In a dramatic escalation of tensions along NATO’s eastern frontier, more than a dozen Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace on the night of September 9 to September 10, 2025, forcing Poland to shut down four airports and scramble its air defense systems. The incident, which Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk described as a “large-scale provocation,” marks the first time NATO forces have fired shots in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
NATO’s response was swift and coordinated. Polish F-16s and Dutch F-35 fighter jets were scrambled, German Patriot air defense systems were activated, and Italian surveillance aircraft joined the effort. Several drones were intercepted and shot down, though not all were neutralized. The complexity and depth of the incursion, as well as the number of drones involved—nineteen, many originating from Belarus—have led Western officials to view the event as a deliberate test of NATO’s resolve.
Prime Minister Tusk, addressing Poland’s parliament, invoked Article 4 of the NATO Treaty the following day, calling the situation “the closest we have been to open conflict since World War Two,” though he took care to add, “there is no reason to believe we’re on the brink of war.” This invocation triggered consultations among NATO allies, with Secretary-General Mark Rutte stating, “a full assessment of the incident is ongoing” and emphasizing that the alliance “will closely monitor the situation along our eastern flank, our air defences continually at the ready.” (The Conversation)
The Kremlin, for its part, accused the European Union and NATO of making unfounded allegations but stopped short of denying Russian involvement. Belarus, Russia’s close ally, claimed its own air defenses had shot down some of the drones after they entered Belarusian airspace, attributing the errant flight paths to electronic warfare disruptions. Major General Pavel Muraveiko of Belarus suggested the drones “lost their track as a result of the impact of the parties’ electronic warfare assets.”
Russia’s deputy Security Council chairman Dmitry Medvedev, a close Putin ally, escalated tensions further by warning Finland that any confrontation with Russia could lead to the “collapse of Finnish statehood—this time forever.” Medvedev referenced the historical Mannerheim Line and accused Finland of past war crimes against the Soviet Union—a claim widely dismissed by Western observers as baseless propaganda (The Daily Beast).
While Russia’s defense ministry claimed its drones could not reach Polish territory, photographic evidence of Iranian-designed Shahed drones in Polish farm fields and their flight paths have cast serious doubt on these assertions. According to CFR experts Liana Fix and Erin Dumbacher, “the amount of drones, as well as the deep incursion into Polish territory, make this a much more serious and likely deliberate provocation from the Russian side.”
This incursion comes at a time of heightened Russian military activity. Over the past months, Russia has maintained momentum in its campaign against Ukraine, leveraging advantages in manpower and military hardware. The night of the Polish incursion, Ukraine endured an intense air campaign with more than 380 drones and dozens of missiles targeting government buildings and energy infrastructure, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The attacks have grown deadlier, with increasing civilian casualties and renewed threats to Ukraine’s energy grid as another harsh winter approaches (The Conversation).
Diplomatically, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been emboldened by recent summits. On September 3, 2025, he attended a military parade in China alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, underscoring Moscow’s growing ties with both Beijing and Pyongyang. Putin’s confidence was also on display during the August summit in Alaska with U.S. President Donald Trump—a meeting that ended with no progress or ceasefire. Days later, Russia unleashed its largest missile and drone barrage of the entire conflict, further fueling Western skepticism about Moscow’s intentions (News Nation).
Western leaders have responded with a mix of condemnation and caution. The European Union’s foreign affairs chief, Kaja Kallas, promised to “raise the cost for Moscow further by ramping up sanctions significantly on Russia and its enablers.” Yet, as The Conversation notes, the EU is already on its 18th sanctions package, and the war continues unabated. Ursula von der Leyen’s annual state of the union address, delivered the morning after the drone incursion, reiterated EU aspirations for strategic autonomy in defense but offered little in the way of concrete action.
In the United States, President Trump’s response has been notably muted. On September 11, 2025, he posted on Truth Social, “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!”—a comment that expressed surprise but stopped short of concrete policy. Trump has not endorsed additional sanctions on Russia, even as bipartisan pressure mounts in the U.S. Senate. Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory in Moscow, told CNBC, “The Russian budget is actually under a lot of pressure… so if there were to be any more significant sanctions targeting Russian oil trade from the U.S.—which they’ve talked about but not done—that would put the budget under greater pressure. It hasn’t happened.”
For Poland, the incursion has sparked a renewed sense of urgency. The government has doubled its military spending and pledged to expand its armed forces to half a million troops. The incident, coming just days before the Russian-Belarusian joint military exercise Zapad, has heightened fears of further escalation along the Polish-Belarusian border. As CFR’s Fix and Dumbacher observe, “this encroachment is part of a Russian strategy to test the NATO alliance and especially the U.S. commitment to Article 5.”
Looking ahead, experts argue that NATO must invest in expanded sensor networks along its eastern flank and develop cost-effective air defense systems to counter low-cost drones. Scrambling fighter jets—at $50,000 per flight hour—to intercept drones costing as little as $35,000 each is not a sustainable strategy. The alliance is urged to learn from Ukraine’s experience and accelerate the deployment of both active and passive drone defense technologies. Diplomatically, a strong U.S. condemnation and unified NATO response are seen as essential to deterring future Russian provocations.
As the dust settles from this historic incursion, one thing is clear: the stakes for Europe’s security have rarely been higher. The test of NATO’s unity and resolve is no longer theoretical—it is playing out in real time, along the very borders where peace once seemed assured.