On September 29, 2025, the international landscape shifted once again as the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control announced an eight-day postponement of sanctions on Serbia’s Russian-owned NIS oil company. Originally set to take effect on October 1, the sanctions were part of a broader campaign launched on January 10 against Russia’s oil sector, aiming to curb Moscow’s influence and economic reach in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine. But this delay is just one piece of a much larger puzzle—one that stretches from the Balkans to the heart of Latin America, revealing how global sanctions are redrawing alliances and economic dependencies far from the frontlines of the conflict.
According to Reuters, the US granted this latest extension after Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic signaled that his country might have “something to offer” in resolving the situation. Speaking to the Tanjug news agency, Vucic said, “They (the US) wanted to show respect and to tell us they understand Serbia’s position.” He added, “Whether that will be enough, and whether it would be what Americans want, we will see.” The statement underscores the delicate balancing act Serbia faces, caught between its historical ties to Russia and mounting Western pressure.
The NIS oil company, which operates Serbia’s sole refinery in Pancevo, is majority-owned by Russian energy giants: Gazprom Neft holds a 44.9% stake, Gazprom 11.3%, while the Serbian government retains 29.9%. The Pancevo refinery is no small operation. With an annual capacity of 4.8 million tonnes, it covers most of Serbia’s energy needs. If sanctions are fully implemented, crude supply via Croatia’s Janaf pipeline could be disrupted, potentially sending shockwaves through Serbia’s economy and the region’s energy markets. The Croatian pipeline operator Jadranski Naftovod (JANAF) has already warned that it would lose a significant portion of its revenue if the sanctions go into effect.
Efforts to sidestep sanctions have been ongoing for months. Earlier this year, Gazprom Neft transferred a 5.15% stake in NIS to Gazprom, apparently in a bid to dilute direct Russian control and avoid punitive measures. Despite this maneuver, NIS remained on the sanctions list due to its Russian majority ownership. The full implementation of sanctions has now been postponed six times in 2025 alone, thanks to special licenses from the US Department of the Treasury, as reported by European Western Balkans. For its part, NIS has affirmed that it has adequate reserves of crude oil and petroleum products, and is “continuing to cooperate with the US Department of the Treasury on the request to be removed from the sanctions list and to extend the licence.”
But Serbia is hardly the only country grappling with the fallout from sanctions targeting Russia. Thousands of miles away, in Latin America, the repercussions are even more profound. The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service recently reported that international sanctions have significantly reduced Russia’s geopolitical influence across the region. The so-called ‘Primakov Doctrine’—Moscow’s strategy to deepen cooperation with Latin American countries—has been reduced, in the words of Ukrainian officials, to “mainly symbolic diplomatic steps.”
Russia’s traditional partners in Latin America—Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela—still maintain close ties, owing largely to their shared history with the former Soviet Union. Yet, even these relationships are feeling the strain. The sanctions have led to a marked decrease in military-technical cooperation, with Russia no longer able to supply Soviet-era weapons to Latin America. The reason? The depletion of its stockpiles during the ongoing war in Ukraine. As a result, several Latin American countries are now considering modernizing or completely replacing their outdated military systems in cooperation with the United States.
This shift is opening the door for other global players to expand their influence. According to the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service, both Iran and China have stepped up their activities in Latin America. Iran is increasing the volume of arms supplies, while China is broadening its scientific-military cooperation and strengthening strategic ties with countries in the region. The implications are far-reaching. As Russia’s presence wanes, Iran and China are poised to fill the void, potentially reshaping the balance of power not just in Latin America, but on the global stage.
For Russia, these developments mark a stark reversal of fortune. The Kremlin’s ambitions to project power and build alliances in Latin America have been undermined by the very sanctions designed to punish its aggression in Ukraine. The loss of military-technical cooperation is particularly significant. For decades, Russian (and previously Soviet) weaponry formed the backbone of many Latin American armed forces. Now, as those systems age and spare parts become scarce, the region’s militaries are looking elsewhere—often to the United States—for upgrades and replacements.
Meanwhile, the US finds itself in a complex position. While sanctions are intended to isolate Russia and pressure it to change course in Ukraine, they also risk creating unintended consequences. In Serbia, for example, the threatened disruption of oil supplies could destabilize the country’s economy and strain relations with both Russia and the European Union. The US has responded with a mix of firmness and flexibility, granting repeated extensions to the NIS sanctions while keeping up the pressure for divestment and reform.
Serbia’s unique situation highlights the challenges of implementing sanctions in a globalized world. The country’s deep energy ties to Russia are not easily severed, and its leaders are acutely aware of the risks involved in alienating either Moscow or Washington. President Vucic’s remarks suggest a willingness to negotiate, but also a recognition of Serbia’s limited leverage. “Whether that will be enough, and whether it would be what Americans want, we will see,” he said, capturing the uncertainty that hangs over the entire affair.
Back in Latin America, the shifting alliances are just as fraught. As Iran and China move in to replace Russia, local governments must weigh the benefits of new partnerships against the risks of becoming entangled in larger geopolitical rivalries. For the US, this is both an opportunity and a challenge. By offering military modernization and economic cooperation, Washington can strengthen its ties with Latin American countries and counter the influence of its rivals. But success is far from guaranteed, and the region’s leaders are likely to play all sides to their advantage.
What’s clear is that the sanctions regime imposed in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is having ripple effects far beyond Europe. From the oil refineries of Serbia to the military barracks of Caracas and Havana, countries are being forced to adapt to a new reality—one in which old alliances are tested and new ones are forged. As the world watches to see how these dramas unfold, one thing is certain: the geopolitical chessboard is being reset, and no player can afford to ignore the changing rules.
The evolving situation in both Serbia and Latin America underscores just how interconnected the global order has become. As sanctions bite and alliances shift, the choices made in Washington, Moscow, or Beijing will reverberate from the Balkans to the Americas and beyond.