In a move that could reshape the global mining landscape, Rio Tinto and Glencore have confirmed they are back at the negotiating table, discussing a potential $260 billion merger that would create the world’s largest mining company by market value. The talks, which resumed in early January 2026, come just over a year after previous negotiations between the two mining giants collapsed due to disagreements over valuation and the future of Glencore’s coal assets, according to Reuters and Anadolu Agency.
On January 8 and 9, 2026, both companies released statements acknowledging the renewed discussions. “Rio Tinto and Glencore have been engaging in preliminary discussions about a possible combination of some or all of their businesses, which could include an all-share merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore,” Rio Tinto said, as reported by CNBC. The parties’ current expectation is that any merger transaction would be effected through the acquisition of Glencore by Rio Tinto by way of a Court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement.
If finalized, the deal would see Rio Tinto absorb Glencore in an all-share buyout, resulting in a combined market capitalization of nearly $207 billion—surpassing BHP’s $161 billion and positioning the new entity as the world’s mining behemoth. The merger would not only dwarf competitors but also create one of the top five copper producers globally, a point of particular interest as copper demand soars to record highs.
The renewed talks are occurring in a climate of heightened merger and acquisition activity in the mining sector. Just last September, Anglo American and Canada’s Teck Resources agreed to a $66 billion merger, laying the groundwork for a copper-focused powerhouse. The Rio Tinto-Glencore deal, should it go ahead, would be the largest in mining history, according to Reuters.
Market reactions have been swift and telling. On January 9, Glencore’s London-listed shares surged nearly 10% after news broke of the revived talks, while Rio Tinto’s Australian shares fell 6.3%. The European mining sector as a whole benefited, with the Stoxx Europe Basic Resources index rising by 2%. The response hints at both investor excitement over the prospect of a global mining leader and skepticism about the deal’s potential risks and rewards.
Some investors are wary of Rio Tinto overpaying for Glencore, especially given the history of large mining mergers failing to deliver sustained value. “The share market tells you what you want to know. Investors are not happy with this,” said Hugh Dive, chief investment officer at Atlas Funds Management, a Rio Tinto shareholder, to Reuters. Dive added, “I like the concept of going to copper, but the record is dreadful for the big majors making acquisitions or even mergers. We’ve seen a lot of these big mergers occur at the top of the market, and they end up being very dilutive over time.”
At the heart of the negotiations lies a strategic pivot: both Rio Tinto and Glencore are doubling down on copper, a metal whose demand is expected to skyrocket by 50% by 2040, driven by the global energy transition and the rapid expansion of power-hungry artificial intelligence data centers. According to consultancy S&P Global, the world faces a looming shortfall of more than 10 million metric tons of copper annually unless recycling and mining efforts intensify.
The timing of the merger talks is no coincidence. Copper prices hit an all-time high of $13,000 per ton in the first week of January 2026, reflecting the metal’s central role in the shift toward greener energy and advanced technologies. Three-month copper prices on the London Metal Exchange were last seen at $12,702 per metric ton, according to CNBC.
Yet, the path to a deal is far from straightforward. One of the thorniest issues is the fate of Glencore’s coal business. Rio Tinto, which sold its last coal assets to Glencore in 2018, has since focused on cleaner commodities. “Coal would have to be divested to garner the support of the Australian shareholder base,” said John Ayoub, portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management, as reported by Reuters. Cole Smead, CEO of Smead Capital Management, echoed this sentiment on CNBC, suggesting, “The dirty, dirty business nobody wants to own is coal. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see Glencore do a tax-free spin on the coal business.”
Other challenges include regulatory scrutiny—especially from China, the world’s dominant buyer of industrial metals—and cultural integration between two vastly different organizations. Rio Tinto, the world’s largest iron ore miner, has undergone significant change since Glencore’s initial approach in late 2024. New CEO Simon Trott, who took the helm in August 2025, has steered the company toward leaner operations, focusing on four core product groups: iron ore, aluminum, lithium, and copper. Trott’s restructuring aims to cut costs and unlock up to $10 billion from non-core assets, according to CNBC and Anadolu Agency.
The cultural fit between Rio Tinto and Glencore is a topic of debate among analysts and investors. Andy Forster, senior investment officer at Argo Investments, believes the deal could work if the terms are right: “The biggest question mark would be the culture of the two companies as Glencore clearly has a trading background, is very opportunistic and results-focused, some of those aspects of their culture could actually be good for Rio,” he told Reuters. “I hope Rio stays disciplined but it makes sense to look at deals where value can be extracted by both parties.”
There is also the question of whether Rio Tinto, with its strong pipeline of internal high-growth projects, needs to pursue such a massive external acquisition. Tim Hillier, an analyst at fund manager Allan Gray, expressed caution: “It comes down to price, but if they have to pay a big premium there is a risk that a transaction could destroy some value for shareholders. Rio has a strong pipeline of internal high-growth projects. It’s not clear why they need to look externally for things to do.”
Under UK takeover rules, Rio Tinto has until February 5, 2026, to announce a firm intention to make an offer for Glencore or to withdraw from the process. Until then, the mining world is holding its breath, watching to see whether this historic deal will materialize or fall apart once again.
With copper’s future shining bright and investor scrutiny at its highest, the outcome of these talks may well define the next era for the global mining industry.
