The Formula 1 paddock is abuzz with anticipation as the 2025 season nears its dramatic conclusion, yet the futures of several key drivers remain shrouded in uncertainty. Chief among them are Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda, two racers whose destinies are intertwined with the ever-shifting plans of the Red Bull organization. With just two rounds left in the campaign and the Qatar Grand Prix looming, fans and insiders alike are eagerly awaiting official word on who will take the coveted seats for 2026.
Liam Lawson’s journey to this crossroads has been anything but straightforward. The New Zealander began his first full Formula 1 season with high hopes, only to be abruptly demoted from Red Bull’s main squad to Racing Bulls after just two rounds. While such a setback might have rattled less resilient competitors, Lawson responded with grit and poise, notching six points finishes and a standout fifth place in Azerbaijan. His tally of 36 points for Racing Bulls—compared to teammate Isack Hadjar’s 51—speaks to his consistency and determination, especially given the team’s fluctuating form throughout the year.
Yet, as strong as Lawson’s performances have been, his future remains anything but certain. “Your first year in F1 is the most important,” Lawson reflected recently. “It is really the year where you improve, whether you stay in the sport, and I think more guys probably lose their drive after one or two seasons of Formula 1 rather than multiple seasons. Once you secure a seat for a few years, you are known to be a valuable driver.”
Lawson’s words ring especially true in the Red Bull ecosystem, where the pressure to perform is relentless and timelines for decisions seem to shift with the wind. Initially, Red Bull had planned to finalize its 2026 driver line-ups by the Mexico City Grand Prix at the end of October. But as the season progressed, the announcement was postponed—not once, but twice. First, Helmut Marko suggested the news would come after the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Then, in a twist that only added to the mounting tension, team principal Laurent Mekies clarified that the big reveal would instead follow immediately after the Qatar Grand Prix.
“Just one more week of patience,” Mekies told Autoracing1.com in Las Vegas, a statement that did little to ease the nerves of those waiting in the wings. For Lawson, the uncertainty is palpable. “Honestly, I have absolutely no idea. I would expect it to be towards the end, if not at the end of the season,” he admitted when pressed about the timing of Red Bull’s decision. “Both teams are in a very important Constructors’ [title] race. And I think to give the best opportunity possible for both teams, that’s the reasoning of this [delay], I would say. But for that, I would say they’re going to push it as late as they can. But obviously, I don’t know.”
While Lawson waits, so too does Yuki Tsunoda. The Japanese driver, currently 25, has faced a rollercoaster of his own in 2025. After swapping places with Lawson and returning to Red Bull’s main team, Tsunoda managed to score 25 points—far fewer than his teammates and with a string of races without a single point. The pressure is mounting, and Tsunoda has not shied away from acknowledging it. “It’s just a similar situation as last year or even two years ago, so to be honest, I got used to it. That’s part of Formula 1,” Tsunoda said in Las Vegas. “The good thing is I had experience with that situation a lot of times. I know what I have to do for the next few races. In the end, those decisions I can’t control, right?”
Unfortunately for Tsunoda, the odds do not appear to be in his favor. The widespread expectation in the paddock is that Isack Hadjar, who has impressed with 51 points for Racing Bulls, will be promoted to Red Bull’s main team to partner the indomitable Max Verstappen. Verstappen, the only Red Bull driver already confirmed for 2026, is seen as the anchor around which the team will build its next campaign. Hadjar’s rise seems all but certain, leaving Tsunoda with few options. If the rumors hold true, his best hope may be a role as a reserve driver for Aston Martin, following Honda’s engine partnership and serving behind veterans Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll.
Meanwhile, Lawson’s prospects are looking up—if not quite secure. Multiple sources now suggest that he will be retained by Racing Bulls for 2026, not just for his solid results but also to mentor the team’s next rising star: Arvid Lindblad. The British-Swedish teenager is set to make his Formula 1 debut at just 18 years old, after a mixed but promising campaign in Formula 2 that included wins in Saudi Arabia and Barcelona alongside several crashes. Lindblad’s promotion is seen as part of Red Bull’s ongoing strategy to develop young talent, and Lawson’s maturity and experience make him a natural fit for the mentor role.
Should this scenario play out, Racing Bulls would field a fascinating blend of youth and experience in 2026, with Lawson guiding Lindblad through the rigors of a rookie season. It’s a testament to Lawson’s growth as a driver and as a leader, even as the Red Bull organization keeps its cards close to its chest. For Lawson, every lap in these final races is another chance to prove his worth—not only as a competitor but as a cornerstone of the team’s future.
As the Qatar Grand Prix approaches, the stakes could hardly be higher. The Constructors’ battle remains tight, and every point could tip the balance. For Lawson and Tsunoda, the outcome of these last two rounds may well determine the trajectory of their careers. The paddock is rife with speculation: Will Red Bull’s final decisions match the paddock’s expectations? Or will there be a last-minute twist in the tale?
One thing is certain: the waiting game is almost over. In just a week’s time, all eyes will turn to Red Bull as they finally unveil their plans for 2026. For some, it will be the start of a new chapter. For others, it may signal the end of a journey. But for now, the drama continues, and the grid holds its breath.
