On January 31, 2026, the Southern District Military Court in Rostov-on-Don delivered a verdict that sent shockwaves across Ukraine and Russia alike. Nine Ukrainian men, dubbed the "Kherson Nine," were sentenced to lengthy prison terms ranging from 14 to 20 years in strict-regime penal colonies, according to the independent outlet Медіазона. The court’s decision punctuates a tense moment in the ongoing conflict, as both sides brace for what could be decisive developments in the year ahead.
The men—Kostyantyn Reznik, Serhiy Kabakov, Serhiy Heydt, Yuriy Kaiov, Denys Lialka, Oleh Bohdanov, Yuriy Tavozhnyansky, Serhiy Ofitserov, and Serhiy Kovalsky—were accused by Russian authorities of participating in a terrorist organization and plotting attacks against pro-Russian officials in the occupied Kherson region during the spring and summer of 2022. The prosecution alleged that these plans included targeting high-profile collaborators such as Kirill Stremousov, the deputy head of the pro-Russian administration, and former customs chief Vitaliy Bulyuk.
The sentences were severe: Reznik and Kabakov each received 20 years, with a minimum period of imprisonment during the first five years. Heydt, Ofitserov, and Kovalsky were sentenced to 17 years, while Bohdanov and Tavozhnyansky received 18 years. Kaiov and Lialka were handed 14-year terms. All sentences included a mandatory five-year period of confinement in strict-regime conditions.
The case has been closely watched since its inception at the end of 2023. According to Медіазона, all nine men were detained on October 6, 2022, in Simferopol. However, footage of the detention of Reznik, Kabakov, and Bogdanov had already surfaced in television news broadcasts as early as August that year, raising questions about the timeline and transparency of the proceedings.
What unfolded in court was a disturbing account of alleged mistreatment. Every member of the Kherson Nine claimed they had been abducted between July and September 2022 and subjected to prolonged torture in the basement of the former Kherson Police Department. The men said they were pressured to confess, and in court, they refused to retract their statements. Instead, they asserted that Russian security forces had threatened to torture their relatives unless they signed confessions and participated in what were described as "operational-search activities."
Perhaps most strikingly, Serhiy Kovalsky—a Ukrainian Armed Forces serviceman—asked Judge Kyrylo Kryvtsov to be recognized as a prisoner of war. The request was denied. Kryvtsov stated, "Such a status is not provided for under the Russian Criminal Procedure Code." The denial underscored the legal limbo faced by Ukrainian detainees in Russian courts, where international norms and protections for combatants are often disregarded.
With the verdicts now final, the fate of the Kherson Nine appears sealed, at least for the foreseeable future. Their sentencing comes at a pivotal juncture in the broader war, as Russian analysts and officials project confidence in their military and political trajectory.
On February 1, 2026, Russian political analyst Marat Bashirov spoke to the newspaper Vzglyad, offering a stark assessment of the conflict’s trajectory. Bashirov argued that Russia has built significant momentum on the battlefield, particularly during the autumn and winter of 2025, and that Ukraine lacks the economic capacity to halt further Russian advances. "Russia has built a strong foundation for further advances deep into enemy territory," Bashirov told Vzglyad, pointing to the steady capture of settlements despite harsh weather conditions. He predicted that the groundwork laid during this period would allow Russian forces to "significantly accelerate their advance by late spring."
Bashirov’s analysis did not stop at military matters. He painted a grim picture of Ukraine’s economic and energy situation, stating that the country’s functioning "depends on an economy that is effectively frozen." He highlighted the destruction of Ukraine’s energy system, which has left large areas without electricity and forced many factories and production facilities to stand idle. As a result, business activity has ground to a halt, state budget revenues have plummeted, and domestic income is "close to zero."
"Under these conditions, the country can survive only on external funding, while the resources of foreign sponsors are not unlimited," Bashirov said. He questioned whether European Union countries could sustain the financial burden of supporting Ukraine over the long term. To illustrate this, he cited statements from IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who has called on Kyiv to increase budget revenues despite the lack of realistic sources to do so.
The Kremlin, too, has adopted a tone of steady resolve. In response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s vow not to "surrender Donbass without a fight," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the press that "the dynamics on the battlefield speak for themselves and require little additional comment." In December, Russian President Vladimir Putin doubled down on Moscow’s objectives, declaring that Russia is prepared to achieve its goals by military means if diplomacy fails. Putin insisted that Moscow has always sought diplomatic solutions, even in the most difficult circumstances, and placed the blame for missed opportunities on those who "believed they could speak to Moscow in the language of force." He emphasized that Russia would pursue the "liberation of its historical territories by military means while consistently expanding a security buffer zone" if substantive dialogue is rejected.
Meanwhile, the global media landscape is abuzz with speculation about how and when the war might end. According to The Wall Street Journal, confidential U.S. proposals have floated the possibility of recognizing Crimea as Russian and blocking Ukraine’s accession to NATO—scenarios described as a "de facto capitulation of Ukraine." While these reports remain unconfirmed, they underscore the growing sense that the conflict’s endgame may be approaching.
The sentencing of the Kherson Nine and the pronouncements from Moscow’s political class highlight the deepening chasm between the two sides. For the families of the convicted, the verdicts are a bitter pill, especially in light of the torture allegations and the denial of prisoner-of-war status. For Russian authorities, however, the convictions serve as a warning to others and a demonstration of their control over occupied territories.
As 2026 unfolds, both the fate of individual prisoners and the broader direction of the war remain uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the stakes have never been higher—for Ukraine, for Russia, and for the international community watching from the sidelines.