After a year marked by rising violence and diplomatic deadlock, Afghanistan and Pakistan have found themselves at a crossroads once again—this time in the gilded halls of Riyadh. Over the first weekend of December 2025, officials from both countries gathered in Saudi Arabia for a new round of peace talks, hoping to find a way out of a cycle of deadly border clashes, militant attacks, and mutual suspicion. Yet, as with previous efforts in Doha and Istanbul, the talks yielded no breakthrough. The only tangible outcome was a reaffirmation of a fragile ceasefire—a truce that, while still holding, remains precarious and fraught with uncertainty.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. According to Reuters, the Riyadh negotiations were the latest in a series of meetings hosted by Qatar, Turkey, and now Saudi Arabia, all aimed at cooling tensions that erupted into violence in October. That month, deadly clashes along the mountainous border left dozens dead—the worst such incident since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021. Pakistani forces claimed they were responding to attacks launched from Afghan territory, targeting Taliban positions and militant training camps. The Taliban, for their part, dismissed these actions as violations of Afghan sovereignty.
At the heart of the dispute is the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group that has waged a bloody insurgency against the Pakistani state since 2007. Islamabad insists that the TTP’s leadership and fighters are operating out of Afghanistan, using Afghan soil as a staging ground for attacks. The Taliban government in Kabul rejects this accusation, arguing that they are neither responsible for Pakistan’s internal security nor in a position to guarantee that Afghan territory will never be used for such purposes. As one Taliban official put it, “We cannot be expected to guarantee security in Pakistan.”
Pakistan’s frustration has been mounting. The Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) reports that fatalities among Pakistani security personnel reached 685 in 2024 and nearly matched that figure in the first three quarters of 2025. Most of these attacks have been concentrated in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces, regions that have long been flashpoints for cross-border militancy. In just the first quarter of 2025, over 2,000 people were killed in armed attacks, making it one of the deadliest periods in a decade.
Recent months have seen a worrying escalation. In November, a suicide bombing outside an Islamabad district court and an attempted assault on a cadet college in Wana were both blamed by Pakistani authorities on militants operating from Afghanistan. Islamabad identified the suicide bomber who killed 12 people in the capital as an Afghan national. These incidents followed a string of high-level talks in Istanbul and Doha, which Pakistani officials described as “the last opportunity” to restore counterterrorism cooperation. But Kabul’s refusal to acknowledge the presence of anti-Pakistan militant groups stalled progress and ultimately led to the collapse of negotiations.
When the diplomatic caravan rolled into Riyadh, hopes were modest. According to officials from both sides, the Saudi-hosted talks ended as the previous rounds had: with an agreement to continue the ceasefire, but no lasting peace deal or written commitments. Pakistan pressed the Taliban for guarantees that the TTP and other outlawed groups would not use Afghan territory. The Taliban rejected this, reiterating that such demands went beyond their remit. “Islamabad says it wanted Kabul to provide a written commitment to take action against the anti-Pakistan militants. The Afghan Taliban says it cannot be expected to guarantee security in Pakistan,” reported Reuters.
Behind the closed doors of these meetings, the broader regional context loomed large. The Afghanistan–Pakistan crisis is no longer just a bilateral affair. India’s increasing engagement with the Taliban in 2025—upgrading its diplomatic mission in Kabul and hosting senior Taliban officials—has heightened Pakistan’s concerns that Afghanistan could become an Indian proxy. Both Kabul and New Delhi deny such allegations, but the shifting alliances have complicated Islamabad’s calculations. Meanwhile, Qatar and Turkey have acted as consistent mediators, and Saudi Arabia’s recent involvement signals a desire to play a bigger role in regional security.
For ordinary people, especially Afghan refugees in Pakistan, the diplomatic impasse has had devastating consequences. Since 2023, Pakistan has ramped up efforts to deport undocumented foreigners, focusing heavily on Afghans. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and media reports, tens of thousands of Afghans were forced or pressured to return in the first months of 2025 alone. The United Nations warned on August 29, 2025, that millions of Afghans could be forcibly returned to a country grappling with a humanitarian crisis and widespread human rights violations. By April 1, 2025, approximately 1.17 million Afghans had returned from Pakistan—many by force, others with some aid. Amnesty International’s research found that between September 2023 and February 2025, at least 844,000 Afghans were forced to return, often to an uncertain and dangerous future.
Women and girls are among the most vulnerable. Many had lived in Pakistan for decades, built businesses, and sent their daughters to school—only to be returned to an Afghanistan where girls’ education beyond sixth grade is banned. UN human rights experts have emphasized that the principle of non-refoulement, which prohibits returning people to places where their lives or freedoms are at risk, is a non-derogable standard in international law. Yet, in every escalation between Kabul and Islamabad, Afghan refugees have become bargaining chips—excluded from negotiations and largely voiceless in official statements.
Pakistan’s own strategy is shifting. With confidence in the Afghan Taliban’s intent and capacity eroding, Islamabad has moved toward a deterrence-driven counterterrorism approach, combining calibrated military responses with diplomatic pressure. As one senior Pakistani official warned, any attack originating from Afghan soil would “give [the Afghan Taliban] the bitter taste” of Pakistan’s resolve. This firmer posture is supported by a broad political, religious, and social consensus inside Pakistan, as voices advocating leniency on fraternal grounds have become increasingly marginal.
But even a tougher security stance cannot by itself resolve the underlying issues. For the Taliban, the stakes are equally high. Their government’s stability depends on internal cohesion and external legitimacy, both of which are threatened by ongoing violence, international isolation, and restrictions on women’s rights. The Emirate’s refusal to act against the TTP reflects a complex mix of ideological affinity, internal factionalism, and strategic calculations. These internal divisions make it difficult for the Taliban to offer verifiable counterterrorism commitments or to engage meaningfully with Pakistan’s security concerns.
Looking ahead, a few scenarios emerge. The most likely is the continuation of a fragile ceasefire without structural peace, with both sides reluctant to escalate but unable to resolve their core differences. A more pessimistic outlook envisions periodic flare-ups and tit-for-tat attacks, risking further displacement and instability. The optimistic path—sustained international mediation leading to a long-term political agreement—remains a distant prospect, requiring fundamental shifts in both Kabul and Islamabad’s approaches.
For now, the border remains a fault line not just between two countries, but across a region where rivalries and alliances are in constant flux. The Riyadh talks may have bought some time, but without addressing the root causes—militant sanctuaries, refugee rights, and regional rivalries—the ceasefire is little more than a pause in a long, grinding conflict. True peace will depend on whether leaders on both sides, and their international partners, are willing to listen to those whose lives hang in the balance: the refugees, the border residents, and the women and girls caught between two worlds.