As Florida heads into the last week of February 2026, a series of red flag warnings and fire weather watches have swept across much of the state, putting millions of residents on high alert for dangerous wildfire conditions. From the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic, forecasters are warning that a potent mix of dry air, low humidity, gusty winds, and ongoing drought have created a tinderbox environment where even a tiny spark could quickly escalate into a fast-moving blaze.
The National Weather Service (NWS) issued a red flag warning for a broad swath of Central West Florida, effective Monday, February 24, from 9 a.m. to 7 p.m. According to the NWS announcement on Saturday, February 21, this alert covers more than a dozen counties, including Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota, Pasco, Hernando, Citrus, Polk, Hardee, Highlands, DeSoto, Charlotte, and Lee. The forecast calls for northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph, with gusts reaching up to 25 mph throughout the afternoon. Relative humidity is expected to drop as low as 21%, a level that leaves grass and brush dangerously dry and ready to ignite at the slightest provocation.
"Warm temperatures, very low humidity and stronger winds working together significantly increase the likelihood that any fire that starts will spread rapidly and prove difficult to contain," the NWS warned in its official statement. Residents across the affected counties have been urged to take extra precautions, such as ensuring burn barrels are covered with weighted metal lids, fully extinguishing any outdoor fires, and avoiding outdoor burning altogether during the warning period.
The warning isn’t limited to Central West Florida. Over in Flagler County, a red flag warning is in effect from 1 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Sunday, February 22, with a fire weather watch extending from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. Neighboring Volusia County is also under a fire weather watch for the same period. The NWS cautioned, "Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended." Both counties remain under a burn ban due to the heightened fire risk.
The meteorological culprit behind these warnings is a strong low-pressure system developing along the eastern seaboard, which is ushering in a very dry and cold arctic air mass. This shift is expected to drive strong northwesterly winds and push humidity levels even lower. The NWS Jacksonville office explained, "This will result in critical Fire Weather conditions and may lead to extreme fire behavior and rapid spread of any existing or newly ignited wildfires." While the system could bring some rain, it’s not expected to provide much relief. Both Flagler and Volusia counties are forecast to receive less than a tenth of an inch of precipitation on Sunday, with wind gusts up to 26 mph near the Flagler County airport and 25 mph near Daytona Beach International Airport. Rainfall is likely before 1 p.m. in Flagler and between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. in Volusia, but the storms won’t be enough to ease the dry conditions.
Jacksonville and its surrounding areas are also facing a red flag warning on Sunday, February 22, with a fire weather watch in effect for Monday, February 23. The region is experiencing dry ground and gusty winds, both of which have elevated the fire weather threat. Highs on Sunday are expected to be in the 60s, with lows dropping into the 30s and 40s overnight. The situation isn’t likely to improve soon, as a widespread frost or freeze is forecast for Tuesday morning, with lows in the 20s and 30s. Despite a few showers overnight Sunday into Monday, rainfall will be under a tenth of an inch—far too little to make a dent in the drought that continues to expand across North Florida. The latest drought monitor shows the area of "extreme" drought growing each week, now covering most of the region.
For local residents, these warnings are more than just meteorological jargon—they’re a call to action. The NWS and local emergency officials are urging everyone to avoid any outdoor burning, no matter how small. Burn barrels should be properly covered, and any outdoor fire must be completely extinguished with water and stirred to confirm no hot spots remain. Even a single ember from a cigarette tossed from a moving vehicle can set off a wildfire in these conditions. The warning is clear: the margin for error is razor-thin when humidity is this low and winds are this strong.
Anyone planning outdoor work involving equipment, power tools, or open flames is strongly advised to postpone those activities until after the warning period ends. The NWS has also emphasized the importance of early reporting—if you see smoke or fire, contact emergency services immediately rather than trying to handle it yourself. Quick action can give firefighters the best chance of containing a blaze before it spirals out of control.
Although the red flag warnings and fire weather watches are set to expire in the evening hours, the risk won’t vanish overnight. Dry vegetation will remain a persistent concern until the state sees meaningful rainfall. The NWS will continue to monitor conditions and may issue updated guidance as the week progresses. Residents are encouraged to stay tuned to local forecasts and heed any additional warnings or burn bans that may be issued.
Looking ahead, the weather pattern offers little hope for immediate relief. High pressure is expected to dominate much of the upcoming week, keeping conditions dry and further exacerbating the drought. Another front could approach later in the week, but forecast models suggest rainfall totals will be minimal and insufficient to break the cycle. For now, Florida remains on edge, watching the skies and the landscape for any sign of smoke.
As the state grapples with these challenging conditions, the message from forecasters and emergency officials is simple: extreme caution is the order of the day. With wildfires able to ignite and spread faster than most people can respond, every preventative measure counts. For Floridians, vigilance and preparedness are the best defenses against a potentially devastating fire season.