On Monday, September 15, 2025, a vast field in Belarus became the stage for a spectacle that’s left Europe jittery and world leaders watching every move. Russian and Belarusian troops, tanks, and fighter jets roared through the Borisov training ground, unleashing firepower in the Zapad-2025 military exercises. These drills—meaning “West” in Russian—were billed as a defensive response to a hypothetical NATO invasion, but the symbolism and timing have set off alarm bells across the continent.
According to BBC reporting, this was the first time since 2021 that Moscow and Minsk held such joint exercises. Back then, the world didn’t know that Russia would soon use Belarus as a launchpad for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The message this year was unmistakable: as the BBC’s Russia editor put it, “See and consider the firepower on your doorstep; confrontation with Moscow is not in your best interest.”
The drills were as dramatic as they were calculated. Fighter jets streaked overhead, tanks shattered mock wooden houses, and the buzz of drones filled the air. Troops stormed in, flags waving above a “liberated” patch of scorched earth. The show of force, witnessed by a rare contingent of Western journalists, was designed to grab attention—especially after Russian drones recently entered Polish and Romanian airspace, stoking fears that Moscow is probing NATO’s defenses.
Valery Revenko, a senior Belarusian military official, tried to reassure the world. “The exercises, in our view, are unprecedentedly open. We pose no threat to anyone and stand for building a constructive and pragmatic dialogue,” he told reporters after the drills, as reported by The Guardian. He added that the exercises had been intentionally scaled down and held further from NATO borders to reduce tensions in Eastern Europe. The drills were scheduled to end on Tuesday, September 16, 2025.
Despite these assurances, the backdrop was anything but relaxed. The exercises underscored a growing rift between Europe and Washington in how they approach the Kremlin. In a surprise move, two US military officials attended Monday’s war games—the first such American presence at a Russian military drill in years. Belarusian defense minister Viktor Khrenin greeted one of them, Bryan Shoupe, with a handshake and the promise, “The best viewing seats will be provided for you.” Shoupe replied, “Thank you for the invitation.” The US representatives, who declined to speak to The Guardian, stood out among military guests from Russia’s traditional allies, including China, Myanmar, and several authoritarian African states.
Their attendance, quickly highlighted by Russian and Belarusian state media, was interpreted by some as a sign that the drills carried global significance. Yet for European capitals, it only deepened anxieties—especially amid uncertainty over Washington’s willingness to confront Moscow. With the US presence, some in Europe fear that Donald Trump’s administration may be less inclined to take a hard line against Russia or further isolate President Vladimir Putin.
Poland, feeling the heat, reacted swiftly. It deployed up to 40,000 soldiers to its border with Belarus and indefinitely closed the crossing—a move that delivers a painful economic blow to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who relies on the route for the transit of Chinese and Russian goods. The closure provoked anger in Moscow. Poland’s foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, told The Guardian from Kyiv, “The Russian government has asked us publicly to reconsider. Well, we would like the Russian government to reconsider sending arsonists and drones into Poland.”
Other European allies have also stepped up, sending additional jets to patrol their skies against further Russian drone incursions. The sense of unease is palpable, especially given the memory of Zapad-2021, which involved up to 200,000 Russian personnel and is now seen as a rehearsal for the Ukraine invasion. In contrast, Zapad-2025 was much smaller—about 1,000 Russian troops and 7,000 Belarusian forces—reflecting Russia’s manpower shortages after years of grinding warfare in Ukraine. On Monday, only a handful of Russian soldiers were spotted on the training grounds.
Military analysts, like Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting in Poland, say it’s tough to draw firm conclusions from this year’s exercises. “One scenario is that Russia doesn’t really have the time to do a proper Zapad exercise this year, with most of its forces engaged in Ukraine,” Muzyka explained. But he also warned that the lack of information could mean Russia and Belarus are “obfuscating what’s happening in Belarus and the scenarios they are practising.”
Belarus’s role in Russia’s military strategy has only deepened. The country provided its territory for Moscow’s initial assault on Ukraine in February 2022 and has supplied the Russian army with clothing, gear, and equipment. Although Lukashenko has resisted Kremlin pressure to send his own troops into Ukraine—a move that would be deeply unpopular at home—Belarus’s military has become increasingly integrated with Russia’s. A sweeping security treaty signed in December 2024 placed Minsk under Russia’s nuclear umbrella, and this year, Russia’s Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles are set to be deployed in Belarus.
“You could say the Belarusian armed forces are an extension of Russia’s western military district, and you wouldn’t be far from the truth. They cooperate at every level—tactical, operational, strategic. Belarus is essentially a forward-deployed logistics base for Russian forces,” Muzyka told The Guardian. Still, military experts like Aleksander Alesin in Minsk believe it’s highly unlikely that Belarus will join the fighting in Ukraine. “Ukraine has heavily fortified and mined all possible invasion avenues from Belarus,” Alesin said. “The element of surprise is gone. Meanwhile, Russia’s reserves are stretched out.”
For Lukashenko, the timing of the drills is delicate. After a brutal crackdown on dissent following the widely condemned 2020 elections, he’s become a pariah in Europe and increasingly dependent on Moscow. Yet, ever the political survivor, Lukashenko has recently made overtures to the US, positioning himself as a possible go-between for Washington and Moscow to help end the war in Ukraine. These efforts seemed to pay off last week when Belarus secured limited US sanctions relief for its national airline, after Lukashenko ordered the release of more than 50 prisoners, including a British-Belarusian woman.
Back in Borisov, the city closest to the training grounds, the mood was less about geopolitics and more about hope for peace. Most residents paid little attention to the drills, voicing instead their desire that Belarus avoid direct involvement in the Ukraine conflict. Tatyana, a local librarian, lamented the country’s growing isolation since the post-election crackdown and the arrival of western sanctions. “I just hope things go back to normal,” she said. “We want to have dialogue with the west again.”
Amid the thunder of tanks and the swirl of international intrigue, one thing is clear: the Zapad-2025 exercises have put Belarus—and its uneasy partnership with Russia—squarely back in the global spotlight. Whether this signals a new era of confrontation or a fleeting show of strength remains to be seen, but for now, Europe is watching—and waiting.