Global attention is once again fixed on Riyadh this week as Saudi Arabia hosts its flagship Future Investment Initiative (FII) conference, drawing an elite roster of financial leaders, politicians, and business titans. This gathering, held under the opulent domes of the city’s grand conference center, is the first of its kind since Donald Trump’s return to the White House and comes at a time of both immense promise and mounting pressure for the kingdom.
The FII, sometimes dubbed “Davos in the Desert,” has long served as Saudi Arabia’s showcase for its ambitious economic transformation. According to Reuters, this year’s event is attended by high-profile figures such as Colombian President Gustavo Petro, BlackRock’s Larry Fink, JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon, and Citi’s Jane Fraser, now co-chair of the U.S.-Saudi Business Council. Tech and energy leaders, including Intel’s Lip-Bu Tan and Aramco’s Amin Nasser, are also present, reflecting the kingdom’s campaign to diversify beyond oil and attract global capital.
But behind the lavish setting and hopeful rhetoric, Saudi Arabia faces a raft of challenges. As reported by BBC and Reuters, the world’s largest oil exporter is under growing pressure to prove that its economic plans—like the $1 trillion NEOM mega-city and the Trojena ski resort—are more than just grand promises. Many projects are delayed, and the government is grappling with budget deficits now expected to reach 5.3% of GDP in 2025. Low oil prices and heavy investment commitments have forced officials to prioritize and even scale back some headline initiatives. For example, NEOM’s much-touted “The Line” city has been reduced in scope, with current efforts focused on completing a crucial 2.4-kilometer stretch to house a World Cup stadium.
Investor confidence remains tentative. According to the Associated Press, while the kingdom is seeking $100 billion in annual foreign direct investment by 2030, most of the largest deals still center on the energy sector. Karen Young, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told Reuters, “It’s a very difficult target.” Even so, major banks including Citi and Goldman Sachs are deepening their regional presence, setting up headquarters and expanding teams in Saudi Arabia.
All of this unfolds against a backdrop of regional tension and shifting diplomatic sands. The fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire in Gaza has provided a momentary pause in violence but has also underscored the urgency of broader Middle East diplomacy. As reported by the Associated Press, President Trump’s administration is preparing for a high-profile visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) to the White House next month, tentatively scheduled for November 17-19. This would be the crown prince’s first visit to the United States since the 2018 murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi—a killing that U.S. intelligence agencies say was likely directed by the prince, though he denies direct involvement.
The upcoming visit is expected to feature the signing of commercial and trade agreements as part of a Strategic Economic Partnership, with the possibility of a long-sought bilateral security deal also on the table. According to U.S. officials cited by the Associated Press, the Trump team is working behind the scenes to prepare a package of agreements that could be unveiled during the visit. The White House and the Saudi Embassy have declined to comment publicly on the specifics, but Bloomberg first reported the expected trip.
President Trump’s approach marks a renewed effort to restore relations with Gulf Arab nations, many of whom were incensed by Israel’s attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar as they discussed a U.S. ceasefire proposal. Trump’s first major foreign trip in his second term was to Saudi Arabia, where he expressed hope for expanded business ties and suggested increased military cooperation. The Associated Press notes that previous attempts to bring Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords—the agreements that normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states—have so far failed, but the current ceasefire has revived hopes for progress.
Yet, the path to normalization is far from straightforward. Israeli far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich recently ignited controversy with comments widely seen as derogatory toward Saudi Arabia. As reported by BBC, Smotrich said, “If Saudi Arabia says to us 'normalization in exchange for a Palestinian state,' friend, no, thank you. Continue riding camels on the sand in the desert.” He later apologized for the remarks, but the episode highlights the delicate balancing act facing regional leaders.
For Saudi Arabia, the stakes are high. The government is under pressure to deliver on its commitments for major global events, including the 2027 Asian Cup, World Expo 2030, and the 2034 Asian Games and soccer World Cup. Hosting these events requires the completion of 15 stadiums—11 of which must be built from scratch. Some projects, like Trojena, have already experienced delays, with officials reportedly considering postponing the 2029 Asian Winter Games until 2033. John Pagano, CEO of luxury resort developer Red Sea Global (RSG), told Reuters that changes are being introduced to help secure delivery timelines, adding, “The country and the PIF are making sure we don't fail to meet those commitments.”
Despite the challenges, there are signs of progress. The Saudi Finance Ministry maintains that “all priority projects remain on track and the economy continues to diversify powered by strong non-oil growth through the private sector, with a strong and disciplined fiscal position.” Fitch Ratings, however, points to the kingdom’s budget deficit and the likelihood of several years of red ink ahead. Edward Bell, chief economist at Dubai’s Emirates NBD, credits the government with being “transparent and realistic about its needs,” but warns that compressing so many massive projects into a short time frame is fraught with risk.
Meanwhile, the days when Saudi Arabia was shunned by Western governments appear to be firmly in the past. After taking power in a palace coup in 2017, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman faced international censure for cracking down on dissent and for the Khashoggi killing. But as Reuters notes, many investors are now happy to visit and open to deploying funds, even if some remain wary about the kingdom’s ability to deliver on its promises.
For Trump, whose taste for extravagant projects aligns with the kingdom’s own ambitions, the FII conference and the upcoming state visit represent an opportunity to further cement U.S.-Saudi ties. During his visit to Riyadh in May, the kingdom committed to investing $600 billion in the United States. Yet, as Alice Gower of London-based Azure Strategy told Reuters, “Trump's larger-than-life style and the kingdom's love of big, attention-grabbing announcements make a good match. But the follow-through on headline pledges is likely to be slow at a time when Riyadh is under pressure to deliver huge projects in time to host global events.”
As the investment conference unfolds and the world watches the diplomatic choreography between Washington and Riyadh, the question remains: Can Saudi Arabia turn dazzling promises into tangible progress before the next global deadline arrives?