-point margin). Among White voters, the race is dead even at 49% each. The contest is nearly tied among voters 45 and older, but Brown holds a 23-point lead among those under 45.
Husted, for his part, hasn’t been left in the dust. He commands the loyalty of 86% of Republicans and dominates among White evangelical Christians (by 32 points), rural voters (by 11 points), and White men without a college degree (by 7 points). Still, these traditional Republican strongholds aren’t enough to offset Brown’s gains among swing voters and demographic groups that have become more influential in Ohio’s evolving electorate.
What’s fueling Brown’s comeback? The answer may lie in the shifting fortunes of Donald Trump. The Fox News poll found Trump’s favorability in Ohio at just 42%, with 57% of respondents holding an unfavorable view—a dramatic 20-point drop from his standing in November 2024, when he was viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 46%. This decline is more than a statistical blip; it reflects a broader national trend as gas prices and inflation bite into household budgets and voters reassess their political loyalties.
It’s not just Trump’s numbers that are sliding. Husted, widely seen as a Trump ally, faces his own image problem: 46% of Ohio voters say he’s too close to the former president, including 10% of Husted’s own supporters. As HuffPost notes, "The state remains solidly Republican, but Democrats are united against Trump allies and independents prefer Brown." That sentiment is echoed by Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who told Fox News, "There’s good reason for the Democrats to be bullish on Ohio."
Still, it would be a mistake to chalk up Brown’s lead solely to Trump’s woes. The poll reveals that voters’ top concern is inflation and high prices, cited by 43% as the most important issue in their Senate vote. Healthcare comes in a distant second at 12%, followed by immigration and border security at 11%. Among those who prioritize inflation, Brown leads by 14 points—a remarkable feat in a state where economic anxiety runs high. Voters focused on healthcare favor Brown by 44 points, while those who care most about immigration and border security break heavily for Husted (by 76 points).
The economic backdrop is hard to ignore. The average price of a gallon of regular gas in Ohio has shot up to about $4.18, up from $3.06 a year ago, according to AAA. Nearly four in ten Ohio voters (39%) say their family is falling behind financially, up from 32% in 2024, while just under half (49%) say they’re holding steady—a nine-point drop. These pocketbook issues are driving voters to the polls, with 82% of Democrats and 76% of Republicans saying they’re extremely or very motivated to vote in November.
The candidates’ personal brands also matter. While 39% of Ohioans worry that Brown is too liberal—including 13% of his own supporters—a larger share (46%) say Husted is too close to Trump. Among Brown supporters, 68% say they’re voting mainly for him rather than against Husted. Husted’s backers are less enthusiastic, with 58% saying their vote is mainly for him, compared to 39% who are voting mainly against Brown.
Despite the clear lead, the race isn’t set in stone. About 73% of Brown’s supporters and 69% of Husted’s say they’re certain of their choice, but a quarter of voters still say they could change their mind before November. The stakes couldn’t be higher: with Republicans holding a slim Senate majority, Democrats need to net four seats to retake control, and Ohio is seen as a potential tipping point. The winner of this special election will serve out the remaining two years of JD Vance’s term, after he vacated the seat to become vice president, before facing another election in 2028.
Ohio’s political landscape is shifting in other ways, too. The governor’s race is a virtual dead heat, with Democrat Amy Acton leading Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 50% to 49%. Fourteen percent of Brown’s Senate supporters plan to cross party lines and back Ramaswamy for governor, a sign of just how fluid voter loyalties have become in the Buckeye State.
As the November election approaches, both parties are ramping up their efforts. Democrats are betting on Brown’s name recognition and a sense of “buyer’s remorse” among voters who regret his 2024 loss. Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping that traditional loyalties and concerns about liberal overreach will bring their voters back to the fold. But with Trump’s influence waning and economic worries dominating the conversation, the outcome is anything but certain.
For now, Sherrod Brown has the upper hand in a race that could decide the balance of power in Washington. Whether he can hold onto that lead as undecided voters make up their minds remains the big question—one that will keep Ohio, and the nation, watching closely all the way to Election Day.