As June turns to July in 2026, a dramatic weather divide is taking shape across Europe, with Ireland and the UK sitting at the epicenter of shifting meteorological fortunes. While much of continental Europe braces for another round of extreme heat, Ireland is experiencing a period of cooler, unsettled weather—at least for now. But forecasts suggest that both regions are on the cusp of significant changes, with the potential for record-breaking temperatures in the UK and a return to summer warmth in Ireland.
On June 30, 2026, Cork and Munster awoke to cloudy skies, light rain, and drizzle, a stark contrast to the oppressive heat gripping much of southern Europe. According to local Irish outlets, early morning gloom was expected to give way to sunny spells and isolated showers, with daytime highs only reaching 16 to 20 degrees Celsius. The night promised dry, clear conditions and lows of 13 or 14 degrees, while the following day, July 1, was forecast to start bright before cloud and patchy rain crept in along the southwest coast. Temperatures would hover between 14 and 19 degrees, cooler along the coasts, with a mix of sunshine and showers dominating the national outlook for the first week of July. Ireland, it seemed, was enjoying a brief respite from the heatwaves battering its neighbors.
But as the week progressed, meteorologists began to sound the alarm about a so-called ‘heat dome’ forming over western Europe. This phenomenon, as explained by Met Eireann and reported in the Irish Mirror, involves a large area of high pressure trapping warm air beneath it, allowing temperatures to soar. While Spain and Portugal could see temperatures top 40°C again, Ireland was not expected to experience such extremes. Still, the same weather system could push Irish temperatures into the mid to high 20s Celsius by early next week, marking a notable shift from the current cool spell. Met Eireann’s outlook for July 1-5 pointed to higher than average temperatures and lower than average rainfall, with the trend expected to continue into the week of July 6-12—though with a bit less confidence in the longer-term forecast.
Meanwhile, across the Irish Sea, the UK was facing a very different kind of summer drama. The Met Office confirmed that June 2026 had already delivered a new all-time high temperature for the month: 37.7°C at Lingwood, Norfolk. This followed a record-busting 36.4°C at Heathrow Airport just days earlier. And the worst—or hottest—may be yet to come. According to Professor Ed Hawkins, a climate scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, weather models were already suggesting the possibility of highs of 40-41°C in southeast England by July 7. "Just one possible outcome... but the GFS weather forecast model is suggesting 40-41°C is possible in the UK around 7th July. This is a long-range forecast with significant uncertainty, but the fact that we are even seeing such values fairly regularly in the forecasts is extraordinary," Professor Hawkins noted on social media.
Forecasting platforms such as WXCharts and BBC Weather echoed these warnings. BBC Weather predicted highs between 28 and 32°C in London, with the heatwave potentially lasting for 10 consecutive days from Saturday, July 4. The Met Office’s deputy chief forecaster, Tony Wisson, explained, "Although a return to heatwave conditions is looking increasingly likely for some areas, the likelihood of such extreme high temperatures or high levels of humidity as last week is currently low." Yet, WXCharts suggested that a third heatwave could arrive on July 7, with highs of 36°C in London on July 8.
By the weekend, high pressure from the Azores was expected to bring "warm or very warm conditions" across much of the UK, according to Tony Wisson. The daily forecast for London, as compiled by BBC and MyLondon, showed a steady climb: 24°C on June 30, 25°C on July 1, rising to 30°C by July 6, and peaking at 32°C on July 7 and again on July 10. Notably, Jim Dales of British Weather Services told MyLondon there’s a chance Tuesday, July 7, could even reach 40°C—a figure that would shatter the UK’s current all-time record of 40.3°C, set during the infamous July 2022 heatwave.
The GFS weather model, cited by the Mirror, painted an even more dramatic picture. On Monday, July 6, highs of 35 to 36°C were forecast across southern, eastern, and central England, with 31 to 33°C stretching as far north as Yorkshire and South Wales. By Tuesday, July 7, the model predicted highs of 40 to 41°C from Yorkshire down to London and across eastern England, with as many as 17 English counties—including Norfolk, Essex, Surrey, and Kent—potentially experiencing temperatures of 40°C or more. Although these projections come with the caveat of significant uncertainty, the mere presence of such numbers in respected forecasting models is, as Professor Hawkins put it, "extraordinary."
For the UK public, the prospect of another prolonged heatwave is both familiar and daunting. Last week’s record-breaking heat brought discomfort, health warnings, and disruptions to daily life. Now, as the Met Office and BBC forecast another 10-day stretch of temperatures not dropping below 28°C in London, many are bracing for a repeat. The Met Office’s official line remains cautious: while a return to heatwave conditions is increasingly likely, the likelihood of the extreme highs and humidity seen last week is currently low. Yet, with models showing the potential for temperatures to approach or even exceed 40°C, there’s a palpable sense of anticipation—and anxiety—across the country.
Back in Ireland, the mood is a bit more optimistic. While the coming days will remain mixed, with variable cloud, sunny intervals, and occasional rain or showers, the trend is toward more settled, warmer weather as high pressure builds from the south. Met Eireann expects temperatures to remain around or slightly above average, with the possibility of the mid to high 20s Celsius early in the week starting July 6. Rainfall is expected to be below average, and the likelihood of prolonged extreme heat remains low. For many in Ireland, this is the sweet spot: warm enough to enjoy the outdoors, but without the dangers of the record-breaking heat plaguing the continent.
As Europe heads into July, the contrasting fortunes of Ireland and the UK tell a story of a continent increasingly shaped by the extremes of climate. For some, it’s a chance to enjoy a rare spell of summer sun; for others, it’s a test of endurance against temperatures that once seemed unthinkable. Either way, all eyes will remain fixed on the skies—and the thermometers—in the days ahead.