As voters in Scotland and Chile head to the polls this December, a striking political shift is unfolding on two continents. Both nations, long seen as bastions of progressive politics, are now witnessing a surge of right-wing populism driven by public anxiety over immigration, crime, and the perceived failures of left-leaning governments. Recent developments in both countries reveal a growing impatience with established political orthodoxies and a willingness among voters to embrace parties and leaders once considered too radical or extreme for mainstream acceptance.
In Scotland, the winds of change are blowing through a country historically known for its progressive values. For nearly two decades, the Scottish National Party (SNP) has championed left-wing causes, from universal basic income to transgender self-identification. According to The Spectator, this era of progressive dominance may be ending, as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party gains ground in the run-up to the Scottish Parliament elections scheduled for May 2026. From having no seats in Holyrood, Reform UK is now poised to win a significant bloc of lawmakers, with some polls even suggesting it could become the main opposition.
This rightward turn isn’t limited to Scotland. In Wales, Reform UK made a surprising second-place finish in the recent Caerphilly by-election, while in Ireland, both Dublin and Belfast have seen unprecedented protests and riots against immigration, rattling their left-leaning establishments. Yet, it is in Scotland—where progressivism has been most entrenched—that the challenge to the status quo is most dramatic.
During Nicola Sturgeon’s decade-long tenure as First Minister, the SNP government opposed North Sea oil and gas drilling, increased welfare spending and public sector wages, raised income tax rates above the UK average, and promoted mass immigration. The government also passed controversial laws, such as the Named Person scheme, which sought to assign a state guardian to every child, and the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill, which would have allowed 16-year-olds to legally change their sex by simple declaration. The latter became a lightning rod for controversy after Isla Bryson, a transgender rapist, was placed in a women’s prison following a self-identification process. The ensuing political storm led to Sturgeon’s resignation in February 2023, and the UK government ultimately blocked the bill, citing concerns for women’s safety.
The unraveling continued. The SNP-Green coalition, formed in 2021, collapsed a year after Sturgeon’s departure, following a series of policy failures, including a failed recycling scheme that cost businesses tens of millions and a stalled plan to require homeowners to install costly heat pumps. The most significant casualty has arguably been Scotland’s net zero agenda. After hosting COP 26 in Glasgow in 2021, the SNP moved to effectively shutter the North Sea oil and gas industry, a sector employing nearly 100,000 workers. According to Offshore Energy UK, 1,000 jobs are now being lost every month, and Scotland’s last oil refinery at Grangemouth closed earlier this year, transforming into an import terminal for the fossil fuels the UK still relies on.
Reform UK has capitalized on public frustration over these policies, making opposition to net zero and mass immigration central to its platform. The party’s stance echoes Donald Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” rhetoric, much to the horror of Scottish nationalists and left-wing commentators who believed Scots were firmly committed to green policies. However, a recent Norstat survey revealed that 60% of Scottish voters support Reform UK’s policy of mass detention and deportation of illegal immigrants. Glasgow, which houses nearly 4,000 asylum seekers—the highest number in any UK council—faces mounting pressure over social cohesion and a chronic housing shortage. One in three children in Glasgow no longer speaks English at home, underscoring the profound impact of immigration on local communities.
Protests have erupted outside asylum hotels in towns like Perth and Falkirk, and even the SNP council in Inverness has opposed UK government plans to house 300 asylum seekers in Cameron Barracks. Responding to this shifting tide, current First Minister John Swinney has shelved the gender bill, promised an inquiry into grooming gangs, and is considering reviving North Sea oil drilling—a clear signal that the progressive era in Scotland may be drawing to a close.
Meanwhile, in Chile, voters are grappling with a similarly dramatic political realignment. On December 14, 2025, Chileans will choose between far-right candidate José Antonio Kast and center-left candidate Jeannette Jara in a presidential runoff. According to the Associated Press, Kast, an ultra-conservative former lawmaker, is leading in the polls and is widely expected to become Chile’s next president. His campaign has focused on radical measures such as mass deportations of over 300,000 undocumented immigrants, slashing $6 billion in public spending over 18 months without cutting social benefits, and expanding the army’s powers to fight organized crime.
Kast’s rise marks a stark departure from Chile’s post-dictatorship tradition of containing hard-right political forces. His Republican Party, however, lacks a majority in Congress, meaning Kast will need to negotiate with more moderate right-wing factions. This could temper some of his more controversial proposals, but also risks alienating voters who expect swift action on law and order. Kast has been careful to avoid topics that have previously dogged his campaigns, such as his father’s Nazi past, his nostalgia for General Pinochet’s dictatorship, and his opposition to same-sex marriage and abortion. When pressed, he insists, “my values remain the same.”
Chile’s left-wing government, led by President Gabriel Boric since 2022, has come under fire for its handling of crime and immigration. Although Boric’s administration has toughened border security, increased funding for police, and created a new public security ministry, public perceptions of insecurity remain high. While Chile’s homicide rate peaked in 2022 and is now falling, only 39% of Chileans feel safe walking alone at night, according to a recent Gallup survey—on par with Ecuador, which is grappling with a violent, drug-driven crime wave.
Jeannette Jara, Boric’s former labor minister, has shifted her campaign to focus on tougher border controls and crime-fighting measures. Yet, as sociologist Lucía Dammert told the Associated Press, “It has been very difficult for the Jara campaign to move [Kast] away from those issues.” Many Chileans, frustrated with both candidates, plan to cast blank ballots in the mandatory vote. As one voter, Juan Carlos Pileo, put it, “Both are too extreme for me. I can’t trust someone who says she’s a communist to be moderate. And I can’t trust someone who exaggerates the amount of crime we have in this country and blames immigrants to be fair and respectful.”
For others, the promise of restored security trumps concerns about human rights. Natacha Feliz, a 27-year-old immigrant from the Dominican Republic, acknowledged the harshness of Kast’s proposed family separation policy but concluded, “Let’s just hope that our security situation improves.”
Across Scotland and Chile, the message from voters is clear: the old political order is being challenged by new forces promising to address the anxieties of a changing world. Whether these rightward shifts will deliver the safety and stability their supporters crave—or simply fuel new divisions—remains to be seen.
