Capitol Hill is no stranger to change, but as the 2026 midterms approach, the Republican Party is facing a wave of departures that has political observers, party strategists, and even some lawmakers themselves on edge. The sheer number of GOP lawmakers stepping aside—whether for retirement, to pursue higher office, or simply out of frustration—has reached levels not seen since 2018, when Republicans lost control of the House. As of early December 2025, more than two dozen House Republicans have already announced their intention to leave their seats at the end of the term, and the tally is expected to rise as lawmakers return home for the holidays and weigh their futures.
According to Newsweek, the number of Republican exits now stands at 31, nearly double that of the Democrats, who have seen 17 lawmakers announce similar plans. The reasons for leaving are as varied as the lawmakers themselves: some are seeking new challenges, some are weary from years of legislative gridlock, and others are simply ready to reclaim their private lives. But whatever the motivation, the trend is unmistakable—and it is having a profound effect on the party’s prospects for holding onto its slim House majority.
“I’ve been here five terms now, and every midterm cycle, you continue to see that play out where there’s people that step aside. They’ve been here long enough, and they’ve decided they had enough,” Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.) told The Hill. “Some are tired of having to fight the swing districts that they’ve had. There’s a myriad of reasons. And some are just trying to move on to something that they might consider more fulfilling.”
The list of departing Republicans reads like a who’s who of Capitol Hill. Among those retiring from public office are Texas Representatives Troy Nehls, Jodey Arrington, Michael McCaul, and Morgan Luttrell, as well as Nebraska’s Don Bacon. Others are setting their sights higher: House Republicans Wesley Hunt (Texas), Ashley Hinson (Iowa), Barry Moore (Alabama), Mike Collins (Georgia), Earl "Buddy" Carter (Georgia), and Andy Barr (Kentucky) are all pursuing U.S. Senate seats. Meanwhile, Elise Stefanik (New York), David Schweikert (Arizona), Tom Tiffany (Wisconsin), Nancy Mace (South Carolina), Ralph Norman (South Carolina), Dusty Johnson (South Dakota), Randy Feenstra (Iowa), John James (Michigan), John Rose (Tennessee), Byron Donalds (Florida), and Andy Biggs (Arizona) are all running for governor in their respective states. Chip Roy of Texas is vying for the post of state attorney general.
The exodus isn’t limited to the House. Senators Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), and Thom Tillis (North Carolina) have also announced their retirements, further highlighting the sense of transition within the GOP ranks. The pace of departures is eerily similar to the 2018 cycle, when a comparable number of Republican retirements foreshadowed a blue wave that ultimately handed Democrats control of the House.
Political analyst Erin Covey of the Cook Political Report told The Hill, “Ultimately, the number of Republican retirements that we see compared to 2018—I would imagine it would be close to the same number when all is said and done.”
Frustration with congressional dysfunction is a recurring theme among those heading for the exits. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who announced she would resign effective January 5, 2026, cited her party’s handling of health care, foreign policy, and other issues as reasons for her departure. “Nothing gets better for the American people, no matter which way the political pendulum swings,” Greene argued in her resignation statement, as reported by Nexstar Media.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who has often clashed with former President Donald Trump, didn’t hold back in his assessment of the current state of GOP leadership. “Everybody in the Republican Party, with the exception of just a few, are consigned to be automatons,” Massie told The Hill. “They just have to do whatever Trump wants them to do. What fun is that, if you’re an adult? Most of my colleagues are successful people who worked really hard to get here, and then they find out you’re just a rubber stamp for the Speaker who’s a rubber stamp for the president. I don’t blame them for running for another office or going back home.”
Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) pointed to a “lot of dysfunction” in Congress, including a 43-day government shutdown and what he described as the “silliness of censure resolutions going back and forth.” He added, “I do think that there’s maybe some people who say, like, you know, at some point … if they feel like they can’t accomplish the things that they came here to do, then maybe that weighs into their decision.”
Family considerations are also playing a role. Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) noted that many of his colleagues are stepping away to spend more time with their families, a sentiment that resonates with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. But for others, the decision is more about the changing nature of Congress itself. As Rep. Don Bacon told The Hill, “If you’re not fired up about winning, that’s time to move on. And that’s how I felt.”
There’s also a sense among some Republicans that the turnover could be a positive development. Rep. Randy Fine (R-Fla.) suggested, “Fresh blood is good. … I don’t think people serving for 50 years is a great thing, so I think turnover is a good thing.”
Of course, the political implications of this exodus are front and center. While most departing Republicans represent solidly red districts, a handful—such as Don Bacon and David Schweikert—hold seats that are either leaning Democratic or considered toss-ups, according to the Cook Political Report. This dynamic adds another layer of uncertainty to the GOP’s efforts to retain its majority in the House, especially as both parties gear up for intense redistricting battles ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Amid all this, Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson is reportedly facing an internal revolt over his leadership, as reported by Newsweek. The party’s narrow majority only amplifies the stakes, with each departure potentially tipping the balance of power.
Not everyone sees doom and gloom. Former President Trump, ever the optimist when it comes to GOP prospects, posted on Truth Social: “We should win the Midterm Elections in RECORD NUMBERS.” Still, the chorus of departing lawmakers and the growing list of open seats suggest the road ahead will be anything but easy for House Republicans.
As the 2026 midterm elections draw closer, the Republican Party finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with internal divisions, leadership struggles, and a restless membership. Whether this exodus signals the dawn of a new era or the prelude to another Democratic takeover remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the halls of Congress will look very different come next January.
