In a stark escalation of tensions between Russia and Poland, recent weeks have seen a barrage of hostile rhetoric, cyberattacks, and real-world disruptions that underscore the fragile security landscape on NATO’s eastern flank. With Russia’s war in Ukraine grinding on and Moscow’s threats growing ever more explicit, Poland finds itself at the crossroads of regional security concerns, hybrid warfare, and the broader contest between Western democracies and the Kremlin’s ambitions.
On January 15, 2026, Sergey Karaganov, a prominent adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin and an influential voice on international affairs, made headlines with a chilling warning on The Tucker Carlson Show. Karaganov suggested that if Russia were to begin losing the war in Ukraine within the next year or two, it could resort to nuclear strikes against selected European countries. His list of potential targets included the United Kingdom, Germany, and the Polish city of Poznań. Karaganov justified his statement by referencing the significant American military presence in Poznań, asserting, “If we carried out a nuclear strike on Poznań, the Americans still would never respond.” According to this line of reasoning, Europe—rather than Ukraine—was painted as Russia’s true adversary, with European leaders accused of recklessness in confronting Moscow.
This belligerent stance was echoed just days later by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. On January 20, while summarizing Russian diplomatic activity in a press conference, Lavrov dismissed the principles of the Western world order as obsolete, declaring that “the law of the strongest now applies.” He further accused Western countries of using “the authorities in Kyiv to conduct an armed confrontation with Russia,” and insisted that, despite a softening in public rhetoric, the goal of inflicting a “strategic defeat” on Russia remained firmly embedded in the minds and plans of European leaders. As Lavrov made clear, Russia has no intention of changing its narrative or approach toward the West or Ukraine.
The drumbeat of hostile statements continued on January 28, when Dmitryi Peskov, spokesman for President Putin, criticized Poland and the Baltic states for their “hostility toward Russia and of demonizing it.” In an interview with the Russian News Agency TASS, Peskov claimed that Poland “for centuries has lacked friendly relations” with Russia, adding, “whoever comes to power there begins to hate Russia and Russians.” These comments, steeped in historical grievance, reflect the deep-seated animosity that now colors Moscow’s view of its western neighbors.
On the same day, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mariya Zakharova accused Polish President Karol Nawrocki of “distorting history and shifting responsibility for the outbreak of World War II onto the USSR” during commemorations of the 81st anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz. Just three days later, Zakharova demanded that Poland take action against Ukrainian national Volodymyr Zhuravlov, suspected of involvement in the Nord Stream gas pipeline explosions, and criticized Poland’s refusal to extradite him to Germany.
But Russia’s campaign against Poland is not limited to words. According to multiple sources cited by the Western Institute in Poznań, Russia spends between 2 and 4 billion dollars annually on cognitive operations targeting Poland—including propaganda, disinformation, cyber operations, espionage, and sabotage. The scale of these efforts is staggering. Poland now faces between 2,000 and 4,000 cyberattacks every day, with weekly incidents against government sectors rising from about 2,500 in October 2025 to around 3,100 by January 2026—significantly more than neighboring countries like the Czech Republic, Austria, or Germany. In December 2025, a coordinated cyberattack, likely orchestrated by the Russian hacker group Electrum, disrupted operations at roughly 30 Polish energy facilities, including district heating systems and renewable energy infrastructure. Despite Poland’s robust cyber defenses, these attacks serve as a stark warning of the vulnerabilities inherent in critical infrastructure.
The threat is not just digital. In the final months of 2025, Polish authorities detained more than 50 individuals suspected of planning acts of sabotage. Public anxiety is high: a recent survey found that 68% of Poles expect further Russian sabotage attempts, while a Eurobarometer study revealed that 71% of Polish respondents fear election results could be distorted by disinformation. The concern is echoed across the region, with similar fears prevalent in Hungary, Lithuania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Latvia, and Romania. To counter these threats, the European Union has launched initiatives such as the European Democracy Shield program, aimed at bolstering member states’ resilience against hybrid attacks.
These tensions erupted into practical consequences on February 7, 2026, when Ukraine’s Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Kyiv had requested emergency assistance from Poland after a “massive attack” by Russian forces on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The attack targeted the Burshtynska and Dobrotvirska power plants in western Ukraine, resulting in widespread power outages as reported by the state grid operator Ukrenergo. “Due to the damage caused by the enemy, emergency outages have been applied in most regions,” Ukrenergo stated, adding that restoration work would begin as soon as the security situation allowed.
The fallout from the attack rippled across the border. Polish authorities temporarily suspended flight operations at the Rzeszow and Lublin airports—both near Ukraine—as a precaution to ensure the free operation of military aviation. Rzeszow, in particular, holds strategic significance as NATO’s main hub for arms supplies to Ukraine. The closures underscored the interconnectedness of regional security and the real-world impact of hostilities spilling over from Ukraine’s embattled territory.
Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to resolve the broader conflict remain fraught. Ukraine and Russia have held two rounds of US-mediated negotiations in Abu Dhabi since January 2026, reaching agreement on a major prisoner swap but making no progress on the thorny issue of territory. Tensions were further inflamed on February 6, when Moscow accused Ukraine of orchestrating the shooting of a top Russian military intelligence general in Moscow—a claim Kyiv has not addressed.
Amid all these developments, the specter of hybrid warfare looms large. As Martin Jäger, a senior German intelligence official, observed, the current “cold peace” between Russia and the European Union could at any moment “turn into a heated confrontation in which hybrid actions will transform into typically military operations.” He warned, “We cannot sit idly by and assume that a possible Russian attack will occur no earlier than 2029. We are already under fire today.”
For Poland and its neighbors, the message is clear: vigilance and resilience are more critical than ever in the face of evolving Russian threats—whether in the form of cyberattacks, propaganda, or the chilling possibility of escalation into outright conflict.