The Houston Rockets are rolling into Dallas with confidence, ambition, and a hot streak that has fans buzzing across Texas. On Saturday, January 3, 2026, the Rockets (21-10) will square off against the Dallas Mavericks (12-23) at American Airlines Center, with tip-off set for 8:30 p.m. ET. The stakes? Houston is eyeing a fifth consecutive victory, while Dallas is desperate to snap a four-game losing skid and restore some pride in front of their home crowd.
This isn’t just another regular-season matchup—it’s the latest chapter of the I-45 Rivalry, pitting two Southwest Division foes against each other at a pivotal point in the season. The Rockets, sitting second in the division, have found their groove, while the Mavericks are struggling to stay afloat after a rough December and a bruising start to the new year.
Houston’s recent form has been nothing short of impressive. Their four-game winning streak includes a commanding victory over the Brooklyn Nets on New Year’s Day, and the team’s current momentum has them positioned to potentially lock up a top-three seed in the Western Conference. As one analyst put it, “The Houston Rockets have an opportunity right now to effectively seal a top-three seed in the Western Conference, if not secure a top-two seed. They cannot take any opponents lightly. That includes the Dallas Mavericks, even if Dallas has hit a spiral that will send it back into the lottery.”
On the flip side, Dallas has been reeling. The Mavericks have dropped seven of their last eight games and are fresh off a lopsided defeat at the hands of the Philadelphia 76ers. Injuries have played a major role in their struggles. Key contributors like Kyrie Irving (knee), Dereck Lively II (foot), and Dante Exum (knee) are all sidelined, while D’Angelo Russell’s availability remains uncertain due to illness. The lone bright spot? The Mavericks have a mostly clean injury report outside of those long-term absences, offering a glimmer of hope for a shakeup.
Houston isn’t without its own injury woes. Fred VanVleet, a crucial backcourt presence, is out for the season with a torn ACL. Steven Adams is nursing an ankle sprain and is listed as questionable, while Clint Capela is also dealing with illness. Despite these setbacks, head coach Ime Udoka has managed to keep his squad focused and resilient, leaning on a deep rotation and the star power of Alperen Sengun.
Sengun, the Rockets’ dynamic center, is projected to have another big night. Averaging 22.6 points per game this season, Sengun is expected to surpass the 20.5-point prop set by oddsmakers. He’s hit the over in 14 of 26 games so far, and his recent performances suggest he’s eager to make a statement, especially after missing the first meeting with Dallas earlier this season. As one preview noted, “Backing Alperen Şengün to break out of his slump is essentially a bet on his motivation to make a statement against the likely Rookie of the Year after missing the Houston Rockets' first meeting with Dallas.”
From a betting perspective, the Rockets enter the night as 8 to 8.5-point favorites, depending on the sportsbook. The spread reflects both Houston’s recent dominance and Dallas’s ongoing struggles. The Rockets are 18-13-0 against the spread this season and 6-6 as favorites of 8.5 points or more. Dallas, meanwhile, is 16-19-0 against the spread but has been more competitive as significant underdogs, going 6-3 in such situations. Still, the Mavericks have failed to cover in their last seven games, falling short of expectations by an average of 5.6 points per contest.
The over/under is set at 227.5 points, with many analysts predicting a high-scoring affair. Houston’s games have averaged 228.5 total points this season, and Dallas’s games have been even more explosive, averaging 230.7 points. Both teams have routinely surpassed the 227.5 mark, and the projected total for this matchup is 231.7 points. The Rockets’ offense, averaging 120.5 points per game, will test a Mavericks defense that allows 117.9 points on average. Dallas, for its part, puts up 113.6 points per game—just enough to keep things interesting if their shooters catch fire.
Lineup decisions could play a critical role in the outcome. Dallas is expected to roll out a "big boy" starting five: Cooper Flagg at point guard, Max Christie at shooting guard, with PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford, and Anthony Davis rounding out the frontcourt. It’s a bold move aimed at disrupting Houston’s rhythm and taking advantage of their own size. The Rockets, meanwhile, will rely heavily on Sengun, with supporting roles from key contributors as they look to maintain their up-tempo, high-scoring style.
Cooper Flagg, the Mavericks’ rookie point guard, has seen his assist numbers climb in recent weeks—averaging 6.1 assists over his last 10 games—but his shooting efficiency has dipped. Oddsmakers are watching his performance closely, setting his props at over 4.5 assists and under 19.5 points for the night. If Flagg can orchestrate the offense and keep turnovers to a minimum, Dallas could keep things closer than the odds suggest.
Historically, the Rockets and Mavericks have split their season series so far, with each team claiming a win. The last encounter saw Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant (now with Houston) lead their respective squads in scoring. Tonight, both teams will be looking to swing the rivalry in their favor, with the Rockets hoping to solidify their place near the top of the West and the Mavericks fighting to keep their postseason hopes alive.
For fans eager to catch the action, the game will be broadcast on SCHN and KFAA, with streaming options available via Fubo and NBA League Pass. Regional restrictions may apply, but the excitement of this Texas showdown will be hard to miss for anyone tuned in.
As tip-off approaches, all eyes are on the American Airlines Center. Will the Rockets continue their impressive surge and edge closer to the top of the Western Conference, or can the Mavericks finally halt their slide and reclaim some momentum in front of their loyal fans? One thing’s for sure: the Battle of Texas never disappoints, and tonight’s clash promises plenty of drama, intensity, and maybe even a few surprises.
Stay tuned as the Rockets and Mavericks reignite their rivalry in a game that could shape the playoff picture for both teams. With injuries, streaks, and pride on the line, this matchup is set to deliver another unforgettable night of NBA basketball deep in the heart of Texas.