The world is teetering on the edge of a new nuclear era, with fresh anxieties gripping policymakers and the public alike. The international arms control regime, once a cornerstone of global security, is now fraying at the edges, as existing treaties become outdated, expire, or remain unratified. According to reporting from multiple outlets, this decay has left a dangerous vacuum, prompting countries like Japan and Saudi Arabia to seriously consider acquiring their own nuclear arsenals.
In the Middle East, the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia is as fierce as ever, fueled by competing religious ideologies and a long history of proxy conflicts. Iran, described by the Centre for International and Strategic Studies as possessing "the largest and most diverse" missile arsenal in the region, continues to pursue a nuclear program despite international pressure and direct military strikes on its facilities. Its ballistic missiles, such as the Shahab-3 and Sejjil, have ranges that threaten not only the Middle East but parts of Europe as well. The Iranian regime, led by Ayatollah Khamenei, has made its intentions clear through statements like, "there is only one solution to the Middle East problem, namely the annihilation and destruction of the Zionist state."
Iran's nuclear ambitions have long been a source of international concern. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was supposed to cap Iran's enrichment activities, but the deal fell apart in 2018 when the United States, under President Donald Trump, withdrew its support. Since then, Iran has resumed its enrichment program, and the JCPOA expired in October 2025, leaving no tangible framework in place to curb Tehran's nuclear pursuits. The recent American bombing campaign, Operation Midnight Hammer, temporarily disrupted Iran's hedging strategy—whereby it leveraged ambiguity over its nuclear intentions to extract concessions from the West. Now, with its survival at stake amid mounting domestic and foreign threats, Iran appears more determined than ever to develop a nuclear deterrent.
For Saudi Arabia, Iran’s nuclear trajectory is a matter of existential concern. The Kingdom, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), has made no secret of its willingness to pursue nuclear weapons if Iran crosses the threshold. As MBS has previously stated, if Iran acquires a bomb, "the Saudis would have to get one too." This sentiment is not new; Saudi involvement in nuclear activities dates back to at least the 1970s, when it reportedly helped finance Pakistan's nuclear program. The relationship between Riyadh and Islamabad remains close, with recent reports highlighting the possibility that Saudi Arabia could purchase missiles mated with nuclear warheads from Pakistan, such as the Shaheen-III.
Amid these regional tensions, the United States remains a key player. In December 2025, Washington approved $1.4 billion in military sales to Saudi Arabia, including $500 million for training the Royal Saudi Land Forces. This was the first American foreign military sales package to the Kingdom since it was designated a Major Non-NATO Ally during MBS’s landmark White House visit in late November. That visit also yielded Trump’s authorization to sell F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia and a Strategic Defense Agreement to facilitate more military sales, technology transfers, and joint training programs. Yet, as analysts note, the US-Saudi relationship has grown increasingly transactional, with Washington unwilling to increase its military footprint in the region despite a $142 billion agreement announced in May 2025.
Saudi Arabia’s defense posture is evolving rapidly. While the Kingdom remains one of the world's largest defense spenders—devoting 75% of its 2024 budget to foreign equipment—it has set an ambitious goal as part of its Vision 2030: to localize 50% of military spending. Last month, officials announced they had achieved the 25% mark. Still, the Saudi military has historically relied on external support for its security needs, prompting Riyadh to seek mutual defense arrangements with Washington and, more recently, to diversify its partnerships. Saudi Arabia has deepened defense ties with China, participating in joint exercises like Blue Sword since 2019, and has increased military cooperation with Pakistan, formalizing a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement focused on training and capacity building.
China’s role in the region is growing. In 2024, it became Saudi Arabia’s largest import source, with $56 billion in trade compared to $19 billion with the US. China is also the leading investor in several Vision 2030 projects. While Beijing is unlikely to supplant Washington as Riyadh’s primary security guarantor in the near term, the deepening partnership has raised eyebrows in Washington—especially as the US considers the sensitive issue of transferring advanced weapons like the F-35 to Saudi Arabia. Israel, for its part, remains opposed to such sales, fearing for its qualitative military edge.
Meanwhile, the United States and Saudi Arabia recently signed a civilian nuclear energy deal, known as a 123 agreement, which paves the way for US exports of nuclear reactors, fuel, and technology to the Kingdom. The agreement stipulates that Riyadh must adhere to "strong non-proliferation standards," but the Saudis insist on their right to enrich uranium—a point of contention with Washington, which views enrichment as a red line. The deployment of US microreactor nuclear power plants in Saudi Arabia is not expected before 2028, but the infrastructure and know-how could soon give Riyadh a breakout capability if it chooses to pursue a nuclear weapon.
Globally, the nuclear threat is not confined to the Middle East. In East Asia, Japan is grappling with a rapidly deteriorating security environment. China and North Korea are expanding their nuclear arsenals, with China now boasting 600 warheads and aiming for 1,500 by 2035, according to the Pentagon. North Korea continues to test missiles and threaten its neighbors. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has signaled a willingness to reconsider Japan’s long-standing non-nuclear principles, stating that "the United States may need to bring nuclear weapons into Japan to deter rivals." While public opinion in Japan is divided, the infrastructure and technical expertise to develop nuclear weapons are already in place—what’s missing is the political will.
Other countries, such as South Korea, Poland, and Turkey, are also reassessing their security needs. South Korean public opinion is increasingly supportive of an independent nuclear deterrent, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has called for stronger defense capabilities, including deeper cooperation with nuclear-armed allies. Turkey, meanwhile, has hinted at pursuing its own bomb if Iran does so, though for now, US tactical nuclear weapons stationed in the country provide a measure of security.
As the global security environment grows more perilous, the specter of nuclear proliferation looms large. The world’s nine nuclear states—United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—may soon be joined by new members, unless international efforts to reinforce arms control and rebuild trust can stem the tide.
The choices made by leaders in Riyadh, Tehran, Tokyo, and beyond in the coming months and years will shape the future of global security, for better or worse.
