Rockets Face Pacers In Key NBA Showdown Without Durant

The Houston Rockets and Indiana Pacers squared off Monday night in Indianapolis, marking the second and final meeting between these two franchises for the 2025-26 NBA season. With the Rockets entering Gainbridge Fieldhouse as clear favorites, the contest promised intrigue for fans and bettors alike, especially with both sides missing key contributors and looking to make a statement in their respective conferences.

Houston came into the matchup riding high with a 30-17 record, good for fourth in the Western Conference. Their recent form had been strong, boasting back-to-back wins over the Mavericks and Hawks and victories in seven of their last nine outings. However, the Rockets' momentum faced a significant test with star forward Kevin Durant ruled out due to an ankle injury. Durant, who poured in 30 points during Houston’s 126-119 win over Indiana back on December 29, was a critical absence. Center Steven Adams remained sidelined for the season after ankle surgery, and veteran guard Fred VanVleet was still recovering from an offseason ACL tear.

For the Pacers, the 2025-26 campaign has been a grind. Sitting at 13-36 and last in the Eastern Conference, Indiana has struggled to find consistency. The loss of Tyrese Haliburton to an Achilles tear has left a gaping hole in their offensive engine, and forward Obi Toppin was also unavailable due to injury. Despite these setbacks, the Pacers showed flashes of resilience, winning three of their last four games leading into Monday night and covering the spread in that same stretch. Their recent 129-124 victory over the Atlanta Hawks demonstrated the team’s tenacity, even as they continued to fight an uphill battle.

Oddsmakers had the Rockets as 6.5-point favorites, with moneyline odds hovering around -245 for Houston and +200 for Indiana. The game’s over/under was set at 219.5 points, reflecting expectations of a competitive, if not high-scoring, affair. Betting trends heavily favored the under, with Houston seeing the total go under in five consecutive games and 15 of their previous 17. Indiana, meanwhile, had seen the under hit in four of their last seven contests, and nine out of their last thirteen.

The Rockets’ success this season has been built on a balanced attack and stifling defense. Even without Durant, Houston boasted a top-five offensive rating and ranked among the league’s best in field goal percentage, three-point shooting, and defensive efficiency. Alperen Sengun has stepped up in a major way, averaging 21.0 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game. Amen Thompson has also made significant strides, contributing 18.2 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 5.5 assists on average. Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, and Tari Eason have rounded out the rotation with solid performances, helping the Rockets average 116.0 points per game and hold opponents to just 109.9 per contest—the fourth-best mark in the NBA.

Indiana, on the other hand, has leaned heavily on Pascal Siakam, who earned his fourth All-Star nod this season and is averaging 23.8 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 4.0 assists. With Haliburton out, Andrew Nembhard has taken on the role of primary playmaker, putting up 17.6 points and 7.5 assists per game. Bennedict Mathurin’s return to the lineup about three games ago has shifted Aaron Nesmith’s usage rate, dropping it below 15% compared to his season average over 20%. Despite a recent scoring uptick, analysts cautioned that Nesmith’s production was buoyed by hot shooting from deep—a trend unlikely to persist, especially against Houston’s tough defense.

Defensively, the Pacers have had their struggles, allowing 118.4 points per game (25th in the league) and ranking near the bottom in several defensive metrics. Yet, they’ve managed to defend the three-point line well, giving up the fewest average made threes per game and ranking third in opponents’ three-point attempts and percentage. This strength figured to play a role against a Rockets team that ranks 29th in three-point volume but seventh in accuracy.

Pregame analysis from multiple sources leaned toward a low-scoring, tightly contested matchup. With Durant sidelined, Houston was expected to face challenges generating offense, and the absence of Adams meant fewer second-chance opportunities. "The Under 219.5 (-110) is a strong play in Monday’s game. Houston will be without Durant’s team-best 26.2 points per game, so who will step up in his absence?" asked one expert, highlighting the pressure on Sengun and Thompson to carry the load. Meanwhile, Indiana’s offense, ranked last in the NBA in offensive rating and 28th in points per game, faced the daunting task of breaking down one of the league’s stingiest defenses.

Betting predictions reflected the uncertainty: while Houston was favored to win, some analysts suggested the Pacers +6.5 as a smart play, given their recent form and home-court advantage. One prediction had Indiana pulling off a minor upset, 110-104, citing Houston’s injuries and the Pacers’ recent surge. However, consensus held that the safest bet was the under, with both teams expected to struggle for points in a defensive battle.

Player prop markets also drew attention, especially regarding Aaron Nesmith. With Mathurin’s return impacting his usage and Houston’s defense posing a tough challenge, many bettors eyed the under on Nesmith’s 13.5-point total. "Even with those scoring lines, he still averaged only about 10 field goal attempts per game during that stretch. Now, he draws a very tough matchup against the Rockets’ defense," noted one analyst, emphasizing the risk of relying on continued hot shooting.

As tipoff approached, both teams were set to test their depth and adaptability. For Houston, the absence of Durant demanded a collective effort to keep their playoff push on track. For Indiana, the game represented another opportunity to build confidence and chemistry among their young core, even as the postseason remained a distant hope.

With the action underway in Indianapolis, fans and bettors alike kept a close eye on how each squad would respond to adversity. Would the Rockets’ defense and balanced attack be enough to overcome their injury woes, or could the Pacers capitalize on their home court and recent momentum to pull off an upset? The answers were set to unfold on the hardwood, with every possession carrying weight in this intriguing cross-conference clash.

As the night progressed, the Rockets and Pacers battled not just for a win, but for validation of their respective paths—Houston as a contender navigating adversity, and Indiana as an underdog eager to prove they can still make noise. With so much on the line, this Monday night matchup delivered the drama and unpredictability that make the NBA season so compelling.