In a rapidly shifting global energy landscape, Russia’s oil and refined product markets are facing mounting pressure from multiple fronts. As of mid-December 2025, a confluence of Ukrainian drone attacks, Western sanctions, and evolving geopolitical negotiations has sent ripples through oil prices, trade patterns, and refinery operations. According to state news agency TASS, Russian officials are considering extending the current ban on gasoline exports—first imposed in response to domestic fuel shortages—through the end of February 2026, stretching beyond the original expiry date of December 31, 2025. This proposed extension, reported by sources familiar with government discussions, reflects the ongoing volatility in Russia’s energy sector.
The ban, which applies to all market participants including producers and traders (though not to supplies under bilateral government agreements), was initially extended in September 2025 after a summer of intensified Ukrainian drone attacks. These strikes targeted some of Russia’s largest refineries and other key energy infrastructure, with at least ten refineries reportedly hit in August and September alone. The impact was immediate and severe: refining processing rates plunged by up to one fifth on certain days, and some refineries were forced to temporarily halt crude intake altogether. While there wasn’t a widespread run on petrol stations, some popular gasoline grades became scarce in parts of the country, underscoring the fragility of Russia’s domestic fuel supply.
Alongside the gasoline export ban, Russia has maintained a partial restriction on diesel exports, specifically prohibiting non-producers from exporting the fuel until the end of 2025. However, according to daily Kommersant (as cited by Oilprice.com), this restriction could be lifted as early as January 2026. The government’s balancing act—protecting domestic supply while maintaining export revenues—has grown more precarious as attacks and market headwinds persist.
Ukrainian drone operations have not only disrupted refinery output but also crippled fuel exports from Russia’s Black Sea terminals. In November 2025, the oil ports of Tuapse and Novorossiysk came under renewed attack, sharply reducing shipments from these key gateways. Reuters estimates showed that Russia’s overall shipments of refined petroleum products dipped by 0.8% in November compared to the previous month. However, this decline was partially offset by increased shipments from Baltic Sea terminals—a testament to the adaptability of Russia’s export logistics, but also to the persistent risks facing Black Sea infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the international oil market has responded with marked volatility. On December 15, 2025, renewed optimism over a possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire—bolstered by talks in Berlin and comments from President Trump—helped push ICE Brent crude prices down by 0.9%, settling at $60.56 per barrel, the lowest close since May. According to ING commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson, “territory remains a big sticking point” in ceasefire negotiations, but markets are watching developments closely given the significant supply risks posed by ongoing sanctions and conflict.
Despite the resilience of Russian seaborne oil exports since the imposition of sanctions on major firms like Rosneft and LukOil, finding willing buyers has become increasingly challenging. As reported by FXStreet, “Russian oil faces buyer shortfall despite exports holding up.” India, which had emerged as a critical buyer of Russian crude since the onset of the Ukraine war, is expected to slash its imports to around 800,000 barrels per day in December 2025—down dramatically from 1.9 million barrels per day in November. This steep drop signals a growing reluctance among major importers to navigate the political and logistical complexities of trading in sanctioned Russian oil.
Refinery margins have also been on a rollercoaster ride. In November 2025, concerns over the impact of sanctions on refined product flows, combined with persistent Ukrainian drone attacks and some scheduled refinery outages, drove margins sharply higher. The ICE gasOil crack—a key indicator of profitability for refining middle distillates—surged to $38 per barrel in November, fueled by heavy speculative buying. However, as the month wound down, speculators began to unwind these positions. By mid-December, the crack had fallen back to around $23 per barrel. As of December 9, speculators held a net long of 58,578 lots in ICE gasOil, down significantly from a peak of 102,195 lots on November 25.
The interplay between physical disruptions and financial market sentiment has underscored the complexity of the current oil landscape. ING’s analysts note that “the continued weakness in the refined products market may be adding to the broader pressure on oil markets over the last week or so.” With refinery outages, maintenance, and speculative trading all contributing to volatility, stakeholders across the value chain are bracing for further turbulence.
Amid these market gyrations, the specter of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire looms large. President Trump’s assertion that “an agreement to end the war in Ukraine is closer than ever, after talks in Berlin” has injected a measure of hope into the markets, though the issue of territorial control remains unresolved. Should a ceasefire materialize, the implications for energy flows, sanctions compliance, and regional stability could be profound. For now, however, the uncertainty continues to weigh on both prices and policy decisions.
For Russian policymakers, the decision to extend the gasoline export ban reflects both immediate operational concerns and broader strategic calculations. Protecting the domestic market from shortages remains a priority, especially in the wake of repeated infrastructure attacks. Yet, with export revenues under strain and traditional buyers like India pulling back, the path forward is anything but clear-cut.
As the world watches for signs of diplomatic progress and further market shifts, Russia’s energy sector finds itself at a crossroads. The coming months will likely test the resilience of its infrastructure, the flexibility of its export strategies, and the resolve of its trading partners. In a market where geopolitics, military action, and financial speculation are inextricably linked, even small developments can have outsized impacts.
For now, the only certainty is uncertainty itself. As negotiations continue and new risks emerge, Russia’s oil and refined product markets remain on edge—caught between the hope of peace and the harsh realities of a conflict that has reshaped global energy dynamics.
