In recent months, the remote Russian archipelago of Novaya Zemlya has become a hive of activity, with earthmoving trucks, shipping containers, and heavy-lift aircraft converging on the windswept outpost. According to RFE/RL, satellite imagery and open-source intelligence from July and August 2025 reveal a surge in construction and logistical operations at the Pankovo test range and the nearby Rogachevo air base. The timing, coinciding with the long Arctic days and favorable weather, has fueled speculation among weapons analysts: Russia may be preparing (or has already conducted) a new test of its infamous nuclear-powered cruise missile, the Burevestnik—known to NATO as Skyfall.
The Burevestnik has been under development for over a decade and stands out for its audacious engineering. As described in a 2019 Nuclear Threat Initiative report, the missile is powered by a miniature nuclear reactor embedded in its engine, in theory granting it the ability to stay airborne for days at a time. Its design is as ambitious as it is chilling: to carry a nuclear warhead, fly at low altitudes to evade missile defenses, and deliver its payload at unpredictable locations around the globe. U.S. intelligence reports confirm that Russia has tested the Burevestnik at least a dozen times since 2017, though the path has been fraught with mishaps and tragedy.
One of the most notorious incidents occurred in August 2019 near the town of Nyonoksa, on the shores of the White Sea. While attempting to recover a Burevestnik from the seabed, an explosion released radiation over a broad area, including the port city of Severodvinsk. The blast killed at least five nuclear specialists from Rosatom, Russia’s state-owned nuclear company, which is believed to be at the forefront of the missile’s development. U.S. officials concluded that the disaster was "the result of a nuclear reaction that occurred during the recovery of a Russian nuclear-powered cruise missile." Two years earlier, another Burevestnik is believed to have crashed into the Barents Sea, west of Novaya Zemlya.
Despite the setbacks, Russia has pressed forward. "They've been developing this system for well over a decade. And it hasn't really gone very well for a long time," Decker Eveleth of the Center for Naval Analyses told RFE/RL. "People died…and they didn't give up. They kept going for it…. They kept going for it for 15 years. And they are really dedicated to it." Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based arms control researcher, added, "They're clearly pretty far along. I wouldn't be surprised if the test has already happened."
The renewed activity at Novaya Zemlya this summer included the release of a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) by Russian authorities in early August, warning pilots and ships to avoid a wide area west of the archipelago—a move first reported by the Barents Observer. The Rogachevo air base, typically quiet, saw an influx of fighter jets, cargo planes, and helicopters, including an A-50 airborne radar and Il-76 SKIP jets designed for gathering electronic signals and missile telemetry. Meanwhile, open-source aircraft trackers spotted a U.S. Air Force WC-135 Constant Phoenix jet patrolling the airspace north of the Kola Peninsula and west of Novaya Zemlya. The Constant Phoenix is designed to detect radioactive isotopes in the atmosphere, a telltale sign of nuclear weapons testing.
By late August, satellite imagery showed that equipment at the Pankovo site had been packed up, suggesting that whatever testing was planned may have already taken place. The timing of these events was notable, too: Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Sarov—the historic heart of Russia’s nuclear weapons program—on August 22, accompanied by top military and nuclear officials. According to Podvig, "The combination of all these things—the test activity, the apparent preparation for deployment, and this visit—again this would be a good occasion for Putin, for the Sarov [engineers] to demonstrate that this is what we've done, we've fulfilled the assignment."
The Burevestnik is just one of several next-generation weapons systems Russia has pursued in a shadowy arms race with the United States. Others include the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, the Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedo, and the Avangard hypersonic missile. While some, like the Kinzhal and Tsirkon missiles, have already been used in Ukraine, the Burevestnik’s unique nuclear propulsion and global reach have drawn particular attention—and concern—from Western intelligence and arms control experts.
But why is the development of such a weapon such a big deal for the Kremlin? Eveleth explained to RFE/RL, "First, the sophistication and prestige of the Russian nuclear arsenal is very important" to Putin and his government. "Second, they're worried about [US] missile defenses, they want to hedge against an effective missile shield and this system is technically capable of evading certain systems."
This escalating technological brinkmanship is not confined to Russian ambitions. As Bruce K. Gagnon, coordinator of the Global Network Against Weapons & Nuclear Power in Space, wrote in a recent commentary, the United States has long sought to dominate space as the next strategic frontier. He cites the U.S. Space Command’s internal document "Vision for 2020," which declared the intent to "control space, dominate space and deny other nations access to space." Gagnon argues that this posture—embraced by both Democratic and Republican administrations—has fueled an arms race in space, with China and Russia pushing back against what they see as U.S. attempts to become the "Master of Space."
For more than thirty years, China and Russia have introduced the Prevention of an Arms Race in Space (PAROS) treaty at the United Nations. The measure passes overwhelmingly at the General Assembly, with the United States and Israel consistently voting "No." When the treaty proposal reaches the Geneva Conference on Disarmament, the U.S. and Israel block negotiations, maintaining that "there are no weapons in space, we don’t need a new treaty." Gagnon’s group, meanwhile, warns that delay is dangerous: "Close the door to the barn before the horse gets out."
NASA has also raised the alarm about the risks of a space conflict, warning that the destruction of satellites could trigger the Kessler Syndrome—a cascading field of space debris that might render large swathes of orbit unusable and disrupt the satellite-dependent infrastructure that underpins modern life. The Pentagon, for its part, has developed contingency plans to rapidly launch military mini-satellites into orbit during a crisis, ensuring continued dominance even if existing assets are destroyed. According to Gagnon, "One such potential launch provider is bluShift Aerospace in Brunswick." The CEO of bluShift, he notes, confirmed that the company receives funding from NASA and the U.S. Space Force for precisely this purpose: to replace destroyed satellites and keep adversaries from crowding low Earth orbit.
The race to develop ever more advanced and unpredictable weapons—whether nuclear-powered cruise missiles or orbital mini-satellites—reflects a world where technological ambition and national prestige are tightly intertwined. Yet, as the recent flurry of activity in the Russian Arctic and the ongoing diplomatic stalemate at the United Nations show, the risks of escalation and miscalculation are growing. As Gagnon warns, "We delay such a move at our own peril."
The coming months will reveal whether the world’s major powers can find a way to rein in these dangerous innovations—or whether the pursuit of supremacy, on earth and in space, will continue unchecked.