South Korea’s June 3 local elections have already made history, with early voting turnout shattering previous records and igniting fierce debate among political parties, analysts, and voters nationwide. As the dust settles on the two-day early voting period—held on May 29 and 30, 2026—the Central Election Management Committee announced a provisional turnout of 23.51%, the highest ever recorded for local elections in the country. Out of 44,649,908 eligible voters, a staggering 10,498,411 cast their ballots early, marking a 2.89 percentage point jump from the previous record set in 2022.
The significance of this surge is hard to overstate. According to Yonhap News Agency, the early voting rate for the 14 parliamentary by-elections held in tandem with the local polls was even higher, at 24.12%. In that contest, 546,757 of 2,267,121 eligible voters participated. These numbers have set off a wave of interpretation—and speculation—across the political spectrum.
Democratic Party spokesperson Kang Jun-hyun was quick to frame the turnout as a public reckoning. "The people have expressed their will for political judgment against internal enemies and support for President Lee Jae-myung’s administration," Kang told reporters, emphasizing the symbolic weight of the high participation. Meanwhile, Jang Dong-hyuk of the People Power Party struck a more cautious note, stating, "Detailed analysis by region and age group is needed before declaring any party favored by the turnout." Still, he made it clear his party would focus on mobilizing younger voters in the crucial days leading up to the main event, saying, "We will work to ensure the 20s and 30s generation comes out to vote."
The regional breakdown of turnout reveals a country sharply divided in its political energy. According to the National Election Commission, Jeonnam and Jeonbuk led the nation with early voting rates of 38.95% and 35.05%, respectively—the only regions to break the 30% barrier. Gwangju followed with 27.83%. The Honam region (Jeonnam, Jeonbuk, Gwangju) as a whole posted a combined early voting rate of 34.14%, underscoring a surge of enthusiasm that far outpaced the national average. Jeonbuk’s early voting rate, in particular, soared by 10.64 percentage points compared to 2022, the largest increase in the country.
What’s driving this enthusiasm in the progressive-leaning southwest? The answer lies in fierce local rivalries and national controversies. In Jeonbuk, the gubernatorial race between Lee Won-taek of the Democratic Party and Kim Kwan-young, an independent expelled from the party over alleged cash distribution during primaries, has become a flashpoint. Former Democratic Party leader Song Young-gil publicly defended Kim, arguing, "It is contradictory for the party to exclude Kim and concentrate resources on Jeonbuk, especially since both Kim and Lee are people who would work with President Lee Jae-myung." The party leadership, however, shot back, accusing Song of "irresponsibly aiding a fake Democratic Party." The tension has only fueled voter mobilization in the region.
Elsewhere, the picture is more subdued. Conservative strongholds like Daegu and North Gyeongsang posted the lowest early voting rates—18.65% and 22.42%, respectively, with North Gyeongsang even seeing a slight decline from four years ago. Analysts, including those quoted by News Tomato, attribute this to skepticism among conservative voters, some of whom remain wary of early voting due to lingering allegations of election fraud. Yet, even here, there are hints of change: Daegu’s early voting rate rose by 3.85 percentage points, ranking fifth among 17 regions, prompting some to wonder if a "shy progressive" effect might be at play.
Seoul, the perennial battleground, saw a 23.84% early voting rate—just above the national average and up 2.64 percentage points from 2022. The Democratic Party is bullish about its chances in the capital, with party officials predicting a win for mayoral candidate Jeong Won-oh, citing both the higher turnout and a perceived shift among centrist voters.
The parliamentary by-elections have also been marked by intense competition and high turnout in key districts. In Busan Buk-gap, a closely watched race, early voting hit 25.57%, outpacing the national average. The contest pits Democratic candidate Ha Jung-woo against independent Han Dong-hoon and People Power Party’s Park Min-sik, with recent polls showing a tight race. Meanwhile, Jeonbuk’s Gunsan, Gimje, and Buan districts saw a remarkable 42.59% early voting rate, while Daegu Dalseong lagged at 17.56%.
As the campaign entered its final stretch, party leaders and political heavyweights fanned out across the country in a last-ditch effort to sway undecided voters. Democratic Party chief Jeong Cheong-rae barnstormed Jeonnam and Chungcheong, rallying supporters with the message, "Whether you like us or not, the Democratic Party is family—vote for us with that spirit." Jeong repeatedly promised that the party would practice "filial piety politics" if entrusted with the region’s support. After his southern tour, he headed to the pivotal Chungcheong region to shore up support where the outcome could tip the balance.
On the other side, Jang Dong-hyuk of the People Power Party targeted Seoul’s youth-dense neighborhoods, urging young voters to "stop Lee Jae-myung’s reckless governance." Jang explained, "This election is about protecting the future for the next generation, so we’ve chosen to campaign in places where young people gather."
The campaign’s intensity was heightened by the return of two former presidents to the political stage. Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, both of whom have maintained significant followings, hit the trail for People Power Party candidates. Lee was seen in Busan supporting mayoral hopeful Park Hyung-jun, while Park’s whirlwind tour included stops in Daegu, Daejeon, Chungbuk, Gyeongnam, Ulsan, and Busan. Park, now 74, was even photographed wincing from the strain of shaking hands with so many supporters.
President Lee Jae-myung, for his part, took to social media to encourage turnout, quoting Plato: "The price of apathy toward public affairs is to be ruled by evil men." He warned, "In a democratic republic, silence and abstaining from voting only give opportunities to those who could ruin the lives of you and your family." Lee also reminded voters, "The power of voting is stronger than you think," and spent much of May campaigning in the southeast, including Ulsan, Daegu, Gyeongbuk, Gyeongnam, Changwon, and Busan.
Yet, not everyone is convinced that high early voting guarantees record overall turnout. Political scientist Shin Yul of Myongji University cautioned, "There is no correlation between early voting turnout and final turnout." He pointed to 2022, when early voting rose, but the final turnout actually dropped to the second-lowest in history. Shin expects this year’s final figure to hover around 50%, close to the historical average.
Political analyst Choi Jin, speaking to News Tomato, suggested that the polarized atmosphere—fueled by the December 3 emergency martial law and the presidential impeachment—has pushed progressive voters to the polls in greater numbers. Choi added, "I expect final turnout to be high overall. In regions where early voting was low, such as Daegu, we may see a surge on election day itself, especially in closely contested areas."
As election day approaches, all eyes are on whether this early surge will translate into a decisive result—or if, as history suggests, much of the electorate is still waiting for the main event.