Ryanair Fares Set To Climb Amid Profit Drop

Ryanair, Europe’s largest budget airline, has announced it will raise fares by up to 9% in 2026, exceeding earlier forecasts, as it braces for a surge in passenger numbers and wrestles with regulatory penalties and operational headwinds. The company’s quarterly results, released on January 26, 2026, paint a complex picture: robust demand and revenue growth, but a dramatic plunge in profits after a hefty fine from Italian authorities and ongoing challenges in the aviation sector.

According to BBC, Ryanair’s pre-tax profits for the three months ending December 2025 nosedived by 83%, dropping to €24.4 million from €143.7 million in the same period the previous year. This sharp decline was primarily attributed to a €256 million fine imposed by Italy’s Competition Authority. Despite the profit setback, total revenue climbed 9% to €3.21 billion, buoyed by a 6% increase in passenger numbers to 47.5 million over the quarter.

The Italian Competition Authority’s penalty, issued in December 2025, accused Ryanair of “abusing its dominant position” by restricting travel agencies’ access to its services. The regulator stated that Ryanair had “put in place an elaborate strategy” that made it more difficult for both online and traditional agencies to purchase flights—especially when combined with services from other airlines or bundled with tourism and insurance products. The authority argued this approach either blocked or hindered purchases, or rendered them “economically or technically burdensome.”

Ryanair has staunchly rejected the accusations, calling the fine “baseless” and expressing confidence it will be overturned on appeal. The airline maintains that selling flights directly to consumers is a competitive model that keeps fares lower, ultimately benefiting travelers. “We are confident the fine will be overturned on appeal,” a Ryanair spokesperson told NationalWorld.

Despite the regulatory turbulence, Ryanair remains optimistic about its growth trajectory. The airline now expects passenger numbers to increase by 4% to almost 208 million in 2026, up from previous estimates. This bullish outlook is supported by strong bookings during the October half-term, Christmas, and New Year holidays. As a result, Ryanair has revised its fare outlook upward, projecting average fare increases of 8-9% this year—exceeding the 7% rise forecasted in November 2025. Average fares for the last quarter rose 4% to €44 (£38), according to the company’s results.

CEO Michael O’Leary, never one to shy away from controversy, has also warned travelers to brace for possible flight delays during the upcoming summer season. Speaking to The Independent, O’Leary predicted, “We think this summer will be another mess with air traffic control. It’s good at the moment because we’re in the middle of the winter season. The French will start striking around May or June. And then air traffic controllers will start not showing up to work on Saturdays and Sundays during the summer schedule, and we’ll have all these ‘mythical’ ATC capacity restrictions.”

O’Leary was quick to point out that these so-called restrictions are, in his view, not due to capacity but rather staff shortages among air traffic controllers. He called on the European Union to fine air traffic control providers who are not fully staffed for the critical first wave of morning flights, especially on weekends. “If you get the first wave of flights away, the rest of the day will operate pretty much on time,” he asserted.

Flight punctuality is not the only operational headache on O’Leary’s radar. He also linked flight delays to increased alcohol consumption by passengers in airports, suggesting that airports should impose a limit of two alcoholic drinks per person. “But if you are going to serve alcohol, there should be a limit of two alcoholic drinks per passenger or per boarding pass. We operate pretty much the same on board our aircraft. It is very rare we would serve anybody more than one or two drinks on board. And where people are misbehaving, we don’t serve them alcohol at all,” O’Leary told The Independent.

The airline’s public profile received an unexpected boost recently thanks to a high-profile spat between O’Leary and tech billionaire Elon Musk. After O’Leary rejected the use of Musk’s Starlink technology for in-flight Wi-Fi, the resulting online back-and-forth led to a slight uptick in Ryanair bookings. The company even thanked Musk for the free publicity, according to BBC.

Looking further ahead, Ryanair’s ambitions remain sky-high. The airline aims to grow passenger numbers to 300 million by 2034—a target that would cement its position as a global aviation powerhouse. Central to this expansion is a $40 billion contract with Boeing for 300 new 737-MAX 10 aircraft, with the first 15 set for delivery in spring 2027. The MAX-10s are 21% more fuel efficient and offer 21% more seats than Ryanair’s current 737 Next Generation fleet, a move that is expected to support both environmental goals and increased capacity.

However, the company’s financial outlook is not without risks. O’Leary has cautioned that full-year net profit could reach as much as €2.23 billion, but this projection is “exposed to adverse external developments,” including the potential for conflict escalation in Ukraine and the Middle East. Geopolitical uncertainty and operational disruptions remain significant variables that could impact Ryanair’s bottom line.

Industry observers note that Ryanair’s strategy of direct sales, cost discipline, and aggressive expansion has allowed it to weather turbulence that has grounded or slowed many competitors. Yet, the Italian fine and ongoing regulatory scrutiny highlight the challenges of maintaining dominance in a tightly regulated market. At the same time, O’Leary’s outspoken leadership and willingness to challenge both industry norms and external critics continue to keep Ryanair in the headlines—for better or worse.

The coming months will test Ryanair’s ability to balance customer demand, fare increases, regulatory battles, and operational challenges. For travelers, the message is clear: expect higher prices, possible summer delays, and a no-nonsense approach to unruly behavior. For the airline industry, Ryanair’s latest moves underscore the shifting dynamics of post-pandemic travel, where demand is surging but old and new obstacles remain firmly in play.

As Ryanair pushes forward with ambitious growth plans and faces the fallout of regulatory actions, all eyes will be on how Europe’s budget airline giant navigates the next phase of the aviation recovery—one marked by both opportunity and uncertainty.