In a move that has sent shockwaves through the Middle East and beyond, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement, marking a new chapter in the region’s complex security dynamics. The pact, signed in mid-September 2025 and publicly reported on September 20, is being described by many analysts as a NATO-like arrangement, with the central theme that "any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both," according to the joint statement released after the deal (as reported by Firstpost).
The agreement is particularly notable because it potentially links Saudi Arabia—a nation long reliant on U.S. security guarantees—to Pakistan’s powerful, nuclear-armed military. While Pakistani officials have been adamant that the deal is a conventional defense partnership with "no intention of using this pact for any aggression," as Pakistan’s defense minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif told Reuters, Saudi officials have hinted at deeper significance. This has fueled widespread speculation that Riyadh is quietly seeking to fall under Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella, even if not officially acquiring nuclear weapons.
The timing of the pact is no coincidence. The region has been roiled by Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Gaza since October 2023, which has fundamentally altered security calculations across the Arab world. The situation escalated further when Israel launched a missile strike on Doha, the capital of Qatar, in an attempt to target Hamas leaders. The attack was widely condemned by Arab states, with Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry issuing a strongly worded statement calling it a "blatant violation of the sovereignty of the State of Qatar" and pledging "full solidarity and support for Qatar, and placing all its capabilities at its disposal to assist in any measures it may take" (Firstpost).
The sense of vulnerability among Gulf states has only deepened as these events have exposed the limitations of traditional security architectures. Despite hosting the largest U.S. military base in the region, Qatar suffered both an Iranian missile strike and an Israeli attack in quick succession, raising uncomfortable questions about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees. As Anil Trigunayat, former Indian ambassador to Jordan, Libya, and Malta, told Firstpost, "Dependence on hundreds of billions of dollars of sophisticated and advanced weapons systems and equipment bought by rich Gulf countries from the US has a red line that these will not be used against Israel."
For Saudi Arabia, the defense pact with Pakistan is as much about diversifying its strategic partnerships as it is about addressing immediate security concerns. Jamal Al Harbi, the media attaché at the Saudi embassy in Islamabad, wrote in Arab News Pakistan, "For Saudi Arabia, the deal reflects its determination to diversify its strategic partnerships. While historically aligned with Western powers, Riyadh has, in recent years, sought greater autonomy in shaping its security policy. Pakistan, with its sizable military, nuclear capabilities, and geostrategic position, emerges as a natural partner."
Pakistan, for its part, views the agreement through both an economic and strategic lens. Facing severe financial strain, Islamabad stands to gain much-needed economic assistance from Riyadh. The partnership is also seen as a strategic move to counterbalance regional rivals like Israel and India. As noted by Reuters, Pakistan has a long history of stationing troops in Saudi Arabia, and Riyadh has provided financial support to Islamabad since the 1960s. This latest pact, however, carries higher stakes, potentially pulling Pakistan into Gulf rivalries that could pit it against Iran and Israel.
The nuclear aspect of the agreement remains shrouded in ambiguity. While Pakistani officials have publicly insisted that "nuclear weapons are not on the radar" of the pact, as Khawaja Mohammad Asif told Reuters, others close to the Saudi royal court have been less circumspect. The Financial Times quoted Ali Shihabi, a commentator with ties to the Saudi leadership, as saying that "the deal puts Saudis under [Pakistan’s] nuclear umbrella in case of an attack." This calculated ambiguity appears to serve both sides, raising doubts in the minds of adversaries while providing Saudi Arabia with a strategic hedge.
Perhaps the most curious aspect of the entire affair is the conspicuous silence from the United States. Traditionally, any hint of nuclear proliferation in the region—especially involving a U.S. ally—would provoke a swift and stern response from Washington. Yet, as Firstpost points out, "the complete absence of any official American response to such a significant nuclear proliferation, involving its treaty ally and a ‘major non-NATO’ ally, stands in stark contrast with typical American reactions." Some analysts, including Ayesha Siddiqa writing in The Print, have suggested that this silence amounts to tacit approval, or what she calls "kosher proliferation."
Why would Washington look the other way? There are competing theories. One holds that the U.S. may be signaling its willingness to challenge Israel’s regional dominance, especially if Israeli actions are seen as destabilizing. Another explanation is that the pact serves as an anti-Iranian strategy, creating a Sunni nuclear-backed alliance that could force Tehran to recalculate its approach to regional conflicts. Despite heavy military strikes by Israel and the U.S., Iran’s nuclear program remains a concern, and its proxy forces in Yemen and Lebanon continue to exert influence.
The agreement has not gone unnoticed by other regional players. For Israel, the prospect of Saudi Arabia gaining access to a nuclear deterrent—even indirectly—undermines its longstanding strategic superiority as the region’s only nuclear-armed state. Iran, meanwhile, views the pact as an encirclement strategy by Riyadh, potentially fueling a dangerous nuclear arms race. India, too, has reason to be wary, as the deal could bolster Pakistan’s military capabilities, even though India’s defense spending far outpaces Pakistan’s.
From a broader perspective, the pact symbolizes a significant shift in Gulf security dynamics. After decades of U.S. dominance following World War II, Saudi Arabia is now actively seeking new alliances beyond the West. This realignment is driven by both a desire for greater autonomy and a response to the perceived unreliability of American security guarantees, especially after the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais, which temporarily halved Saudi oil production and exposed vulnerabilities in the kingdom’s defenses (Reuters).
Yet, the risks are real. Pakistan’s deepening involvement in Gulf rivalries could entangle it in conflicts with Iran or even Israel, while also creating new strategic fault lines—potentially pitting a Pak-Saudi bloc against Iran, India, and their allies. For now, both Riyadh and Islamabad appear to be betting that the benefits outweigh the risks, at least in the short term. As Jamal Al Harbi wrote, "If effectively implemented, the agreement could redefine the security landscape of the Middle East and South Asia, offering both nations greater stability while reshaping the regional balance of power."
The Saudi-Pakistan defense pact stands as a testament to a region in flux, where old alliances are being tested and new ones forged in the crucible of shifting power dynamics. Only time will tell whether this bold gambit brings the stability its architects hope for, or merely adds fuel to an already volatile mix.