The Indianapolis Colts’ 2025-26 season is set to conclude with a twist that nobody could have predicted just a few short months ago. Once considered a shoo-in for the playoffs after a blistering 8-2 start, the Colts now find themselves eliminated from postseason contention, preparing to play spoiler against the playoff-bound Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on January 5, 2026. The final game of the season will see rookie quarterback Riley Leonard make his first NFL start, capping off a campaign full of unexpected turns, emotional returns, and hard-earned lessons.
The Colts’ journey this year has been anything but ordinary. The team’s early success had fans dreaming big, but a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs marked the beginning of a six-game slide that ultimately dashed those hopes. The final blow came last Saturday night, when Houston’s win over the Chargers sealed Indianapolis’s fate, making their 8-8 record insufficient for a playoff berth. Now, with postseason dreams in the rearview mirror, Indianapolis will look to end the season on a high note—if not for themselves, then at least to complicate things for a division rival.
All eyes will be on Riley Leonard, the sixth-round rookie who steps in for the season finale. Leonard’s NFL experience up to this point has been limited, but he’s already shown flashes of promise. In his brief appearances, he’s averaged 2.76 seconds from snap to throw, a mark that will be tested by Houston’s ferocious pass rush. The Texans, ranked fifth in the league with 46 sacks, are notorious for making life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. Leonard’s mobility could be a difference-maker—he’s run for six yards on three attempts this season, though he did sprain his knee against Jacksonville. In the preseason, he showcased his legs with seven runs for 58 yards, hinting at the kind of dual-threat potential that could keep the Texans’ defense honest.
But let’s not sugarcoat it—this is a tall order for any rookie, let alone one making his first start against a division rival still fighting for the AFC South crown. Leonard’s arm strength and willingness to test defenses downfield have been noted, with an average of 7.4 air yards per attempt in his 33 throws this season. That matches the average put up by veteran Philip Rivers, who, in a storybook twist, came out of retirement at age 44 to help the Colts during the back half of the season. Rivers, who had been coaching high school football at St. Michael School in Alabama, was lured back by head coach Shane Steichen and franchise co-owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon for a three-week stint that saw him complete 58 of 92 passes for 544 yards and four touchdowns. Despite his efforts, the Colts couldn’t notch a win in any of his starts, and Rivers made it clear on the Up & Adams Show that his NFL playing days are now officially behind him: “I’m back on the bench. It was three fun and blurry weeks that nobody saw coming—not even me—and that’s it.”
Rivers’ brief return was as much about nostalgia as it was about necessity. The familiar faces, the same offensive system, and the end of his high school coaching season all lined up perfectly, as Rivers himself noted: “Everything lined up perfectly. If anyone else had called, there would’ve been no chance. It was because it was a place I’d been before, a team I knew, the offense was exactly the same, the same coach… I also knew our high school football season was over. All of that came together to create the perfect storm.” Now, with his retirement clock reset, Rivers will be eligible for the Pro Football Hall of Fame again in 2031, and he’s eager to return to coaching his sons at St. Michael School.
For Leonard, the challenge is clear: get the ball out quickly and avoid the costly mistakes that often plague rookie quarterbacks. Houston’s defense isn’t just about sacks—they’ve also picked off 18 passes this season, the fourth-highest total in the NFL. Four different Texans defenders have notched four interceptions apiece, so ball security will be paramount. The Colts’ own Camryn Bynum leads the team with four picks, but Indianapolis’s defense has struggled to contain opposing offenses, especially through the air.
The offensive line will play a crucial role in Leonard’s debut. Rookie right tackle Jalen Travis, who’s filled in admirably for the injured Braden Smith, will face his toughest test yet against Will Anderson Jr., a pass rusher with 12 sacks and 84 pressures this year. On the left side, Bernhard Raimann, still battling through an elbow injury, must contend with veteran Danielle Hunter, who leads Houston with 14 sacks and 67 pressures. If the Colts’ line can give Leonard time, they might just spring a surprise or two.
Running back Jonathan Taylor has his own piece of history within reach. Trailing Buffalo’s James Cook by just 47 yards for the NFL rushing title, Taylor could claim the crown if he breaks out against Houston. He’s already had success against the Texans this season, racking up 85 yards on 21 carries in their previous meeting. Taylor hasn’t topped 100 yards or averaged more than four yards per carry since his standout performance in Berlin, but with Cook’s workload in question for a Bills team with little to play for, the opportunity is there.
Special teams could also play a pivotal role. Ashton Dulin electrified fans with two kickoff returns of over 50 yards against Jacksonville, and Houston’s coverage unit has been vulnerable, allowing 26.6 yards per return. Punter Rigoberto Sanchez is on the verge of setting a franchise record for net punting average (44.8 yards) and could even finish atop the NFL leaderboard with a strong showing. Meanwhile, kicker Blake Grupe has been a revelation since signing with the team, making all seven extra points and eight field goals—including three from beyond 50 yards.
Defensively, the Colts have struggled mightily against tight ends, giving up a whopping 1,104 yards to the position this season. Houston’s Dalton Schultz, with 78 catches for 704 yards and three scores, is sure to be a focal point in the Texans’ attack. Wide receiver Nico Collins has also been a force, posting 71 receptions for 1,117 yards and six touchdowns. If Colts corner Sauce Gardner is available, he’ll likely shadow Collins; otherwise, the Texans’ passing game could feast on a depleted secondary.
Houston’s ground game hasn’t been particularly efficient, averaging just 3.88 yards per carry (28th in the NFL), but they stick with it, averaging 107.4 yards per game. Indianapolis, for its part, boasts a stout run defense—fifth in total yards allowed (99.4) and third in yards per carry (3.8). The red zone could be the ultimate battleground: Houston struggles to convert inside the 20, ranking 30th with touchdowns on just 45.1% of drives, while the Colts’ defense ranks ninth in red zone TD percentage allowed.
With the season finale upon us, the Colts have one last chance to shake up the AFC South and give fans something to cheer about. For Riley Leonard, it’s the beginning of what could be a promising career, and for the rest of the roster, it’s a final audition for the future. As the action unfolds in Houston, expect plenty of drama, a few surprises, and maybe, just maybe, a glimpse of what’s next for Indianapolis football.