Last week, a move that few saw coming sent ripples across the geopolitical landscape: Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement, formalizing a decades-old security relationship that had, until now, existed only in the shadows. The agreement, announced during Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif’s state visit to Riyadh, marks a dramatic upgrade in the two nations’ longstanding partnership, with the treaty stating that “any aggression against either country shall be considered aggression against both.”
On paper, it reads like a standard mutual defense pact between close allies. But as reported by several outlets, including Reuters and Business Today, the implications of this agreement stretch far beyond the Arabian Peninsula and South Asia. It has raised pointed questions about nuclear guarantees, regional rivalries, and the shifting sands of great power politics in a region already beset by volatility.
The military relationship between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia is no overnight affair. Since the 1960s, Pakistani troops have guarded Islam’s holiest sites in Mecca and Medina, trained Saudi pilots, and even protected royal palaces. In return, Saudi Arabia has propped up Pakistan’s economy during times of crisis and, according to many analysts, helped bankroll Pakistan’s nuclear program when Western sanctions bit hard. Yet, for all this closeness, there was never a formal treaty—until now.
The timing, as several experts have noted, is telling. Since Operation Sindoor in May 2025, Pakistan has walked a diplomatic tightrope, maintaining cordial ties with China, the United States, and even Russia. The new agreement with Saudi Arabia elevates Pakistan’s role from a regional player to a key part of the West Asian security architecture, bringing not just prestige but also much-needed Saudi financial support to an economy under strain.
For Pakistan’s leaders, the pact feeds into a powerful national narrative: that the country is not just another state in South Asia but the guardian of Islam’s sacred heartland. “What we have, and the capabilities we possess, will be made available according to this agreement,” Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif said, as quoted by Reuters. He later clarified that a nuclear umbrella was “not on the radar,” but the ambiguity has only fueled speculation about the true extent of Pakistan’s commitment.
Saudi Arabia’s motivations are equally complex. For decades, Riyadh relied on American military might to shield it from regional threats. But with Washington’s gaze now fixed on Ukraine and the Asia-Pacific, and after a string of unsettling events—such as Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, Syria, Iran, and Qatar, and Houthi drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure—the kingdom’s confidence in U.S. guarantees has wavered. The failure to secure a formal Saudi-U.S. defense pact, despite high-level visits and massive arms deals, only deepened Riyadh’s unease.
By signing with Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state, Saudi Arabia has gained not just a powerful ally but, potentially, a nuclear deterrent—at least in theory. As Business Today explains, “the recent Saudi Arabia-Pakistan 2025 defence pact has given Riyadh access to Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent and trained forces, boosting its regional influence.” While it’s unlikely that Islamabad would ever risk its own survival by launching nuclear weapons on Riyadh’s behalf, the mere uncertainty muddies the waters for adversaries and raises the cost of aggression.
Analysts, however, remain skeptical. Would Pakistan really intervene militarily, let alone with nuclear force, if Saudi Arabia were attacked? Most see the pact as a form of symbolic deterrence—a way to keep adversaries guessing and buy both countries some breathing space. “Its power lies in its ambiguity,” noted a director at Jamia Millia Islamia, as cited by Business Today. “It is not an ironclad guarantee of Pakistani intervention, but it muddies the waters enough to buy both countries some breathing space.”
Yet, the risks are real. The agreement could drag Pakistan into regional conflicts that have little to do with its direct interests, including feuds with Iran or even confrontations with Israel. Already, there are hints that other Gulf monarchies are exploring similar deals with Islamabad, which could mean more money and influence—but also greater entanglement in Middle Eastern power struggles at a time when Pakistan’s domestic stability is far from assured.
For India, the pact is a strategic headache. Not only does it complicate India’s western frontier, but it also injects Riyadh into every confrontation with Islamabad. Indian officials have responded with studied calm, stating they will “study its implications,” but behind closed doors, there’s little doubt that New Delhi is unsettled. The explicit link between Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent and Saudi security is a new and unwelcome wrinkle in the region’s already tangled security equation.
Indian defense planners are now bracing for a more technologically advanced and short-notice conflict scenario, as highlighted by InCred Equities. The possibility that Pakistan could, in an extreme scenario, obtain Saudi defense equipment—such as AWACS (E-3) aircraft or advanced fighters—means India must maintain technological superiority in air, missile, and surveillance systems. InCred forecasts significant defense acquisitions by India, including 114 Rafales, fifth-generation Su-57 fighters, hypersonic missiles, and advanced unmanned aerial systems. The focus, they say, will be on rapid neutralization of Pakistan’s aerial infrastructure within the first 24–48 hours of any conflict.
There’s also an economic angle. The pact is expected to reduce the risk premium for crude oil prices, as Pakistani troops could help secure the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait against Houthi interference, keeping vital shipping lanes open. This, in turn, could benefit global markets and, ironically, Indian defense firms, which stand to gain from increased government spending on modernization and preparedness.
The big powers are watching closely. The United States, so far, has not objected and may even quietly approve. As Business Today points out, “if Pakistan helps reassure Riyadh, the Saudis will be less tempted to chase their own bomb or lean too heavily on Russia or China.” China, meanwhile, is hedging its bets. While Beijing is Pakistan’s closest ally and is building strong ties with Riyadh, it also brokered the 2023 thaw between Saudi Arabia and Iran. A pact that appears hostile to Tehran could undermine China’s efforts to reduce regional tensions.
For Saudi Arabia, the agreement is a form of strategic insurance—a hedge against unreliable U.S. policy and a signal to Washington that Riyadh has other options. As InCred notes, “Saudi Arabia may seek strategic insurance via Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella while exploring Chinese support as a hedge against unpredictable American decisions.”
In the end, the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact is more than just a bilateral agreement. It marks a precedent in extended deterrence arrangements outside traditional Western alliances, blurring the boundaries between South Asia and the Middle East. As alliances shift and new pacts are forged, the region’s security architecture grows ever more complex, leaving old certainties behind. For now, both Islamabad and Riyadh have bought themselves time and options—but at the cost of greater uncertainty for everyone else.